Our racing expert Ben Linfoot has four Value Bet selections for day three of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival including a Nick Williams-trained horse in the Plate.
Recommended Bets: Cheltenham Festival Day Three
1pt e.w Rapper in 2.10 Cheltenham at 25/1
1pt win Siruh Du Lac in 4.10 Cheltenham at 18/1
1pt win Deyrann de Carjac in 4.10 Cheltenham at 12/1
1pt win Fitzhenry in 5.30 Cheltenham at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
We switch to the New Course for Thursday’s action at the Cheltenham Festival and that means Frodon will likely come alive in the Ryanair Chase (2.50) for Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost.
Five from seven over fences on the track, a return to form at Kempton last time out means he comes here in good nick as he attempts to retain his Ryanair crown.
The problem is this year’s renewal looks hotter, with A Plus Tard and Min forming a strong Irish challenge while Riders On the Storm joins Frodon as the best of the Brits.
I like Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse but he had a very tough race at Ascot last time out and it remains to be seen if that has left a mark on him.
All things considered, it’s a race to leave alone from this column’s point of view and the same can be said of the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle with behemoth of the sphere Paisley Park looming large over the field.
Emma Lavelle’s stayer is pure class and he should have too many guns in this race once again, so we do have a situation where last year’s Golden Hour could be replicated.
Nick Williams would argue it was a Golden Ninety Minutes after Lizzie Kelly won on SIRUH DU LAC in the Brown Advisory Plate afterwards and at 18/1 (Hills, Ladbrokes) he looks a big price to retain his own crown in the big handicap at 4.10.
He is two from two on the New Course after victories in the Trophy handicap on trials day last year before his superb Festival win, where he jumped brilliantly and battled on well to see off a good horse in Janika.
After that it looked like he might develop into a horse better than a handicapper, and at seven-years-old he still might, but he blotted his copybook when he was pulled up off his revised mark of 150 in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Old Course) in November.
He had to work hard to get the lead that day but he didn’t look himself, Kelly going easy on him once his chance had gone before pulling him up before two out.
It turns out he had a small fracture in a small bone and subsequently he had two months rest, so he’s easily forgiven that run and Williams is a dab hand at preparing a horse for a Festival handicap (think this horse, Flying Tiger and Coo Star Sivola) while Siruh Du Lac has proven in the past he goes well fresh.
I like that he’s a prominent racer on this track and even though he’s 9lb higher than last year there’s still no evidence, considering the reason for his BetVictor reverse, that he’s reached the ceiling of his ability.
Sent off at 8s for the BetVictor when running off the same mark, he’s a big price now 10 points bigger with essentially the same task in store.
I want to split stakes on him and DEYRANN DE CARJAC at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook).
Alan King’s horse has run in the same races as RSA Chase winner Champ on a couple of occasions this season and wasn’t beaten far at all at Newbury, while he shaped well with handicaps in mind in the Dipper at Cheltenham when last sighted on New Year’s Day (when Champ fell).
He’s a lightly-raced novice that comes into this contest against plenty of horses that the handicapper knows all about, but he has the scope to be better than a 145-rated horse
It looks a good call from King to take on more exposed handicappers with his star novice rather than taking up the option of the Northern Trust on the opening day and if the ground is slightly better on the New Course, as Simon Claisse suggested it might be, then that’s in his favour, too.
His price has shortened on Wednesday afternoon, but I still want to be with him at 12/1.
Earlier on it’s the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle and RAPPER looks the value in the race at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).
This horse has only had eight starts and he’s seriously unexposed over three miles, winning well over a trip marginally short of that distance at Market Rasen in November before he was second over three miles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
He traded odds-on in-running that day after trying to make all under Richard Patrick, but Skandiburg saved ground on the inside and mugged him up the hill.
With a 3lb pull at the weights, and with Richard Johnson taking over in the saddle, it would be no surprise to see Henry Daly’s horse reverse that form yet he is double the price of Olly Murphy’s horse.
A 2lb rise for that runner-up finish was fair and with conditions ideal he looks a fair each-way bet at 25s in a tough race.
Finally, I want to be on FITZHENRY at 12/1 (General) in the Kim Muir (5.30).
JP McManus and Nicky Henderson have had a fantastic week and their Champagne Platinum, to be ridden by Derek O’Connor, has been backed into favouritism for this race.
He is likely to be primed to the minute off 138 in first-time cheekpieces, but owner-mate Fitzhenry has drifted to 12s on the back of the plunge and I can’t resist those odds.
Second in the Troytown behind Gold Cup contender Chris’s Dream in November, he looked likely to win the Paddy Power Chase (before Roaring Bull’s famous late thrust) at Leopardstown at Christmas and that race has a habit of throwing up Kim Muir winners (Spring Heeled, Cause Of Causes and Any Second Now in the last six years).
Badly hampered at the last when going really well at the Dublin Racing Festival when last seen, he deserves a change of luck and the British handicapper has done all he can by rating him just 1lb higher than his Irish mark.
With plenty in his favour he’s worth a bet in the Thursday finale.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 11/03/20
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +331.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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