Weekend racing betting tips: Saturday, March 27
1pt win Qaysar in 2.00 Doncaster at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Global Esteem in 2.35 Doncaster at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Ascension in 3.10 Doncaster at 16/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
1pt win Born To Be Alive in 3.10 Doncaster at 25/1 (bet365)
No matter how you approach betting at this time of year, Unibet Lincoln day at Doncaster does offer punters the chance of a fresh start and plenty will be willing to load up on Haqeeqy at 4/1 for the new John and Thady Gosden training partnership in Saturday’s feature.
There are very few negatives with him, in truth, given he’s already got winning form at the track, likes a quick surface and looks potentially well drawn down the middle next to Johan and Grove Ferry, who are both likely to help tow the favourite along.
The potential issues I have, on top of the skinny price in what is essentially a really competitive mile handicap, are two-fold. Firstly, he was dead last on his only previous run over a mile. Granted, he was drawn widest of all and probably not on the ideal part of the track when completely failing to fire at Newmarket’s July Festival, but the eventual winner did come from a similar position as the race unfolded so I’m not entirely convinced that’s a watertight excuse. Having said that, he is bred to stay the trip well.
The other slight snag is potentially a bit more divisive as jockey Benoit De La Sayette is clearly held in very high regard, has been making great waves on the all-weather throughout the winter and, in the right circumstances, looks superb value for his 7lb claim.
However, I don’t think it would be wise to underestimate just how difficult it is to master these big-field, mile events on straight tracks, and there aren’t too many inexperienced winning riders on the recent Lincoln roll of honour – think James Doyle (x2), Danny Tudhope, William Buick, Tony Hamilton (x2), Adam Kirby, Johnny Murtagh (x2) and Jimmy Fortune (x3) for a snapshot of winners.
Darren Egan was still claiming 3lb when winning aboard Levitate in 2013, but he’s the one exception in the last 20 years or so, and I can’t help but think De La Sayette’s complete lack of turf racing experience in Britain is being overlooked when it comes to the market.
Trust Atzeni to time it right
One man with absolutely no questions over him when it comes to the nuances of executing a perfect ride on Town Moor is Andrea Atzeni, who can boast a really impressive 20% strike-rate having had 393 rides at the track before this weekend.
That has to count for something and when you factor in Roger Varian’s superb record at this meeting over the years (6-13), then lightly-raced four-year-old ASCENSION has to be top of the shortlist given he’s available at double-figure prices and sneaks in near the foot of the weights.
ASCENSION (13/8F) grabs the rail and powers to victory at @salisburyraces on just his second career start for @varianstable, with @Mitchelljack77 in the saddle!🏇
— Timeform Live (@TimeformLive) August 14, 2019
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I'd normally be inclined to look for a guaranteed stayer in the Lincoln – something that has already shown the ability to get further and could end up being an out-and-out 10-furlong performer as the year goes on – but a turn of foot is going to a real weapon on the prevailing ground this year and I like the look of Ascension, a son of Dark Angel who looks more of a converted sprinter.
He improved a considerable chunk for the move up to seven furlongs after being gelded in the latter part of last season, winning at Newmarket and Ayr before a good third at Leicester behind Tomfre, who went on to win his next two and now has an official rating of 105.
Ascension signed off with a first try over the mile back at Leicester and again performed well, bumping into a thriving Dashing Roger who re-opposes this weekend. Varian’s horse is 8lb better off at the revised weights and, given Dark Angel’s progeny go on just about any ground, he looks a decent bet to give his trainer what might be classed an overdue first success in the traditional Flat season curtain-raiser.
Add solid Burke hope to staking plan
The big, southern yards are extremely well represented elsewhere, Charlie Appleby’s Eastern World and the Owen Burrows-trained Danyah both looking dangerously well-handicapped if progressing as expected, but the locals have held their own in this race over the years, too, and I’m also drawn to BORN TO BE ALIVE at a big price.
