Matt Brocklebank fancies an upset in the Coral-Eclipse - don't miss his preview of the quality racing from Sandown and Haydock on Sunday.
Recommended bets, Sunday July 5
1pt win To Nathaniel in 2.05 Haydock at 10/1
1pt win Via Serendipity in 3.00 Sandown at 18/1
1pt win Indianapolis in 3.15 Haydock at 14/1
1pt win Regal Reality in 3.35 Sandown at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sir Michael Stoute remains the king of the Coral-Eclipse and his REGAL REALITY (25/1 General) is worth a dart in Sunday’s Group One feature at Sandown.
No trainer has won the race more times than Stoute – though Alec Taylor Jr can also boast six wins from the early 20th century – and it’s noteworthy four of the sextet were aged five.
Stoute has represented the epitome of patience in the training ranks over several decades and it may well be argued few top-class horses have tested that patience quite like Regal Reality.
He’s been a handful from the outset, despite being one of those rare runners from the yard that was forward enough to win on debut at Yarmouth, and he looked to almost lose his way towards the end of last season.
But a winter gelding operation might have done him the power of good based on last month’s comeback run at Royal Ascot, where he was no problem going down to the start and, refreshingly, seemed to save his energy for when it mattered most.
Given a quiet ride in the Wolferton Stakes from stall 11, Jim Crowley had him settled on the outside of Mountain Angel but came five or six wide on turning in, whereas James Doyle nipped along the inside rail on the eventual winner.
He picked up well when asked in the final furlong and a half and was finishing with purpose alongside Sir Dragonet to take third. The second has let the form down to some extent since, finishing second to Buckhurst at the Curragh, but it was hard not to take real encouragement from the run of now five-year-old Regal Reality, who wouldn’t have enjoyed the soft ground at Ascot.
Last year he improved a bundle from his comeback run to win the Brigadier Gerard by over three lengths before posting a career-best third behind Enable and Magical in the Eclipse, after which he wasn’t quite so hot as already touched upon.
He’ll most likely need Enable to have lost her sparkle a little bit from last year, and Ghaiyyath to revert to type and bounce after his monster performance in the rearranged Coronation Cup. But neither scenario would come as a great shock and at the prices I’m happy enough taking them on to small stakes.
Crowley was on board Stoute’s last Eclipse winner, Ulysses, who was similarly overlooked after finishing third at Royal Ascot, while following the jockey blind at Sandown over the past five years would have produced a healthy profit (+49.12).
Crowley’s mount in the Coral Challenge, namely Montatham, unfortunately won’t offer a great deal in terms of value after his second in the Royal Hunt Cup.
He’s gone up another 3lb in light of that defeat, with the reopposing winner Dark Vision raised 6lb, and they’re worth opposing with VIA SERENDIPITY (18/1 Ladbrokes) for Stuart Williams and Hollie Doyle, who can seemingly do little wrong right now.
It’s hoped a change in the saddle sweetens up the quirky six-year-old and it certainly has in the past, with five of his seven career wins coming after a change of pilot.
Hayley Turner was on board for the horse’s most recent win when beating Fox Power (99) and a bunch of horses rated 100-plus in a conditions race at Wolverhampton in February and now in-form Doyle replaces Adam Kirby.
It’s pretty clear he’s developed into a significantly better horse on the all-weather than he is on grass and it’s impossible to overlook the fact but, after another 2lb ease in his turf mark following last month’s Newmarket effort when effectively looked after having received a bump on leaving the stalls, he should be very dangerous.
It’s not like he can’t put one leg in front of the other on the green stuff – he’s won four times on turf and is in fact the only course and distance winner in this field, which is unusual for a big Sandown handicap as they usually attract all the specialists.
He's also won twice at Newmarket and once at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting, the latter being his most recent turf success in August 2018 from a mark of 95.
On the back of a really good autumn/winter campaign at Kempton, Newcastle and Wolverhampton, he’s too well treated here to be missed competing from off his lowest mark (88) since the end of 2017.
The biggest betting heat on Sunday comes in the form of Haydock’s bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap.
Andrew Balding’s Ranch Hand has been one of the main positives in the market since betting opened on the race after his sixth in the mile and three-quarter Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot, form which has already received a little kicker with seventh home Collide running such a bold race in the Northumberland Plate last weekend.
We also have the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes extremely well represented, with Scarlet Dragon, Deja, Le Don De Vie and Indianapolis all taking each other on again.
They’ve all obviously been reassessed and perhaps INDIANAPOLIS (14/1 General), who ended up being the shortest of the lot in the Ascot market after late support, could be the one to upgrade with the visor replacing cheekpieces.
He and Le Don De Vie have been left on the same marks, with the first two raised 7lb and 5lb respectively, but the selection looks the more guaranteed stayer of the pair over this far.
The son of Galileo – formerly with Aidan O’Brien and now trained by James Given - was fourth in last year’s edition of the Old Newton Cup where he was held onto from stall two and ended up having to make up a lot of ground when the leaders kicked on.
A middle draw this weekend should allow Luke Morris to position him where he wants and a strong pace courtesy of Mark Johnston duo Hochfeld and The Trader, as well as former Johnston runner Frankuus who also loves to get on with it, will help those expected to be ridden a touch more patiently.
Patient tactics clearly weren’t part of the plan for Indianapolis at Ascot as he was bustled up by Ben Curtis to track the pace having been drawn out wide in 19, but after using up plenty of energy to get a slot he ran really well in the circumstances.
He won at Ascot in first-time cheekpieces last season so there’s a chance the switch to a visor could help eke out that bit more improvement and he’s still seemingly got a lot more to offer in these major, middle-distance handicaps.
Another one I’m keen on at a double-figure price at Haydock is TO NATHANIEL (10/1 General) in the bet365 Handicap.
He looked a progressive colt when grinding out victory from Damage Control – a wide-margin Chepstow maiden winner since – over a mile and three furlongs at Kempton, after which he went for the King George V Stakes where he finished 13th and a fair way behind the reopposing Subjectivist.
But it’s far too soon to be writing him off as he just didn’t look quite cut out for the mad scramble around Ascot and not a lot went right for him, getting bumped about after being too keen and wider than ideal when the pace-setters slowed it up mid-race.
Haydock is admittedly a sharper track still but the long straight is key here and should really allow him to stretch out and use his impressive stride. He was still entered in the Derby at the turn of the year and it wouldn’t take the wildest imagination to see him gradually developing into a St Leger contender for John Gosden.
For now, though, he’s in a handicap and looks capable of progressing past a mark of 88 with the Ascot experience entitled to have toughened him up a little.
Posted at 1200BST on 04/07/20
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