Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Saturday

Recommended bets, Saturday August 29

1pt e.w. Hunni in 12.55 Newmarket at 16/1

1pt win Shabaaby in 2.05 Newmarket at 11/1

1pt win Milltown Star in 2.25 Goodwood at 14/1

1pt win Tinandali in 3.15 Windsor at 16/1

1pt win Dragons Voice in 4.10 Goodwood at 40/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Not straightforward for punters looking to unearth big prices on Saturday, especially those focused on the terrestrial action, with ITV showing just the one handicap from a total of seven races from Newmarket, Windsor and Goodwood.

A mass amount of rain on Thursday evening turned the going at Newmarket from Good to Soft overnight and it’s seemingly not going to get any better than that at any of the three venues - Windsor is already in some doubt with an early-morning precautionary inspection called.

There’s more rain to come in Suffolk too but we’ll hope for the best and the standout bet at headquarters comes in the Close Brothers Hopeful Stakes, a Listed contest containing some familiar names from the major sprint handicaps earlier in the season.

The early market leader was Stewards’ Cup hero Summerghand but that’s not absolutely guaranteed to be the case come the off with Ventura Rebel and Sunday Star both attracting support through Friday afternoon.

They both have a bit of back class and history suggests they should be perfectly at home on an easy surface too, something that isn’t necessarily the case with the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained Jash, who is also prominent in the market despite appearing happier on a quicker surface in his younger days.

Going back to his early three-year-old form suggests he might not have masses in hand over Watan, given only a neck split them in the King Charles II Stakes, and Richard Hannon’s runner almost got the nod here but I’m slightly surprised they didn’t opt for Sunday’s Listed race at Goodwood over seven furlongs instead.

Preference, then, is for proper soft ground lover SHABAABY (11/1 General) who looks the one to be on at the prices.

He was well behind Watan and the rest when beating only a single rival home in a hot Newbury handicap in July, and that clearly represented a backward step following his highly promising comeback effort when fourth to Judicial in the Group Three Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.

The Chipchase was his first attempt in Group company and represented something close to a career-best effort so it’s way too early to be writing him off. Owen Burrows has obviously had issues getting the lightly-raced gelding on an even keel in the past, but it’s significant the Shadwell team are persevering and it’s not hard to see him bouncing straight back with conditions to suit.

Six furlongs on bad ground is right in his wheelhouse, one such example coming when bolting up in a five-runner novice over this course and distance two years ago, while he also seems one of the more likely candidates to track expected pace-setter Bungee Jump through the race.

That looks a potentially significant pointer as making up ground quickly from a poor position is not easily done on the July Course, especially when the ground is riding soft.

Shabaaby probably falls somewhere between handicapper and Pattern horse in truth but this Listed event fits the bill quite nicely ahead of a possible shot at the Ayr Gold Cup, providing they can keep him sound, with an autumn campaign surely on the mind of connections all along.

It's hoped the drying ground might just have been a bit lively at Newbury last time and at 12/1 I’m more than willing to find out.

Not many 71-rated horses will have made this column over the years but I can’t allow HUNNI (16/1 bet365 1/4 1,2,3) to go unbacked under Ray Dawson in the Close Brothers Invoice Finance Fillies’ Handicap earlier on the card.

Dawson has quickly established himself as a claiming rider to follow and his fine judge of pace has seen him record two winners from just four rides so far on this speed-favouring track.

He teams up with upwardly mobile trainer Tom Clover here on a Captain Gerrard filly who will absolutely relish the ground, as her pedigree suggests, and she won over six furlongs on soft here in 2017.

She’s got lots of experience at both Newmarket courses and was second in a very similar race to this here last August. That came off a 2lb higher mark and she’s looked in good nick again this time around, winning on the Rowley course in June before a fair fourth in hotter company at the July Festival, when recovering from a bad start to lead until the final furlong.

It didn’t happen for her when stepped back to a mile on quick ground since then but this is more her thing and she represents a good each-way bet against likely hot-pot Helvezia, who goes handicapping for the first time off 82 after dotting up in a weak Chepstow maiden.

She’ll love the ground too, but a lot of the others are unproven on it so Hunni should be there or thereabouts if running to form which seems more than likely.

Unfortunately, Goodwood’s Ladbrokes Celebration Mile Stakes could get messy with connections of Benbatl and Duke Of Haazard both bound to be inspecting the course quite closely.

