Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Ascot on Saturday

Recommended bets, Saturday August 9

1pt win Dazzling Dan in 1.50 Ascot at 13/2

1pt win Kasbaan in 2.25 Ascot at 8/1

1pt win Red Force One in 3.00 Ascot at 7/1

1pt win Spanish Archer in 3.35 Ascot at 7/1

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It’s going take a good performance to see off the three-year-olds in receipt of 4lb weight-for-age in the ITV Home Of Terrestrial Racing Handicap at Ascot on Saturday.

That’s not to say there isn’t an older horse capable of producing the goods and at the time of writing there’s actually only one youngster in the top five in the betting.

Theotherside is the horse in question and I expect he will eventually go off favourite for this having delivered on his promising runs in a lower grade at Windsor with a much-improved effort to win from Will To Win and Hamish Macbeth – both of whom reoppose – on Newmarket’s July Course last month.

He was backed like a well-handicapped horse that day (9/4 fav) and more than merits a subsequent 7lb rise.

He does go without Thore Hammer Hansen’s 3lb claim here, though, so the effective 10lb hike slightly puts me off at the prices. Admittedly, I don’t like taking that approach to apprentice riders and handicapping normally but Hansen is evidently brilliant value and will no doubt have lost his claim by the end of the year.

The obvious one is Andrew Balding’s Chil Chil, who will presumably be looking for some black type at some point and progressed markedly as a three-year-old last season. Her jockey expects her to improve considerably for the comeback run at Bath where I didn’t think she looked completely in love with the firm ground.

Perhaps she’ll prove well up to her mark of 85 (unchanged from Bath) in time but at a bigger price the bet has to be DAZZLING DAN (13/2 General), who we know for certain can win off his current mark having beaten the recent July Cup winner Oxted in a Newmarket handicap off a 1lb higher perch last August.

That was a career-best effort from the son of Dandy Man but it hardly came out of the blue after some fantastic earlier efforts at three, while he backed it up with a good final run of the year when fourth to Tinto over this course and distance.

It’s taken him a couple of outings to sharpen up in 2020 but that shouldn’t come as a massive surprise given trainer Pam Sly’s small string and relatively humble facilities. But Sly – who once described herself as “just a Fenland farmer” – is very capable when afforded the right ammunition and Dazzling Dan hinted at a return to form when staying on into fifth behind Nahaarr at Newbury.

That was a warm race, despite the form not immediately working out at Goodwood last week, and it’s an effort I can see him building on again here.

We’ll give the Dick Hern Stakes a miss with Veracious streets ahead on her best and likely to be odds-on, while Global Giant can go and win the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes, with John Smith’s Cup runner-up Certain Lad the only one half-tempting when it comes to opposing John Gosden’s five-year-old.

Newmarket’s Betway Sweet Solera Stakes also features on the ITV4 programme but for genuine betting opportunities it’s back to Ascot where KASBAAN (8/1 General) makes lots of appeal in the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Celebration Handicap.

He’s yet to register a victory on turf from seven attempts in total but has shown no shortage of potential in three starts on the green stuff this summer to suggest he’ll be and adding to his three all-weather wins before the autumn and winter roll back into view.

Last time out in the seven furlong International Stakes he belied wild odds of 80/1 to run a stormer in sixth despite having to make his challenge well away from the favoured stands’ side rail. Drawn five, he finished behind horses who came from stalls 19, 18, 20, 12 and 17, and in front of Mutamaasik who was drawn 14.

A further place back in the same race, Shelir was unlucky not to get much closer as he was also drawn low (three) and didn’t get anything like a clear passage when things hotted up.

He’s a pound better off with Kasbaan and clearly proving extremely popular in the betting but we still don’t really know if he’s got that killer instinct when it comes to a finish, and stepping back up in trip doesn’t necessarily look a positive move for him.

It’s a big plus point for Kasbaan, though, as he’s won at 10 furlongs and twice over a mile, while he was fighting all the way to the line here last month.

I’m not all that inclined to venture too far from the head of the market in the Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionare Handicap either, where RED FORCE ONE (7/1 General) looks solid and arguably a point or two too big.

He’s been mixing it in both codes since leaving Tom Dascombe for Paul Nicholls a couple of years ago and has shown up quite well in all three Flat starts for is current trainer. Those efforts have come at much shorter trips but he looks ready for the move up to two miles in this sphere based on a not-disgraced but one-paced fifth at Thirsk in June, since when he’s fairly bolted up in a handicap hurdle at Market Rasen.

The assessor now has him on 131 over hurdles so dropping him 2lb to 87 on the Flat looks a bit dangerous and I’d be amazed if he wasn’t jumping fences over longer distances at some stage so this sort of test should be perfectly suitable.

Megan Nicholls has gone close on the grey twice before so there’s no issue on that score and I’d much rather back a fighting-fit, in-form horse from a top yard like him than take a flier on Ernesto, Eddystone Rock or Island Brave.

To complete the set of relatively short-priced Saturday fancies for this column, top weight SPANISH ARCHER (7/1 General) makes the staking plan in the Thomas Hospice Handicap.

This might not be quite as competitive as it looks at first glance, with plenty of them having something to prove or simply appearing handicapped out of things.

So the Friday afternoon move for Caradoc, a horse who gets pretty well backed wherever he goes, is perfectly understandable. He’s a horse capable of defying a mark of 99 and I’d forgive him the bare result at York last time.

What I can’t avoid, though, is that he still pulls for his head early in races and stepping back up to a mile and a half will put even more emphasis on the importance of him settling into a good rhythm. I’m not willing to take the chance again, especially now he’s bordering on favouritism, and Spanish Archer gets the call.

I was surprised to discover his trainer James Fanshawe hasn’t had a winner at Ascot since 2017 (he’s 0-22 in the past two and a half seasons) because he almost made a name for himself readying them for the big meetings in Berkshire.

But it’s not enough to dissuade me from getting stuck into Spanish Archer, who had to be brave when beating Al Muffrih at Ripon a fortnight ago. That came on the back of a decent pipe-opener in a Doncaster race that has worked out well and, after just four career starts at the 12-furlong trip, there could be plenty more in the locker.

Fanshawe is certainly a master when it comes to late-maturing horses and the five-year-old has only gone up 2lb for winning a good edition of the Bell-Ringer, a rare slice of generosity from the handicapper which makes his price too big to be missed.

Posted at 1500 BST on 07/08/20

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