Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on the Betfair Exchange Trophy card at Ascot on Saturday and he's backing Alan King to win the feature race again.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, December 21
1pt win Kobrouk in 1.50 Ascot at 10/1
1pt win Harambe in 3.35 Ascot at 11/1*
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*HARAMBE is a Non Runner (self cert - not eaten up)
It’s going to be really testing ground at Ascot on Saturday, if it gets the go ahead, and handling the conditions will be an absolute must, but there are a few question marks on that score among the contenders for the feature Betfair Exchange Trophy (3.35).
Nicky Henderson’s pair of French Crusader and Countister have not run on ground as heavy as this, while it might not be ideal for Whoshottheriff and Scaramanga either.
Umbrigado might well be okay but whether he has the pace for two miles is a vital question when weighing up his chance at 7/1, and Not So Sleepy looks short enough now at 9s, too, considering he’s unlikely to be presented with an easy lead this time.
The Greatwood Hurdle horses interest me the most as that form looks solid and I think Quoi De Neuf and Monsieur Lecoq will handle the ground just fine, but they both have work to do to reverse the form with Alan King’s HARAMBE (11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral).
The key thing with Harambe is he only went up 5lb for winning a good race and his superiority at Cheltenham could well have been masked by the narrow winning distance of a neck.
Held up off a slow pace, he did tremendously well to come from behind and win on the line and he looked to be going away from them at the finish.
It was officially soft at Cheltenham that day but it looked worse than that and Timeform recorded it as heavy, so he looks likely to be absolutely fine in Saturday’s conditions and more of a concern to some punters will be the setback he had earlier in the week.
King has not had a smooth passage with this horse this season as he had a setback before the Greatwood as well, but that just shows you that if his trainer gives him the green light he’s ready to roll - so I’m happy to back him despite him pulling out lame on Tuesday.
He reportedly pleased King in a workout on Friday morning and his trainer has a decent record in this race having won it in 2011 with Raya Star, while Lisp was a good second behind Mohaayed last year too.
The Greatwood form was boosted by fifth home Dame De Compagnie last weekend and off 143 with just two handicap appearances under his belt Harambe has more to offer in the sphere on his way up the ladder.
It’s a competitive race with plenty of chances, but the selection’s proven and recent form in similar big-field handicap company in similar conditions swings it for me. Any of the double-figure prices look fair.
Earlier on at Ascot First Flow has been backed into favouritism for the Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase at 1.50 and he’s got an obvious chance off 140 in conditions he’ll love.
However, Henderson’s KOBROUK has drifted out to 10/1 (General) and he looks the bet in the race after catching the eye over hurdles at Huntingdon last time.
He settled much better than he did at Aintree in the spring on his first run since wind surgery and it looked very much a stepping stone to being unleashed over fences by Henderson for the first time.
In France he was a Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner over fences at Auteuil and he was second in a couple of Grade 1 races as well, all of them in testing conditions, and judging by his toe-dipping run off 140 over hurdles last time I reckon he could be well treated over the bigger obstacles off 145.
Henderson had a winner for these owners at this meeting a couple of years ago when Gold Present won the Silver Cup and they often look to target this card, while they’ve had plenty of success with progeny of Saint Des Saints as well (Magic Saint and Sametegal spring to mind) in the past.
With the stable in great nick it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if Kobrouk managed to outclass Saturday’s opponents and odds of 10/1 are worth snapping up.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 20/12/19
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +370.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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