Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet including Breeders' Cup, November Handicap & Badger Ales Trophy

Recommended bets, Saturday November 6

1pt win Aasheq in 3.15 Doncaster at 25/1

1pt win Champagne Court in 3.35 Wincanton at 17/2

1pt win Terebellum in 6.57 Keeneland at 9/1

1pt win Raging Bull in 8.15 Keeneland at 10/1

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A hearty platter of betting opportunities with quality Flat and jumps action on home soil followed by the main Saturday card at the Breeders’ Cup.

I’ll start off in Keeneland where the prices about TEREBELLUM (9/1 General) are too good to miss in the Makers Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland.

The race provided the travelling European contingent with its only winner at Santa Anita last year as Iridessa struck for Joseph O’Brien and John Gosden’s filly brings even stronger form to the table having bolted up in the Dahlia Stakes (1m2f) at Newmarket earlier in the season before a head second to Circus Maximus in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.

Expectations were clearly high going into the Falmouth on the back of that but she was beaten half a length into third by stablemate Nazeef and didn’t quite back up the huge Ascot effort on ground seemingly softer than ideal.

She also spent the next 12 weeks on the sidelines which gives the impression she might not have been quite at her best and, following that break, there was a fair bit to like about her reappearance run last month when keeping on for fifth in the Sun Chariot.

The ground was pretty desperate on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket and James Doyle wasn’t too hard on her late on, suggesting there was a future target in mind, and getting back on a quicker surface up a furlong and a half in trip out in America is going to prove absolutely ideal.

She’s got just about an ideal position in stall seven with Frankie Dettori back in the saddle and - getting first-time Lasix - there's a fair case for her being right near the head of the betting.

At 9/1 she’s a cracking bet and a strong fancy for the raiders but, generally speaking, the US turf scene is miles stronger than it used to be a decade or so ago and while the Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile features 2000 Guineas winners from England and Ireland respectively in Kameko and Siskin, plus aforementioned Queen Anne winner Circus Maximus, the home team is strong here too.

Ivar is lightly raced and comes into it on the back of a career best in the Shadwell Turf Mile over this course and distance, while last year’s winner Uni is evidently circling back to peak form and she’s also joined by Chad Brown stablemate RAGING BULL (10/1 Hills, BetVictor).

The latter is the most tempting option at the prices despite having to break from the widest draw in stall 14. He should at least get a relatively clear run from the gate with nothing on his outside and, for a horse with such a powerful late kick on drying ground, I don’t mind the idea of him having to come three or four wide into the straight with the likes of Kameko and Siskin potentially finding trouble down on the inside.

Raging Bull looks an improved animal as a five-year-old this time around and has added consistency to his arsenal with three of his four starts this term really good efforts in top-class company.

He runs this track especially well and comes into the race following an eyecaching display with the blinkers off (left off again) when flying home late from well off the pace behind Ivar in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

Joel Rosario jumps ship to stay loyal to last year’s heroine Uni, but Jose Ortiz steps in on the selection having partnered the horse when second to Got Stormy (Uni back in third when again better-fancied) in last year’s Fourstardave at Saratoga.

Raging Bull has plenty of big-race experience under his belt now and appears to be heading towards a peak performance. He can put his track knowledge to good use in this company as the two-turn configuration will clearly be completely alien to a horse like Kameko, who really makes the market.

In terms of the Euros, perhaps Safe Voyage will be the one to outrun his odds and the case was made for him at 16/1 in the antepost column first live on October 21. He's 12s generally now and the sunshine may just have come out a day or two early for John Quinn's horse.

Rosario gets an interesting chance ride on Terebellum’s stable companion Mehdaayih in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, with Dettori opting for Lord North, and it wouldn’t be a massive shock were she to run well at a huge price.

Getting the better of Magical, Mogul and rising star Tarnawa over a mile and a half is another thing, though, so it’s a race I’m happy to sit back and savour.

Much closer to home, the Betfair November Handicap is the big betting heat on the level at Doncaster and the one who looks most over-priced is AASHEQ (25/1 bet365, Hills).

Tim Easterby’s charge thrives on his racing but was a bit out of sorts when finishing midfield in this event two years ago. This time around he’s still seeking his first win of the year but does look to be arriving pretty close to peak form having pushed the well-handicapped three-year-old Ilaraab really close at York three starts ago.

He was bumped back up from 85 to a mark of 90 as a consequence but has since put in two more really creditable placed efforts behind the same rival (Lunar Jet), and was arguably a shade unfortunate not to win when second to that one at Redcar on Tuesday, having been short of room on the inside rail with a couple of furlongs to travel.

He came home with real purpose to fill the runner-up spot there and looks ready for a step back up to this mile and a half trip on that evidence. I also like the quick reappearance as Easterby has done well with that kind of prep in these big Yorkshire handicaps, Dark Jedi another example earlier this summer when fourth in the John Smith’s Cup after a 10-day turnaround.

Still rated 4lb lower than when last successful off 94 at Pontefract last April, Aasheq’s clearly not handicapped out of it and Paul Hanagan coming in for the ride – fresh from celebrating his 2000th career winner at Newcastle – obviously isn’t a bad move either.

It’s a brute of a race with potential improvers Surrey Pride, Kingbrook and Sam Cooke all afforded respect, but Aasheq looks to be slipping under the radar.

On the jumping front, Paul Nicholls runs three as he looks to continue his complete stranglehold on Wincanton’s Badger Beers Silver Trophy.

He’s won the big handicap chase 10 times in total including the past three editions and dual winner Present Man – who was pulled-up 12 months ago on account of the rain-softened ground – looks to have conditions to suit again following a comeback victory at Chepstow which showed the fires still burnt bright.

The 10-year-old will surely give Bryony Frost another great spin around a course the pair know so well, but in terms of real potential it could pay to overlook the Ditcheat team entirely and focus on Jeremy Scott’s CHAMPAGNE COURT (17/2 Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor).

A perfectly accomplished hurdler two seasons back, the tall point-to-point recruit was always going to be seen to best effect over fences and so it proved with back-to-back novice wins at Sandown and Plumpton last November, following a pleasing comeback second to Flash The Steel in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow.

He went on to run really creditable races in the big novice handicap chases at Cheltenham on Trials Day and the Festival itself, and both races are already proving to be a fruitful source of future winners.

The Festival race looks particularly hot, even at this early stage of the new winter campaign, with Imperial Aura winning the Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle and Galvin hacking up back at Prestbury Park. The fourth home, Whatmore, has also re-emerged with a fine second to established older chaser Regal Encore in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot, so it’s red-hot form by the looks of it.

Champagne Court, who ran eighth to Imperial Aura in March, has been dropped 3lb for his troubles and has a lovely prep run under his belt this term when finishing ninth in the Pertemps Qualifier over the smaller obstacles at the Showcase Meeting last month.

Given the improvement he made from his hurdles outing this time last year, coupled with his clear potential to progress as a second-season chaser, there’s a lot to like about the bold jumper here and that includes his price, which has contracted a bit on Friday afternoon but still looks at least a couple of points too big.

Posted at 1500 GMT on 05/11/20

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