Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Sunday's action at Newbury and York

Recommended bets, Sunday July 19

1pt win Watan in 2.15 Newbury at 11/1

1pt win Tinochio in 2.50 Newbury at 10/1

1pt win Dark Lady in 3.05 York at 16/1

1pt win Just Hubert in 4.00 Newbury at 18/1

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WATAN has skipped a few potential engagements this year but isn’t one to be missing on his belated return to action at Newbury on Sunday.

It’s great to have some proper punting puzzles at the tail of the weekend and the bet365 Handicap looks a good race for a bet with no unexposed three-year-olds to muddy the waters.

Harry’s Bar featured in this column ahead of the Chipchase at Newcastle and James Fanshawe’s horse was far from disgraced in fairness. He’s seemingly got more races in him on the all-weather at least, but a turf record of 0-3 tempers enthusiasm now.

The Richard Hannon-trained Watan, however, is unbeaten over six furlongs on turf (2-2), recording impressive wins in a Goodwood maiden and a Leicester novice – both as a juvenile in 2018.

Between those victories he was second to Phoenix Of Spain in York’s Acomb Stakes and fifth behind Too Darn Hot in the Solario at Sandown, so it was no surprise to see the Hannons roll the big dice early last year.

It didn’t really work out, racing keenly and ending fifth to Skardu in the Craven (1m) before a much better neck third to Jash in the King Charles II Stakes back over seven furlongs at Newmarket.

Last seen finishing a mid-pack sixth in the Group One Prix Jean Prat won by Too Darn Hot on July 7, he looks the archetypal smart two-year-old, who struggles at three, before fulfilling the promise as a four-year-old.

He’s obviously been showing some of that early sparkle from his youth at home as the recent entries already touched upon included the Chipchase Stakes and Saturday’s Hackwood - both Group Three sprints.

So while 103 is no gimme of a mark on handicap debut there’s every chance he’ll hold a class edge over this field and conditions look fine with most of his experience so far gained on good ground.

Hannon has nothing to prove when it comes to readying one after a break, as advertised again by Al Madhar defying a 336-day layoff to win here at Newbury last month, and I’m sweet on this horse’s chances.

The Marsh Cup might not be as hot a line-up as we’ve come to expect in this race, Stratum and Withhold winning the first couple of editions, and I’m tempted to look towards the bottom of the weights for something lurking.

Roger Charlton – trainer of Withhold – will have been very pleased with True Destiny’s recent sighter on the all-weather at Kempton and his chances are pretty obvious despite being 7lb higher in the ratings than for his last success which came at York last summer.

The five-year-old has been well found in the market, though, which isn’t the case with outsider JUST HUBERT and I’m willing to forgive him the two runs this term after a winter gelding operation.

Trainer William Muir was left dreaming of an ambitious tilt at the 2020 Melbourne Cup for the son of Dunaden (who won the Flemington feature in 2011) after making a winning start over two miles at Musselburgh in September, and while an overseas jaunt now appears a touch fanciful, he’s back down to a mark just 2lb higher than in Scotland and could be ready to capitalise.

Last season ended in a whimper on bad ground in an Ascot Listed event and another no-show at Chelmsford but he ran better than the bare form of his reappearance effort at Haydock, on easy ground again, last month.

The Northumberland Plate was always going to be a stiff task for a hold-up performer given the way staying races tend to play out at the north east track and he was dead last right from the outset, before just picking off a few weakening rivals in the home straight.

He’s got loads to find with Australis and Carnwennan on a strict reading of that Newcastle form but it just wasn’t his running at all and the return to turf and quicker ground will see him in a better light.

His last visit to Newbury resulted in a fair third to St Leger winner Logician over a mile and a half, while I like the fact he’s tended to come on for a couple of races in the past – winning third time out in his debut season and on his fourth and fifth runs of 2019.

He comes with risks attached, admittedly, and Hollie Doyle is 0-12 for the yard, but the big price acts as reasonable compensation in a pretty open-looking race.

Kevin Ryan has never won the Weatherbys Super Sprint but it’s only a matter of time and his juveniles this year look a particularly sharp bunch.

TINOCHIO could easily be coming into the race unbeaten and he looked a real flying machine when winning by three lengths in a quick time at Hamilton last time.

That came on the back of a wildly eyecatching debut run when beaten a length from stall 12 and a very wide trip at Pontefract and the Hamilton second, Burning Cash, has since won by seven lengths at Chepstow, beating odds-on shot Vedute, who came out of the hot Newmarket race won by Eye Of Heaven at the start of the season.

Tinochio is evidently on a steep upward curve, doesn’t have the scars of Royal Ascot battle like many of these and should be backed accordingly.

It’s great to see the potentially exciting Brentford Hope declared for York’s williamHill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Stakes, and Boccaccio is going to be a skinny price in the William Hill King Charles II Stakes (salvaged from Newmarket).

I won’t be taking either on but the Group Three William Hill Summer Fillies’ Stakes has attracted a massive line-up and Hannon could be in business here too with DARK LADY fancied to run a big race.

There’ll be bags of pace on with Miss Celestial, Made In India, Breathtaking Look, Living In The Past and Royal Intervention not prone to hanging around, and while that is admittedly going to play to the strengths of favourite Jovial, it will also bring Dark Lady’s stamina into play late on.

Not many in this can match the level of her peak form when short-heading subsequent Cheveley Park Stakes winner Millisle in the Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury in September, and despite being put in her place by the same rival in the Group One at Newmarket, a subsequent breathing op might help explain that relatively tepid run.

Her Windsor pipe-opener late last month, when a staying-on fourth to Saturday’s Hackwood contender Repartee, should have blown away the cobwebs and it’s surely a run she can build on.

William Buick – 1-3 for the yard last year and yet to team up with Hannon in 2020 - coming in for the ride suggests connections are keen to stick to sprinting for now and she should get a decent tow into this race with most of the pace on her inside (stalls for the non-two-year-old races are in the centre).

Posted at 1215 BST on 18/07/20

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