Karl Burke's horse arrives hard-fit following four all-weather runs since returning from a mammoth (896 days) layoff with an encouraging, close second on Boxing Day. He's always had a hint of class and the time away has done no harm at all by the looks of things, and he really does appear to have filled his considerable frame as a seven-year-old.
Roll the clock back to his four-year-old days and he found only subsequent Group One winner Zabeel Prince too good in the Doncaster Mile on this very card, when overhauled in the final furlong after being prominent throughout.
That excellent run came after four spins during the winter months – including a relatively unsuccessful trip to Dubai – so it’s no great surprise Burke has seemingly tried to replicate that kind of preparation this year, only this time staying at home.
Born To Be Alive wins the Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Lincoln Trial Handicap at @WolvesRaces!
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 13, 2021
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He only raced a couple more times in 2018 and was clearly suffering from the ligament troubles that kept him off the track until last December, so he's far from exposed despite his advancing years. And the engine remains well and truly intact on recent evidence, building on placed efforts at Wolverhampton and Newcastle to win at Kempton and back at Wolves in the Lincoln Trial in the middle of this month.
He carries a 5lb penalty at Doncaster for the Kempton win, but has effectively already defied the same mark when following up last time and, as long as there’s no 'firm' in the going description which would probably see him withdrawn in any case, there's every reason to believe he’ll mount a bold bid despite possibly being drawn a shade higher than ideal in 20.
Go Global in consolation race
Ascension’s rider Atzeni has even more obvious claims of landing the Unibet Spring Mile Handicap earlier on the card courtesy of Artistic Rifles.
He won second time out in 2019 and looked in good heart on returning to these shores (had a spell out in Italy) when beating Dawaaleeb at Redcar in September. Last month’s Newcastle third was his first run since and, given he’s likely to come on for it, there’s a lot to recommend him off the same mark back on turf here.
However, at a bigger price a chance is taken on GLOBAL ESTEEM, who also caught the eye in a little all-weather prep run over six furlongs recently.
Sent off favourite on his first run for Chris Dwyer (having joined from Gay Kelleway), the son of Kodiac was really keen and didn’t get much cover before having to come much wider than ideal into the straight.
He boxed on well, given the energy he must have used up early on, to be beaten just over two lengths in the end and while he’s technically 1lb wrong as that run came after the Doncaster weights had already been published, he still has the potential to be a fair way ahead of his mark.
More rain might have been preferred – the horse’s sole success to date coming in a one-mile Yarmouth handicap on soft last August – but he’s got fair form on good to firm and plenty of the family handled a sound surface perfectly well (8th foal, his full bother having won at Listed level).
Qaysar to relish configuration
Andrew Balding’s filly Bounce The Blues could take a bit of beating getting 5lb from the boys in the Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes, but I’m yet to be fully convinced she’s a cast-iron stayer at the trip.
Last year’s Guineas fifth Juan Elcano is fascinating back at a mile although I much prefer the claims of Montatham at the top of the market.
At much bigger prices, I’ll be hoping the one previous course and distance winner in the field – QAYSAR – is fighting fit for his first run of the campaign as he could catch them cold.
I’d have a lot of respect for Richard Hannon’s other runner, Beat Le Bon, too if able to bring his best form to the table, but most of his better efforts have come on tight, turning tracks whereas Qaysar seems to really enjoy a straight course set-up.
He finished a long way behind Top Rank at Haydock and was also beaten seven and a half lengths by Montatham (trying to give him 8lb) a York last summer, but I like some of his earlier 2020 form which includes a comprehensive defeat of the solid yardstick Alternative Fact at Haydock.
He won a small-field handicap at Doncaster from a mark of 104 in a really productive 2019 and while floundering on heavy ground at Newmarket when last seen at the end of October, I can see him massively outperforming his odds fresh from a break and back on a sound surface at a venue he likes.
Published at 1600 GMT on 26/03/21
ITV Racing Schedule
Doncaster: 2.00, 2.35, 3.10, 3.45
Kempton: 1.45, 2.15
Newbury: 2.50, 3.25
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