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Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free betting tips for Glorious Goodwood day three
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections for day three of Glorious Goodwood with Richard Hannon fancied to have a good day with his team.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Glorious Goodwood, Day Three
1pt win Bathsheba Bay in 1.50 Goodwood at 9/1
1pt win Maverick Officer in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1
1pt win Maid Up in 2.25 Goodwood at 22/1
1pt win Billesdon Brook in 3.35 Goodwood at 9/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Qatar Nassau Stakes takes centre stage on day three of Glorious Goodwood and it’s the QIPCO 1000 Guineas winner BILLESDON BROOK that looks the standout bet in the race at 9/1 (Sky Bet, BetBright, 888Sport).
Veracious has plenty of potential and Urban Fox has a very good recent Group One win over the trip to her name, but I’m not sure they should be more than twice the price of Richard Hannon’s Guineas winner who didn’t shape badly at all in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.
Okay, she was nine lengths behind runaway winner Alpha Centauri in fourth, but Jessica Harrington’s filly is the best three-year-old miler around and she simply had too much speed for the rest of the field in the Coronation.
Billesdon Brook couldn’t quicken like Alpha Centauri did, but she stayed on from the rear to get within two lengths of Veracious who was much better positioned throughout the contest after making the running.
As you would expect there’s nothing wrong with Billesdon Brook’s Guineas form, the subsequent exploits of Laurens and Wild Illusion prove that, and she looks well worth a go over 10 furlongs judging by her pedigree.
By Champs Elysees out of a Manduro mare, she’s a half-sister to Billesdon Bess, a 10-furlong winner at Goodwood, while her dam stayed 10 furlongs and ran as far as 1m5f in her career.
There also looks no better place to try her over 10 furlongs than this track, the scene of two of her victories last season including that remarkable success in the Telegraph Nursery Handicap where she burst through to win from a ridiculous position in the final furlong.
Three-year-olds get 8lb from the older fillies in the Nassau and historically have a really good record, so it could be tough for Rhododendron and Urban Fox to give weight and a beating to a Guineas winner that has the potential to thrive over the distance at this track.
It could be a good day for Hannon as he saddles BATHSHEBA BAY in the opening Matchbook Best Value Exchange Handicap (1.50) and despite being backed from 12/1 on Wednesday he’s still worth backing at 9/1 (General).
This horse was second to Dee Ex Bee in a maiden at last year’s Glorious Goodwood and looks progressive in handicaps over 10 furlongs judging by an excellent recent effort over the distance at Sandown.
That was his first go at a mile-and-a-quarter and he stayed on really well to the line, just being denied a neck and a neck by Melting Dew and Alfarris, the latter a winner on day one at this meeting.
With that form boost in mind he looks to have done quite well only going up 1lb for that performance and his back-form includes a comprehensive defeat of the now 91-rated Breath Caught.
Bits and pieces of form like that suggest he might be well capable of defying a mark of 87 and from stall one and a low-weight of 8st 3lb with David Egan on board, this looks a good opportunity.
I’m taking two horses against the field in this race, though, as I can’t leave MAVERICK OFFICER unbacked at 16/1 (General).
David Simcock’s Exceed And Excel gelding shaped really well at Goodwood earlier in the season, lacking the pace of the front three down the centre of the track but winning ‘his race’ on the far side having dropped to the rear early doors.
That was over seven furlongs and he improved on that form stepped up to a mile after that, winning off a mark of 86 at Haydock from Ulshaw Bridge following a sustained tussle in the final furlong.
The runner-up has franked that form subsequently, winning at Doncaster from Al Jellaby two weeks’ later before finishing second to Crack On Crack On in a good handicap at Ascot on King George day.
On that line of form there’s very little between Al Jellaby and Maverick Officer, but the market has the former priced up at 11/2 and the discrepancy just looks to be too big.
Maverick Officer has finished midfield in the Britannia since then, but he looks a likely improver now he steps up to 10 furlongs as he’s out of a Montjeu mare that won over 1m4f and he’s the half-brother of a couple of 10 furlong winners.
Finally, I think it’s well worth taking a punt on MAID UP at 22/1 (General) in the Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes over 1m6f (2.25).
The Mastercraftsman filly has plenty to find on official ratings but Andrew Balding very rarely blows a good handicap mark without good reason and she looks a highly progressive filly after landing three handicaps on the spin.
There are many instances of Balding horses running well in a conditions race that seemingly look up against it on the figures and I’ve plucked three out as examples.
Blond Me was rated 84 when winning a Sandown Listed race in 2015 from horses rated 97, 99, 100 and 104, Viscount Barfield was rated 94 when winning a Chester Listed race in 2017 from horses rated 105, 112, 112 and 113 and Brorocco, last Saturday, was rated 95 in the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes when finishing ahead of horses rated 110, 113 and 115.
There’s no need to be too concerned about Maid Up having to find over a stone with some of her rivals, then, and even less so when you watch the manner of her recent handicap victories.
Last time, at Ascot, she won cosily despite the winning distance being a neck and she’s a strong traveller who shapes as though she’ll thrive stepping up in trip.
There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and John Gosden’s California won the same Ascot race before landing Lillie Langtry glory a couple of years ago.
With winning experience at Goodwood in her locker as well, there is plenty to like about her chance at the odds available.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +345.34pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 01/08/18.