Royal Ascot tips: Thursday June 17
1pt win Ataser in 5.00 Ascot at 40/1 (General)
1pt win Gioia Cieca in 5.00 Ascot at 66/1 (General)
1pt win Marshall Plan in 5.35 Ascot at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Whatharm in 6.10 Ascot at 33/1 (BoyleSports)
Where can the value be found on day three?
The final three races at Royal Ascot on Thursday are manna from heaven for anyone on the hunt for value as, in short, there are a load of very good horses available at big prices across some of the most competitive handicaps of the entire season.
There's a fair chance of rain for most of the day and the sting will definitely have been taken out of the ground come race time so let’s tackle the good stuff head-on, starting with the Britannia Stakes over the straight mile for three-year-olds only.
Two stand out at current odds and they’re drawn on either side of the track so at least a potentially advantageous split on account of a possible going change won’t leave us without a shot and I really like the look of ATASER in stall 11.
✅ 33/1 winner on Tuesday
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) June 16, 2021
✅ 15/2 winner on Wednesday
👏 A second successive winning Nap this week courtesy of @MattBrocklebank and @BenLinfoot as Kemari lands the Queen’s Vase at #RoyalAscot pic.twitter.com/LBE9qXpZBp
He’s attempting to achieve the difficult feat of winning this monster prize on his first start of the season but the obvious element to that is that Roger Varian pulled it off 12 months ago with Khaloosy.
Ataser’s trainer is Newmarket-based TJ Kent, none other than Varian’s ex-assistant (was Michael Jarvis’s right-hand man for many years there too) and I don’t see the layoff as such a negative given everything else looks in place for a massive run.
Kent doesn’t have a huge string by any means but he chipped away very nicely last summer and Diffident Spirit scoring at Chepstow earlier this month was his first winner since October, suggesting they’re just beginning to come back to top form.
Ataser had a really promising two-year-old campaign and, after a decent debut run behind reopposing Star Of Orion at Newmarket, won three of his next four starts.
The other defeat was a nursery second over six furlongs here at Ascot (his trainer’s only ever previous runner at the track), form which was given a timely boost by the winner Line Of Departure easily landing a Listed race against older horses at Salisbury on Sunday.
He’ll be on for a mark well into triple figures after that and Ataser gave him a race last year, over a trip which ultimately proved to be too short given his subsequent exploits over seven furlongs at York and Doncaster (click to watch free video replays).
Raised another 4lb in light of the narrow Town Moor triumph, he’s still only rated 90 and I’m not surprised he’s been put away with something decent in mind as he looks ahead of the assessor all being well.
The big question mark is his suitability to a mile as there’s lots of speed on the dam’s side of his pedigree and his sire Sayif’s best-known son, Gulliver, was a close fourth in the Wokingham last summer, but Sayif has had enough milers too and the way this horse was shaping as a juvenile gives me enough confidence he’ll get the trip.
As for his jockey, Ray Dawson took December, January and most of February off in a bid to protect his 3lb claim for races exactly like this and he looks to be getting into top gear again having unfortunately suffered a broken collarbone soon after his return from the self-imposed break in early-March.
His record for Kent (4-23) is perfectly solid but I love his Ascot strike-rate (4-14) even more, featuring straight course wins on Blue De Vega, Documenting and Stone Circle, and there’s little doubt he’s still a rising star of the weighing room.
Who else appeals in the Britannia?
The other angle into the race is that Britannia winners have often been very lightly-raced as two-year-olds, which makes a lot of sense given they’ve not fully shown their hand to the assessor. In fact, 2019 winner Biometric and 2017 winner Bless Him hadn’t raced at all as juveniles and GIOIA CIECA comes close in that regard as he only made his debut at Newcastle on December 1.
He opened his account in a small novice event at the same venue in early-February but it’s the last run at Lingfield that interests me most with this contest in mind.
Pitched into a hot Listed event over seven furlongs against rivals with plenty more experience, Keith Dalgleish’s horse ran a belter from the front, only giving way two out before boxing on bravely to be fourth.
