Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Saturday's tips for Ascot, Haydock & Newmarket on Shergar Cup day

Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Saturday August 11

1pt win Frankuus at 10/1 in 2.30 Haydock - caught the eye last time and the combination of track, trip and ground look ideal for a horse that is 2/2 here

1pt win Mamba Noire at 10/1 in 3.40 Newmarket - sets the form standard, has the most experience and they could be vital factors in the conditions. Expected to relish tackling seven furlongs

1pt win Private Matter at 12/1 in 4.00 Ascot - signs of life at Newmarket on latest start and handicapper has given him a real chance. Will handle conditions and trainer's first-time headgear record is icing on cake

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There has been plenty of rain around the country this week and even though Saturday is expected to be dry it looks like the soft-ground form book will be the most informative once again.

It makes things tricky, as trying to judge conditions 24 hours in advance isn’t easy, but after 28mm of rain at Ascot on Wednesday and a few more showers forecast on Friday night it looks like the Berkshire venue will be riding soft, or at least on the soft side of good, for the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup.

That makes the likes of Rakes Progress and Reachforthestars interesting in the Shergar Cup Classic at 3.25, but the hot-favourite Contango also likes it soft and I’m loathe to take him on under Kerrin McEvoy as he bids to maintain the perfect start to his career.

Instead, I’d rather wait until the last contest of the six-race card, the Shergar Cup Sprint, before striking a bet, as quite a few of the field need the ground to dry out markedly but that’s not the case for Richard Fahey’s PRIVATE MATTER and he’s worth backing at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, 10s General).

As a juvenile he peaked in the second half of the campaign and he ran his best race on his final start at two, when winning the Listed Prix Zeddaan at Maisons-Laffitte in soft ground at the end of October.

Rated 106 at the start of his three-year-old career after that, he’s struggled, but there was a clear sign of something last time at Newmarket when he was just over three lengths behind winning stablemate The Feathered Nest in seventh place.

Dropping 10lb to a mark of 96 certainly helped – and he’s down another 2lb to 94 on Saturday – while he would’ve finished at least a little bit closer but for major interference a furlong from home.

The most encouraging aspect of his performance was how he kept on after being hampered, as he could easily have chucked the towel in but stayed on nicely enough.

This looks a slighter weaker race and if he does handle the ground better than the majority of his rivals he’s well-handicapped enough to get this won.

The icing on the cake could be the first-time hood, as Fahey’s record with horses running in first-time headgear is +£110.30 to £1 level stakes for the last five years (thanks to boffins at Timeform for that particular stat.)

Away from Ascot the weather and ground situation is much the same. They’ve had 37mm of rain at Haydock this week and given there has been racing at the track on Thursday and Friday you’d expect the ground to be testing enough.

The feature race is the Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (2.30) and I thought Mark Johnston’s FRANKUUS was interesting enough in this to warrant a wager at 10/1 (General).

He’s been running over 10, 11 and 12 furlongs this season, but, while he’s been very consistent, he hasn’t appeared to see out his races over the longer distances and dropping back to 10 furlongs at Haydock looks a smart move.

I was really encouraged by his run behind Defoe, a horse that looks set for big things, at Hamilton last time as he raced with zest up front in the first-time blinkers and was only run down by a good horse in the closing stages.

If the blinkers have the same sort of effect second time up he should go close here dropped in trip. He’s another that improved in the second half of the season as a two-year-old and he won’t mind the cut in the ground.

He’s also two from two at Haydock and there’s a good chance Joe Fanning will be able to dictate the pace up front aboard the son of Frankel.

Bang in the mix on ratings considering the 8lb weight-for-age allowance, with plenty of factors in his favour he looks worth chancing at double-figure prices.

The theme of this preview has been the rain and Newmarket hasn’t escaped the weather, either. After 33mm of rain on the July Course on Wednesday it is riding soft and that is likely to have a bearing on the Group Three German-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (3.40).

There are a host of unexposed fillies lining up in this but experience could be a major asset in the conditions and Ken Condon’s MAMBA NOIRE looks underestimated at 10/1 (Sky Bet, 32Red, 888Sport) with that in mind.

Not only has she got the most experience, she also sets the form standard by virtue of a cracking run in third on this course in the Group Two Duchess of Cambridge Stakes last time.

Beaten only two and a quarter lengths by the winner, Clemmie, she was only half a length behind Nyaleti who followed the run up in sensational style by blitzing the Princess Margaret at Ascot by five lengths.

Dance Diva was second to Nyaleti at Ascot and is 7/2 favourite for this, but on a line through Mark Johnston’s filly quite why she is so much shorter in the market than Mamba Noire is hard to fathom.

The ground is an unknown with her, but you can say the same for most of the field and the hope is she’ll have the experience to deal with the conditions while those with only one or two runs under their belts might struggle.

She certainly shapes as though she will relish the extra emphasis on stamina in this, as she’s been running on really well over six, and is expected to improve again now she tackles seven furlongs for the first time.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +384.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

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Posted at 1700 BST on 11/08/17.