If they end up running on an unsuitable surface and Century Dream goes off at 5/1 or bigger then he becomes a knocking good bet, but it’s a question of holding fire until the last minute with him to fully assess the depth of the opposition and his revised price if the field is dramatically weakened.

The four-runner Ladbrokes March Stakes doesn’t interest me much either, but there are some genuine soft ground performers in the Brian Chattaway Celebrating 50 Years At Ladbrokes Handicap – it could just be a question of which one brings his A-game.

There’s been money for Battered which looks pretty ominous and the softer the better for Cold Stare, who definitely has a race like this in him from his current mark, but it could be worth rolling the dice with MILLTOWN STAR (14/1 Hills, BetVictor), who is the outsider of the field at time of writing.

Perhaps that’s in part down to only one three-year-old winning the race in the past decade but it’s more likely punters don’t like the look of his 284-day layoff. Regular readers will know I try not to put too much emphasis on an extended period away from the track and, in certain circumstances, it can obviously be seen as a positive.

In this case we don’t really know enough about the horse in question in terms of a freshness angle as he was well beaten on debut last May, but you’d have to excuse any horse his first outing. He does return at a time when his trainer Mick Channon is in pretty good form, though, and he’s also got conditions to suit having signed off a 10-strong two-year-old campaign with a Listed victory on heavy in France at Chantilly.

He travelled exceptionally well that day before showing a really good attitude in the finish to hold off locally-trained filly Ellerslie Lace, who was fifth in the French Guineas this spring and returned to winning ways down in class on home soil last month.

Milltown Star has been gelded so there’s a chance he’s taken a while to come to hand after being operated on, but giving a 100-rated three-year-old time to fill out his frame is rarely a bad move anyway, especially one who copes well with end-of-season conditions, and he might prove up to the task against a bunch of grizzled older handicappers who are feasibly treated but don’t score particularly highly on reliability.

DRAGONS VOICE (40/1 bet365) is worth a chance at a massive price in the mile and three-quarter Ladbrokes Get Your Daily Odds Boost Handicap.

He looks to have possibly gone sour based on a couple of efforts so far this term, when effectively tailed off at Kempton and Haydock, but he won at 16/1 at Windsor on his third outing last year following two no-shows so might be worth another go.

The handicapper has cut him some slack, down 6lb in total since the start of the season, and another route to possible improvement is the fitting of first-time cheekpieces.

Menuisier is hardly prolific when it comes to reaching for the sheepskin but he’s 1-1 so far this season (1-8 overall), with the addition working wonders at Sandown for Gypsy Whisper, who has since followed up in the same headgear.

Like so many of Poet’s Voice’s progeny, Dragons Voice loves getting his toe in and in the grand scheme of things he’s still unexposed over this staying trip, an arena in which his trainer has excelled with the likes of Nuits St Georges.

If racing goes ahead at Windsor then I'll be having a small bet on TINANDALI (16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral) in the Group Three Gallagher Group Winter Hill Stakes.

He's been pretty easy to back since the time of declarations which can be put down to a presumption that he won't want the ground to get too bad. It's a reasonable train of thought given he was well beaten on his final start for Dermot Weld when the Cork going was officially Yielding to Soft, but we don't know for sure that was the reason (subsequently gelded) and he shapes like a horse who will go through a deep surface.

At the inflated price I'm happy to take the plunge as I'm convinced he'll end up a Pattern performer for David O'Meara, who has a track record of taking handicappers through the ranks into Group company.

Tinandali has yet to win a race for his current trainer but has run some mighty races in defeat including when third to Sky Defender at Epsom and when sixth to Sinjaari in the John Smith's Cup at York later in July.

He's 3lb and 7lb better off with that pair respectively so must have every chance of bridging the gap given he's still quite unexposed, while Jamie Spencer might just be able to eke a little extra out of him too.

What the horse is likely to receive, unlike at York or Goodwood in particular last time out, is a fair crack at things and there shouldn't be any real excuses when it comes to traffic problems. I just want to see him given a really uncomplicated ride to truly discover how good he is as he looked really promising for previous connections and hasn't gone down in my estimations this summer.

If he copes with the ground then he might just be the one to put it up to the penalised Extra Elusive and short-priced favourite Fox Chairman.

Posted at 1630 BST on 28/08/20

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