Our racing expert Ben Linfoot has three Value Bet selections for Saturday's live ITV action at Ayr and Wolverhampton.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, March 7
1pt win Nonios in 1.35 Wolverhampton at 16/1
1pt win Vengeur De Guye in 1.55 Ayr at 14/1
1pt win Cardsharp in 2.45 Wolverhampton at 15/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s a real shame we've lost the Imperial Cup card at Sandown on Saturday due to the weather but the show goes on at Ayr and Wolverhampton in a final bid to boost the bank ahead of Cheltenham.
The best racing is on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and the best horses on show are in the Listed Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Lady Wulfruna Stakes over seven furlongs at 2.45.
Urban Icon is favourite here but he’s worth taking on with this being his first go on the all-weather. His sire, Cityscape, has only had four winners at a 9.52 per cent strike-rate at Wolverhampton since the Tapeta surface was introduced and Urban Icon may well need this run ahead of a turf campaign.
In contrast CARDSHARP (15/2 bet365, Hills) should be fit and firing for this contest. He certainly was last year when he was third in the race from a wide draw, with only Above The Rest and Island Of Life wearing him down late on.
That was his only previous go at Wolverhampton and he took to the surface well, as you would expect from a son of Lonhro – a sire whose progeny have excelled on the track since the Tapeta switch (10 from 46 at 21.74 per cent).
He's drawn better this time around in stall five and there doesn’t look to be too much competition for the early lead, so Adam Kirby could end up in a position where he can control the tempo of the race.
That’s a dangerous situation for the opposition as Cardsharp is the best horse in the contest according to a few bits of form, including his wins at Lingfield last March and at York last May.
If he's in that sort of nick after his absence he’s the one they all have to beat and with that in mind the general 7/1 is fair.
Earlier on it’s the Bombardier Golden Beer Lincoln Trial Handicap (1.35) and there looks to be plenty of pace on here with Red Bond, Arcanada, Kasbaan, Fox Power, Pinnata and Smile A Mile all prominent racers.
There's the possibility they will set things up for a closer and I like the look of the 16/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power) about David Simcock’s NONIOS considering the increased chance of this scenario developing.
The eight-year-old has done most of his racing over 10 furlongs but I was impressed with how he coped with the drop back to a mile at Lingfield last time as he travelled really well and showed a smart turn of foot to get the better of Smile A Mile.
That was only a five-runner race and you can reasonably question the worth of the form in the context of this race, but I thought he did it very easily indeed and he only went up 2lb for the win.
He’s so unexposed over a mile and that was one of the best performances of his career, so he might well have needed dropping to this trip all along and the fact he stays further could help him wear his rivals down in the straight.
His style of racing negates the disadvantage of the wide draw for my money and with the Simcock all-weather team going really well he’s taken to land the card’s opener.
Finally, the ITV cameras head up to Ayr in the absence of racing from Sandown with three races set to be shown live from the Scottish track.
There is one bet that appeals as I feel Lucinda Russell’s veteran VENGEUR DE GUYE is overpriced at 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power) in the opening Tennent’s Light Handicap Chase (1.55).
He’s a risky one given he’s not shown an awful lot on his last four starts, but the last two of those were over hurdles and before that he was running off higher marks over fences following an easy 14-length win at Kelso on his seasonal reappearance.
That victory came off a mark of 122 and he’s quickly fallen back to 124, so he’s handicapped to win on his best form. The last time he ran at Ayr he won a handicap chase off 120 and there’s reason to believe this race will be run to suit.
He needs a strong gallop to aim at and Tonto’s Spirit and Ardera Cross probably won’t be hanging around, so if he cuts out the mistakes on his return to fences he could ease into this nicely.
Russell has a good record in Scottish handicap chases at this time of year and she has won this very race a couple of times recently with Imjoeking.
I wouldn’t describe Vengeur De Guye as a solid bet by any means, but things could pan out in his favour here and at 14/1 he’s big enough to roll the dice.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 06/03/20
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +345.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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