Royal Ascot tips & best bets: Value Bet preview for day five Saturday June 19
Irish Legend is Matt Brocklebank's final Royal Ascot selection as he looks to end the week on a high.
Royal Ascot tips: Saturday June 19
1pt win Light Refrain in 3.05 Ascot at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Raaeb in 5.00 Ascot at 50/1 (General)
1pt win Irish Legend in 5.35 Ascot at 20/1 (General)
Will there be a Royal winner at Ascot?
Given the situation with the going I can’t let The Queen’s LIGHT REFRAIN go unbacked in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on Saturday.
She only won one of her five starts as a two-year-old but barely put a foot wrong throughout her first campaign in truth and has taken her form to new heights this time around, starting with a Listed win against her own sex at Nottingham.
She was staying on with purpose when fourth – beaten just a length in total – behind Rohaan in the Sandy Lane Stakes on heavy ground at Haydock last time and that form was given a mighty boost by Dragon Symbol who was first past the post in the Commonwealth Cup.
The ground probably couldn’t get soft enough for the big daughter of Frankel and she has a nice set-up here drawn in stall eight with pacey Bellosa (five) to the inside and free-going Mehmento (13) on the other flank.
The fillies could well be the place to look in the Hardwicke Stakes too, with Wonderful Tonight and Albaflora both in receipt of 3lb from the colts and geldings.
That pair handle bad ground better than most in here too and ready preference is for David Menuisier’s runner, who has thankfully been kept in training after rounding off her three-year-old campaign with Group One wins at Lonchamp and here on Champions Day.
She was deadly for William Buick in the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes when last seen, sitting handily before sauntering to the front three out with the minimum of fuss and keeping up the gallop to the line.
The daughter of Le Havre belongs at the very top table on that showing and, in all fairness, it had been coming after she was fifth to Tarnawa on good ground in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last September.
Conditions look ideal for her back here and she was the clear bet at 9/1 when prices first went live after decs but she's now rightly made her way to the very top of the market after the downpours.
Who will star in the day-five features?
Unsurprisingly, nothing has been missed in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, with Glen Shiel and Art Power among those immediately trimmed in the betting after Thursday night’s deluge.
The latter, along with Starman and Nahaarr – the two who pulled clear of the rest – represent the Duke of York Stakes form which has already taken a major boost thanks to third home Oxted winning Tuesday’s King’s Stand Stakes.
Ventura Rebel didn't run badly there for Richard Fahey, while Final Song was well down the field on the Knavesmire but is clearly miles better than that as she was beaten just half a length by King’s Stand third Extravagent Kid on her previous run in the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan.
She has also got a bit of a history of bouncing straight back from a lifeless run having been second to Glorious Journey at Newbury last September after failing to beat a rival home at Haydock the month before.
Going even further back, she has Ascot-winning form on soft ground too but that was only a maiden on her debut in 2019 and trainer Saeed bin Suroor is on record stating she handles some ease but probably wouldn’t want extremes of going.
She’s the closest I came to a bet in the race so I’ll move on.
Who are the best bets in the Ascot handicaps?
The Wokingham Stakes seems to revolve around King’s Lynn getting the breaks as he’s the best-handicapped horse in the race and still well ahead of his mark despite the 5lb penalty for winning at Haydock prior to Tuesday’s huge effort when a touch unlucky (seventh, denied a clear run by the rail) in the King’s Stand.
The BHA were already due to put him up 7lb after the weights were published for this race and further 2-3lb wouldn't come as a surprise so he's most likely close to 10lb well-in once the official adjustments are made.
He has form on soft ground from last year too but a bad-ground Wokingham which may suit those who stay seven furlongs might not be precisely what he’s after.
Repartee catches the eye at a huge price for Kevin Ryan, who saddled the winner last year – the returning Hey Jonesy. Repartee was beaten half a length by King’s Lynn when giving him 7lb in a valuable sales race at Doncaster in September and he’s 9lb better off on this occasion.
He’s been in-and-out since then and now returns after a break following a breathing operation but the major snag with him is that he was withdrawn from last year’s Jersey after the rain arrived. So while his full-sister Parlance handled good to soft and his half-brother Fajjaj won a maiden on that ground here in 2017, specialist conditions will surely not suit Repartee at all.
All ground seems to come alike for thriving three-year-old Rohaan and he must be respected despite no winner of that age group since 1987 (not many make the cut), but at more than twice the price I’m with RAAEB from stall 1.
His trainer Saeed bin Suroor pulled a rabbit from the top hat with Real World winning Wednesday’s Hunt Cup from a low draw and this lightly-raced four-year-old could be well up to making an impact if coping with the ground.
It’ll be the worst he’s encountered to this point but plenty of his sire’s (Raven’s Pass) progeny have handled soft/heavy including the likes of Secret Number (for bin Suroor), Venturous and Jedd O’Keeffe’s Air Raid, who is also in the line-up here.
Air Raid isn't out of it at all off a mark of 97 but Raaeb is far less exposed and, after just the one public outing last year, got off the mark at the second time of asking in 2021 with a Chelmsford success (Punchbowl Flyer back in sixth) on April 22.
Wearing cheekpieces for the first time there, the headgear clearly didn’t have the same effect when looking to overcome a 3lb rise on much quicker ground at Newmarket last time. Jim Crowley also had to make his own running in a falsely-run race, which didn’t seem to suit at all.
Bin Suroor now replaces the cheekpieces with a visor (16-146, 10.96% strike-rate first-time visor) and being able to chase a guaranteed strong pace will definitely help the horse.
I’m far from keen to oppose the well-fancied Irish horses Falcon Eight and Stratum in the Queen Alexandra Stakes so the last bet is IRISH LEGEND in the Golden Gates Stakes.
A son of Sea The Stars, he has just a touch of the old man’s style about him in that he only seems to just do enough once he gets his head in front, resulting in winning margins of a neck, a short-head and a head.
The latest win at Newcastle from Chase The Dollar, when swiftly consigning a one-off no-show in the Sandown Classic Trial firmly to the past, was particularly cosy as he got to the lead over a furlong from the finish and just looked to be toying with his rivals from that point.
The handicapper was only able to give him 3lb extra for that, given it got so tight at the line, which could prove generous in time and connections have opted to switch the cheekpieces worn for the first time that night with blinkers here.
His trainer Hugo Palmer is perfectly happy mixing things up with the headgear and he’s got quite a tidy 3-10 record when moving from cheekpieces to first-time blinkers - Paris Magic, Rashdan and Fenjal the stablemates able to find a touch of improve for the switch.
At current prices it looks worth chancing Irish Legend will also benefit in the same manner.
Published at 1600 BST on 18/06/21