Value Bet Ben Linfoot's free racing tips for Royal Ascot 2020 day four

Recommended Bets, Royal Ascot 2020, Day Four

1pt e.w. Keep Busy in 1.15 Ascot at 11/1

1pt win Willabell in 1.50 Ascot at 8/1

1pt e.w. Royal Lytham in 3.35 Ascot at 33/1

1pt e.w. Indianapolis in 4.40 Ascot at 20/1

1pt win Al Muffrih in 4.40 Ascot at 11/1

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With Thursday’s rain turning the ground very testing at Ascot at least we know where we stand ahead of Friday.

It is soft and, while the markets have reacted accordingly in places, the type of horse we’re looking for is clear and striking a line through those unlikely to enjoy conditions makes it easier to whittle the shortlist down.

The Commonwealth Cup looks a good race to have a bet in as the market leaders Pierre Lapin, Golden Horde and Kimari could all have done without the easing of the ground and the rain has blown the race wide open.

At 33/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4) the one I like is ROYAL LYTHAM for Aidan O’Brien as he looks to have been seriously underestimated in the market.

He hasn’t run a bad race in his fledgling five-race career and he was a good juvenile, finishing seventh in Arizona’s Coventry Stakes in between victories at Navan and Newmarket, the latter in the Group Two July Stakes.

The pick of his juvenile form, though, came in the softest conditions he’s encountered in the Group One Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, where he got within a length of superstar Siskin in third while Monarch Of Egypt, a good second in the Jersey Stakes on Thursday, was second that day.

Gleneagles' progeny have a fantastic record on softer conditions and he looked right at home on them in the Phoenix, while he was sent off 14/1 for last week’s Irish 2000 Guineas on good to firm.

Sent to the front in first-time blinkers, he was travelling smoothly in first place two furlongs from home but was swamped inside the final furlong and was eventually beaten just over seven lengths in eighth.

However, that performance told us that he’d trained on and that he’s got a high cruising speed, so it’s not surprising to see him drop back in trip for this test.

Bred to get a mile, his stamina could be drawn out in the conditions and he makes each-way appeal at 33s.

Earlier on Art Power had the option of the Commonwealth Cup but Tim Easterby has decided to drop him back to five furlongs instead in the opening Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (1.15).

He’s got serious pace and he should be fine on the conditions, judging by his York win last year, so he could be tough to beat, but I do like the look of John Quinn’s KEEP BUSY against him at 11/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).

Drawn in 21 close to the stands’ rail, she’s by Night Of Thunder whose progeny love soft ground and she proved she did several times as a juvenile, when she was kept busy, including when winning a Listed race at Chantilly on heavy.

Her dam, Look Busy, was a tough sprinter who loved soft ground and Keep Busy looks cut from the same cloth; she seems to thrive on racing, and I like that she’s already got a couple of runs under her belt.

Last time out she bumped into what could be a another star sprinter for Godolphin in Lazuli, but she shaped really nicely in second, beating a couple of horses rated 104, and she wasn’t put up for the performance, remaining on 96.

She looks well treated off that rating and I hope she’ll give the favourite a real race.

The juvenile races are obviously trappy, but I do quite like the 8/1 (General) about John Gosden’s WILLABELL in in the Albany Stakes.

She showed lightning speed over six furlongs on debut at Yarmouth last week, with Frankie Dettori looking behind for his rivals on a few occasions, before she got caught on the line by William Haggas’ Kadupul.

She’ll have learnt plenty from that and this time you’d think she’ll get a tow into the race from Wesley Ward’s Flying Aletha, drawn two stalls away, so the roles could be reversed.

Obviously she’s one of several promising fillies in this race, but 8/1 looks fair considering her connections and how this could pan out.

I also think she’ll like the ground as War Front juveniles often do, with progeny of that sire operating at an almost 30 per cent strike-rate on official going that’s good to soft or worse at two.

Finally, the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap (4.40) closes the card and I want to back Haggas’ AL MUFFRIH in this at 11/1 (bet365, Hills).

His progress has been stunted by injury but I’m convinced that means we’ve got a well-handicapped five-year-old here off 97.

A winner off 91 at Redcar last May, he went to Haydock after that and was sent off favourite, but he slipped on the home bend and his surcingle strap snapped so he was eased home during the last half mile.

Off injured since then, the good news is he goes well fresh and I think this son of Sea The Stars will be just fine on the ground judging by his pedigree and his action.

Drawn out wide in 18, hopefully Tom Marquand can get a prominent pitch and though we are trusting his fitness after a long lay-off, that’s just the way things are at the moment and he’s got a superb trainer so I’m not too concerned.

In the same race INDIANAPOLIS makes each-way appeal at 20/1 (bet365, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).

James Given’s horse is drawn next to Al Muffrih in 19 and he’s a mud-loving son of Galileo who remains fairly treated off 99.

He won at Ascot at the Shergar Cup meeting over the course and distance off 95 in first-time cheekpieces last August and he followed up that win two starts later off 97 in heavy ground at Leicester.

His seasonal reappearance at Newmarket was satisfactory as he just got outpaced on faster ground than ideal in a good race and he wasn’t given a hard time once his chance had gone.

He should strip fitter on Friday and in ideal conditions he’s been underestimated.

Posted at 1700 BST on 18/06/2020

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