Cheltenham betting tips: Tuesday, March 16
1pt e.w. Vintage Clouds in 2.30 Cheltenham at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt win Riviere D'etel in 4.15 Cheltenham at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. The Mighty Don in 4.50 Cheltenham at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Abacadabras could bring the magic
While there’s no shortage of intrigue in the principal races, the best bets on day one of the Cheltenham Festival predictably come in the big-field handicaps.
The unusually small field for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle makes for a fascinating race and Allmankind versus Shishkin in the Sporting Life Arkle does have the potential to be a fun watch, but neither race contains anything that can be classed as wildly overpriced.
Irascible - an impressive maiden winner first time out at Clonmel at the end of October - looked a potential player in the Supreme division when staying on for second behind Appreciate It at Leopardstown over Christmas, but his Dublin Racing Festival run didn’t offer enough hope.
A big-field scenario might have suited him better and he’s expected to be a ridden with a touch more restraint on this occasion, but I’m not convinced he’ll have the gears to cope with Metier, let alone bridge the gap with Blue Lord, Ballyadam and favourite Appreciate It.
Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory is going to be popular if the dead eight stand firm but his winter campaign looked to be geared around Newbury and he’ll need another major leap forward in the first-time headgear in order to be seriously competitive on his first look at a Grade One.
It’s a race I’ll happily sit and watch, likewise the Arkle in which Shishkin is expected to produce the goods now faced with a more competitive field.
The Unibet Champion Hurdle poses a bit of a conundrum as it’s a fairly level playing field ratings-wise, until you factor in the 7lb mares’ allowance, and it could be a bit too much of a stretch to see both Honeysuckle and reigning champ Epatante failing to fire.
Antepost fancy Abacadabras certainly appears to be arcing back to peak condition and could be able to take his form to new levels in what promises to be such a strongly-run affair but, equally, he’s now half the price he was soon after crossing the line 10 lengths adrift of Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
Not a huge amount has happened since then, other than Goshen putting his name firmly back into the hat with a brilliant performance in the Kingwell Hurdle, so I can just about let Abacadabras go at current odds, especially as Aspire Tower has twice finished in front of him this season and is more than double the price.
Vintage performance from old stager?
Novices have won seven of the last 17 editions of the Ultima Handicap Chase and while there are only four who fulfil that criteria this time around, it wouldn’t be a surprise if one came good again as two of them head the betting in Happygolucky and One For The Team.
Impressive Sandown winner Alnadam has to shrug off an 8lb rise in the weights and also has stamina to prove having not tackled three miles since his pointing days (won a weak race at the trip at Dromahane in May 2018), but he’s clearly another open to further improvement for a yard that can do little wrong right now.
The Wolf – who was nibbled at big prices through Monday - completes the novice quartet and he should appreciate a 3lb ease for being readily outclassed by Chantry House at Wetherby. Having run a pretty big race behind a bunch of subsequent Graded winners in last year’s Albert Bartlett, there’s a chance a return to Cheltenham and this searching trip could spark something positive in him too.
But the door does appear ajar for one of the more established performers to be let in if on a going day and Aye Right is the one I’ve been with for a few weeks now. He should probably have won the Sky Bet Chase (jockey dropped whip) and looks guaranteed to get a no-nonsense, prominent ride from Richard Johnson, who won on the horse during his hurdling days for good measure.
However, he’s another who has really shortened up in the betting and with so many ‘repeat offenders’ having starred in this race over the years – in the past decade alone three winners had contested the previous year’s renewal while loads have been placed on more than one occasion – it’s worth giving him a swerve and instead looking to the 2020 Festival for clues.
Milan Native is a big danger off 8lb higher than his Kim Muir win but of more interest are the two who return from last year’s Ultima, namely seventh home Cepage and the eighth VINTAGE CLOUDS, who is 11lb better off with Venetia Williams’ top weight on what will be his fifth attempt at the race in total.
Prior to last year’s relatively disappointing run, Vintage Clouds’ Ultima record was really quite strong. He fell two-out when still in with every chance in 2017, finished third a year later, and then found only Beware The Bear too good in 2019.
So last year was unquestionably his worst performance, but it also coincided with his highest official mark (151), having absolutely bolted up in the Peter Marsh from a mark of 143 before having another hard race on heavy going at Haydock less than a month before the Festival in the Grand National Trial (finished fifth).
He’s been campaigned much lighter this time around and hasn’t shown a huge amount in his three public outings, but he prepped in a small-field race at Kelso on February 19, following another breathing operation (also operated on immediately prior to his peak Ultima effort three years ago), and that might have put him spot-on fitness-wise.
He was dropped another 2lb for the run which means he’s back on 143 – the same mark from which he’s won two major handicap chases during his career including the aforementioned score last season – and looks dangerously well-treated as a result.