The front three are all fairly serious horses: winner Apollo One was rated 104 at the time, runner-up Megallan is now up to 110 after his Dante second to Hurricane Lane, while third El Drama is 109 having beaten Maximal and Earlswood in the Dee Stakes at Chester.
Gioia Cieca was competing off level weights, on just the third run of his life, and now goes down the handicap route off a perch of 96, which is far from a gimme but does appear to offer him a chance.
Stepping back up to a mile – having made his debut at this distance – will suit on what we’ve seen of him over the shorter trip since and he might just take to the place too if there’s rain around given his sire Kitten’s Joy has enjoyed high-profile success here through Roaring Lion and Hawkbill scoring in soft conditions.
At a wild price I’m prepared to take a dart at him too for a trainer who always seems to be punching above his weight in the major summer handicaps.
Will the Gosdens be on the scoresheet again?
Aidan O’Brien’s Sir Lamorak is probably going to take some beating off a mark of 100 in the King George V Stakes so I won’t be straying all that far from the top of the market, but I do think John and Thady Gosden’s MARSHALL PLAN is being significantly underestimated.
His position in the betting is primarily down to the fact Frankie Dettori must prefer stablemate First Light but it’s Rab Havlin’s mount – a son of Golden Horn whose progeny are 2-14 at Ascot - who has achieved most on the track to this point.
He wasn’t seen last year but built on a nice debut third to Polling Day at Lingfield to win tidily at Wolverhampton at the end of March, before being turned over as the 4/5 favourite (under Dettori) back at Lingfield a month later.
The initial impression was understandably one of disappointment but it soon became clear what Brian Meehan thinks of the unbeaten winner Mandoob, who is reportedly being put aside for a tilt at the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket's July Festival.
So going down a length and three-quarters to that horse, while trying to concede him a 7lb winner’s penalty, on a track that won’t have played to his strengths, perhaps wasn’t such a bad effort at all from Marshall Plan and he looks potentially thrown in off an initial mark of 90 given his progressive profile.
He’s another horse having his first taste of competitive turf action but he’s entitled to have strengthened up again after another 49 days away, while the Gosden team have added a tongue-tie in a bid to eke out a little more (18.92% strike-rate when applied first time). Incidentally, Wednesday's Queen Vase third Stowell was the first horse John and Thady have added a tongue-tie to for the first time since becoming dual licence-holders.
Marshall Plan's draw in stall eight should allow Havlin to get a good early position and with so many of these rivals tackling the trip for the first time, I really like the fact he’s already proven he stays every yard, especially considering the weather forecast.
Is there an Irish handicapper worthy of interest?
Keeping the all-weather theme rolling, I’m drawn to sole Irish-trained runner WHATHARM in the Buckingham Palace Stakes.
Pat Flynn’s horse has a wonderful strike-rate at Dundalk and has motored through the ranks there this winter, winning handicaps from marks of 75, 83, 85 and 93 before having a short break and returning to turf in April.
He was pitched into Listed company and dropped back in trip at Cork that day and duly failed to make an impression but the return to handicap level saw him immediately back on track with a staying-on fifth at the same venue early last month.
That run came from a perch of 97 and the third home, Jessie Harrington’s Real Appeal, has won a Group Three at Leopardstown since so Whatharm being able to run off 95 in the UK looks quite generous, while the stiffer seven furlongs at Ascot – compared to Cork’s relatively flat configuration – will in all likelihood help him out at the finish.
Flynn has yet to saddle a winner in the UK (he’s 0-13 at Ascot) but certainly knows the time of day when getting his hands on the raw materials and looks to have set the son of Canford Cliffs aside for a pop at one of the big seven-furlong prizes on offer this year (also entered in the Bunbury Cup).
Canford Cliffs won the Coventry Stakes, the St James’s Palace and a Queen Anne on his three visits during an illustrious career so Ascot could suit this gelding and while thunderstorms turning the ground really bad wouldn’t be ideal at all, that doesn’t look all that likely on balance.
Published at 1600 BST on 16/06/21
