Free Cheltenham tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview ahead of Friday's Showcase meeting

Recommended bets, Friday October 23

1pt e.w. Debestyman in 3.00 Cheltenham at 25/1

1pt win Katpoli in 3.35 Cheltenham at 14/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Cheltenham kicks off a new campaign with the opening afternoon of their Showcase meeting on Friday.

There are some high-profile names in town, predictably, and with one or two of the bigger trainers already stating publicly they have their sizeable winter strings more forward than usual, autumn rustiness might not be quite as legitimate an excuse should things not go swimmingly.

Paul Nicholls has been on fire, frankly, and his Ask For Glory will draw considerable attention following another wind op ahead of the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, while Nigel Twiston-Davies' well-regarded and made-for-fences Mossy Fen takes on two wily Irish characters – namely Galvin and Doctor Duffy - in the three-mile Matchbook Better Way To Bet Novices’ Chase.

They are intriguing events but for better value look no further than Suzy Smith’s DEBESTYMAN who appears underestimated at 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) for the squareintheair.com Handicap Hurdle over two miles, five furlongs.

Smith is not going to generate too many pre-race headlines given her relatively small yard and meagre strike-rate, but this horse does look her ace in the pack and came so close to landing a major prize in last season’s Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton.

With the race at his mercy at the final flight, Debestyman had a look around, stepped at it, got it wrong and unshipped Michael Nolan, allowing Burrows Edge and Nico de Boinville to pick up the pieces.

That was really unfortunate and – coupled with the subsequent 6lb rise in the weights having effectively shown his hand – must have been a hard pill to swallow for connections.

But it wasn’t just a flash in the pan.

Prior to Kempton the now seven-year-old had run a very decent sixth behind Champers On Ice at Newbury – a race that produced five subsequent winners, including One For The Team – before another eyecatching effort here at Cheltenham.

Those two runs came at three miles and on the latter occasion he was travelling away sweetly at the head of affairs two out, jumped the last in second, before weakening up the hill to finish fifth.

So the Lanzarote improvement back at this slightly shorter distance wasn’t a huge shock in hindsight and he returns to Prestbury Park following a pipe-opening run at Uttoxeter when dropping right out of things.

I’d expect him to be much sharper for it, while the assessor has handed 2lb back which leaves him just 4lb higher than Kempton. There is unfinished business, one suspects, for Nolan and this horse and there’s no reason why he can’t get back on the upward curve this season.

At the prices he’s well worth an each-way dart in an open affair with Smith having struck at Cheltenham's November and December meetings before, most recently with Clondaw Cian a few years ago.

Dolos keeps a couple of good, old warriors out of the weights in the Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase, but KATPOLI can run off his correct mark and looks a danger to all under 3lb claimer Charlie Hammond, who operates at a tidy 19% hit-rate (42-226) for trainer Dr Richard Newland and has been having a good time of things after three recent winners.

Katpoli was progressing nicely during quite a busy period around the turn of the year and the fact he resumes at this kind of level shows there must be a degree of ambition in the camp.

Still only five, there is a good chance we’ve not yet seen the best of him and he definitely bumped into a bit of a plot horse when second to the well-treated veteran Gino Trail when last seen at Doncaster at the end of February.

He lacks a recent run but won first time out as a juvenile, a campaign that also included two really creditable performances at this course, while good ground seems to hold no fears despite also winning twice on soft.

Anything at 12/1 or bigger looks a decent bet against a horse like On The Slopes who also returns from a long break having gone up 7lb for winning at Kempton in March.

Posted at 1700 BST on 22/10/20

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