Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value at Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday afternoon with Dr Richard Newland's Katpoli fancied on Town Moor.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, February 29
1pt win Strong Pursuit in 2.05 Newbury at 10/1*
1pt win Katpoli in 2.25 Doncaster at 11/1
1pt win Aimee De Sivola in 3.00 Doncaster at 8/1
1pt win Not Another Muddle in 3.15 Newbury at 12/1*
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
*Newbury meeting was abandoned on Saturday morning...
Plenty more rain is forecast around the country ahead of Saturday’s racing and conditions are likely to be really testing at both Doncaster and Newbury, with the ground already soft at both tracks after Friday’s action.
The 888Sport Grimthorpe Handicap Chase is the feature race at Doncaster, but it doesn’t really appeal as a betting proposition the night before as Definitly Red and Saint Xavier are priced up as contenders despite their first preferences being at Kelso.
There are several other races to have a go at in any case, with the 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase over two miles at Doncaster a fascinating heat.
Dolos is the class act in this company but he’ll have to put up a serious performance to win this off 161. With his best form being at Sandown he looks a bit skinny at around 7/2 and the percentage call is to take him on.
While I’m not convinced Doncaster is the perfect track for Dolos, I think it will suit Dr Richard Newland’s KATPOLI well and at 11/1 (General) he’s worth backing now he drops back down in trip.
He’s won two from three over fences when racing over two miles and he shaped like a non-stayer over 2m4f last time at Warwick, where he made good headway to get into contention around the home turn before his effort petered out in the straight.
It was a performance that suggested he’s still in good form and two miles at Doncaster should suit judging by his penultimate performance where he won well at Wetherby, a similar left-handed and galloping track to Town Moor.
He handles soft ground well and he won’t mind a strongly-run gallop if the front-running veteran Gino Trail, now with Fergal O’Brien, ensures it’s a test.
Also at Doncaster I’m happy to take on the odds-on Cill Anna in the appropriately-named 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 3.00.
Paul Nicholls is flying and this mare has plenty in hand on official ratings, but she steps up in trip on Saturday so we are heading into the unknown with her.
The extra distance could well suit Cill Anna, but she’s priced up prohibitively on the back of one good win where the favourite disappointed, so I’m not as convinced as the market is.
With the ground softening I’m more taken by the claims of AIMEE DE SIVOLA at 8/1 (General) as she loves these sort of conditions and looks a likely improver stepping up in trip.
She showed her battling qualities when winning at Warwick on her seasonal reappearance and she’s run well in defeat three times since, all over the intermediate trip of 2m4f.
However, Nick Williams’ mare is from a family of stayers and is related to both Culture De Sivola and the super star Reve De Sivola, who won multiple races over three miles for the same yard.
I’d say improvement is likely now Aimee De Sivola steps up in distance, so much so that she could give the odds-on Nicholls hotpot a real fright.
Over at Newbury it’s the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and Nicholls has a great chance of extending his incredible record in the contest.
He’s got three of the top five in the betting this time around but I’m not sure really testing ground is ideal for any of his trio and it could be worth looking away from the Nicholls challenge on this occasion.
The one I like at the prices is Gary Moore’s NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE at 12/1 (General) as he seems to have slightly inflated odds on the back of being absent for the best part of a year.
However, he goes well fresh having run really well on the back of long absences on three occasions before and he loved testing ground in his novice hurdling days.
Conditions look ideal and when we last saw him he was a seriously progressive chaser, racking up a record of three from six over fences with his worst finishing position a Grand Annual fifth.
It’s that sort of performance that shows he’s got a bit of pace but he stays 2m4f just fine, while he probably hit the front a bit too soon when he was mugged by Romain De Senam at Fontwell on his last start.
That rival improved 12lb in his subsequent runs but Not Another Muddle only went up 2lb to 140, so he looks reasonably well treated for his return on conditions that look set to bring out the best in him.
Finally, STRONG PURSUIT could be worth chancing in the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase at 10/1 (bet365).
He’s been dropped 7lb in four runs and while that is over a long period of time he does look fairly treated now off a mark of 132.
Last time he paid the price for forcing a strong pace in the Mandarin Handicap Chase won by subsequent Reynoldstown winner Copperhead, but he shaped nicely until tiredness set in and he’s worth another chance.
He clearly likes Newbury as he jumped really well here when winning on his chasing debut and this looks a good bit of placing from Philip Hobbs, seeing as he’s an unexposed chaser (had just four starts over fences) against a field of much more experienced veterans.
If ridden with a bit more restraint by Richard Johnson, he looks well-handicapped enough to go close.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 28/02/20
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +347.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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