Racing betting tips: Thursday May 13
1pt win Muscika in 1.40 York at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)
1pt e.w. La Trinidad in 2.40 York at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
So Aidan O’Brien is finally ‘HD ready’, but the question remains – are you a subscriber?
The Ballydoyle trainer has been forced to wait until Thursday’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York to take the wraps off the much-talked-about High Definition and there’s no doubt this Group Two feature is far better for his inclusion.
It wouldn’t have been a bad Derby trial without him - far from it - but an unbeaten Galileo colt who went into winter quarters as market leader for Epsom was always going to spice things up on the Knavesmire and it’s hard to believe he won’t go off a warm favourite on his belated comeback.
Stall 10 is probably a fraction wider than connections might have wished for in an ideal world, but there’s more than enough quality gallopers in here to make it a true test at the trip and if he’s good enough, High Definition will probably win having stormed home to take the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh when last seen in September.
Mark Johnston’s Gear Up is likely to be among the early forcers from an inside position (stall two) and his Group One win in France at the back-end of last season came on heavy going, so further rain won’t hurt his claims.
Flying Visit is another horse who will handle the going and has to be respected on the best of his form, including a solid second to subsequent wide-margin Derrinstown winner Bolshoi Ballet on his three-year-old debut in the Ballysax Stakes.
Uncle Bryn and Royal Champion have shown sufficient promise on their respective first starts of the year at Epsom and Newmarket to suggest they could yet take high rank among this Classic crop if improving again, while Hurricane Lane evidently has an innate toughness about him that’ll no doubt carry him a long way, even if he ultimately comes up just shy in terms of requisite class on this occasion.
In short, whether you truly buy into the High Definition hype or not, it’s really hard to take a strong view against him and it’s not like any of the complete outsiders make a huge amount of each-way appeal either.
A no-bet race for me, then, but the Matchbook Betting Podcast Hambleton Handicap is difficult to resist with the layers dangling 5/1 the field.
Those towards the top of the market still have to prove they can cut it off their current marks so it could pay to look elsewhere and it’s no surprise to see Richard Fahey’s course winner Hartswood attracting support.
He ran better than the bare result on his seasonal return in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last month and has been eased 1lb in the ratings so is consequently fully 8lb better off with Lincoln runner-up Brunch having got within half a length of Michael Dods’ horse in the often-informative Sky Bet Mile Stakes over course and distance at the Ebor meeting last August.
However, back in third that day was relatively unconsidered 50/1 shot LA TRINIDAD, who was running from 1lb out of the handicap and gets a favourable weight swing with the front two – in Brunch's case he was getting 7lb then and now receives 15lb, having gone down just a length in a good finish.
The Roger Fell-trained four-year-old looks to have been underestimated again here following a very low-key 2021 pipe-opener, when racing too freely before getting blocked on the inside rail and ultimately being brought home in his own time by Ben Curtis at Ripon last month.
That run should have brought him on sufficiently and I’ve no doubt he's got the raw ability to be competitive in races of this nature from a mark of 85, despite still being a stone higher than for his most recent success – a very commanding one at Doncaster last June.
The one major question mark for the son of Bated Breath would be the ground and if it turns genuinely soft or worse then perhaps connections will opt to wait for another day, but he’s shown he can handle a bit of good to soft underfoot, and I don’t mind the wide draw too much either given he’ll hopefully be dropped in this time and played as late as possible by David Egan, who is a bit of an eyecatching booking in itself.
There’s plenty of early pace down on the inside through Mostawaa, Johan, Artistic Rifles and maybe Gloves Lynch too, so the prospect of a dawdling gallop that would realistically all-but end La Trinidad’s chances looks distant.
If they go really hard, the bottom-weight should be finishing as well as anything providing he's back to peak form and might finally be able to deliver a first York success, having run well in defeat here on no fewer than four occasions in total throughout last season.
Tim Easterby runs last week’s Chester second and third, Count D’Orsay and Copper Knight, again quickly in the opening Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap, though the former is still 8lb higher than when last successful and it’s probably fair to argue Copper Knight isn’t quite the horse he once was - though admittedly his course record is superb.
The bet is David O’Meara’s MUSCIKA, who along with Copper Knight is the only other course and distance winner in the field having scored here in October from a 2lb lower mark.
Unlike a few of these – namely Mondammej and Glory Fighter, who have struggled with slow starts in the past – Muscika can usually be relied upon to break smartly out of the gates, while he’ll handle anything the weather throws at the track before the day-two opener.
He’s often taken two of three runs to reach top form in the spring and early-summer and he actually looked on great terms with himself when a close fourth at Beverley last month. He’s since been to Ripon, a course at which he’s struggled before, and finished last of six but I’m not holding that against him too harshly as he was drawn deepest on the track and used up too much petrol to get out, right across and bag the front-running position on the rail.
In fact, his two wins at York last year came after finishing fifth at Ripon and 18th at Ayr on his previous starts, so an immediate return to prominence looks quite likely on that basis and double-figure prices underestimate his chance in this field.
Published at 1500 BST on 12/05/21
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