Trainer Sue Smith has opted to fit first-time cheekpieces too so there must be some hope of rekindling one more massive effort from one of the veterans of the party, and I’m happy to back him each-way with seven places on offer with Sky Bet (25/1 bet365, four places) given it looks like day one will offer the softest ground of the week.
Keep eye out for Shark in side markets
The decision to run Roksana in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle makes the race stronger on the face of it, but there’s no denying her improvement this season has come at three miles and it’s slightly surprising connections didn’t aim for Thursday’s Stayers’ Hurdle.
Coral Cup winner Dame De Compagnie is at least fancied to keep favourite Concertista honest but Great White Shark was another slightly surprising name in the final declarations and she’s worth a second look in light of Willie Mullins’ propensity to utterly dominate this race.
Perhaps it should be seen as a vote of confidence in Koshari and other stablemates in Wednesday's Coral Cup as Great White Shark was wrongly presumed to be heading in that direction, but she’s not miles off the pick of these on ratings and did look better than ever on the Flat when winning the Cesarewitch by three lengths in October.
Her only appearance since was a complete no-show (2/1 favourite) on bottomless ground over three miles in Gowran’s Galmoy Hurdle, but I’d expect to see more from her on a slightly better surface back at this sort of trip. She’s around 8/1 in the market ‘without Concertista’ which could be the way to get her on side.
Willie Mullins Cheltenham Festival Stable Tour: Day One Preview
Sneezy does it in Boodles?
Irish-trained runners have been bossing the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle in recent seasons and it won’t be a surprise to see that trend continue as the biggest yards in Ireland look to have a really strong group of four-year-olds again this year.
Dermot Weld’s Coltor is an eye-catching runner and market confidence behind him is understandable, especially as he improved a considerable amount when first fitted with a visor on the level. The headgear has been held back until now which looks significant and his natural Flat speed could be a real asset around the Old Course here.
Preference at the prices, however, is for Denise 'Sneezy' Foster's RIVIERE D'ETEL, who geared up for this in the same Navan novice hurdle as the Gordon Elliott-trained 2018 Boodles winner Veneer Of Charm en route to Festival success.
Veneer Of Charm was down the field in her prep before springing a 33/1 shock whereas Riviere D'etel wasn’t at all disgraced, beaten three and a half lengths into third behind Thedevilscoachman. He’s gone on to win a Listed race at Punchestown in really good style and looks bound for Grade One company before long so the lightly-raced Riviere D'etel could do some damage sent handicapping from a mark of 134.
Fillies have performed really well from a limited representation in this race down the years, winning four times from the 16 previous editions, and the selection is just one of two in the race this season along with Alan King’s Doncaster winner Her Indoors.
The hooded Riviere D'etel has looked pretty headstrong and really bounded clear when making all in her maiden in the Punchestown snow on New Year’s Eve, but being buried away in a bigger field at Cheltenham should help her settle better and could bring out a fair amount of improvement.
Paul Nicholls: Cheltenham Festival Memories
Don't miss Gifford stayer at 33/1 in finale
THE MIGHTY DON can outrun his odds in the Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase.
This race is often won by horses with loads of experience – only one winner in the past 10 years has had fewer than four chase starts under their belt and that was Back In Focus in 2013. He had only run three times in novice chases but had won a Grade One on his previous start, so his class clearly more than made up for a relative lack of chasing nous.
In the same period, there have been three winners with 10 chase starts to their name and another with nine, and while Ravenhill took top spot last year after 'just' six previous runs over fences, he did have a bunch of point-to-point outings under the belt too.
Galvin is a short-priced favourite and you can’t knock him on the experience front as he’s already had eight chase starts (winning four), while I don’t see Sunday’s rain being a massive hindrance either with a relatively dry forecast from this point.
The next four in the betting are all really lightly raced, though, so it’s worth casting the net wider for an each-way bet and Nick Gifford’s horse stands out having had 10 previous runs over fences. He’s only won one of those but I’ve had him in mind for this since his staying-on second to Ultima favourite Happygolucky over the extended three miles, one furlong in December, and I can excuse him the two runs since then.
He was a bit out of his depth against the 161-rated Yala Enki and co and would have hated the seriously testing going at Taunton on January 23, while the jumpers’ bumper outing last month was clearly just to help him tick over ahead of the Festival.
He comes into this rated 140 and seemingly has plenty to find but he was a worthy 150 over hurdles a couple of years ago when eighth to Paisley Park in the Stayers’. He had a few jumping issues last season but has come good now, like a lot of the Gifford horses, and makes quite a bit of appeal in this company.
Published at 1430 GMT on 15/03/21
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