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Weekend racing tips for Kempton & Newcastle: Value Bet Saturday February 27
Weekend racing tips: Saturday, February 27
1pt win Cyclop in 3.15 Newcastle at 10/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
1pt e.w. Young Wolf in 3.35 Kempton at 40/1 (Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Genuine spring like conditions could hold the key to unearthing winners at Kempton on Saturday and Jonjo O’Neill’s YOUNG WOLF (40/1 Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) is backed to cause a shock in the Close Brothers Handicap Chase.
Of course, he’s not the only one who should enjoy hearing the sound of his own hooves again, Cap Du Nord, Black Corton, Southfield Stone and Fingerontheswitch all entitled to step up on what they’ve been able to do over the wet, winter months, but none of them is being overlooked in the betting, certainly not quite to the same extent.
That’s definitely the case with Young Wolf and you can obviously see why given he’s barely raised a leg in two starts on soft ground during December and January but, as well as hating conditions, it needs stressing how good those races were.
First up he was sixth in a Newbury novices’ handicap chase won by subsequent Grade One third Paint The Dream, which also featured Dickie Diver and Demachine (second in the Reynoldstown since), while last time at Ascot he was all but pulled-up in the red-hot Ascot handicap won by Dashel Drasher, who has gone on to Grade One success at the same course.
So while this weekend’s race is clearly right up there in terms of quality and depth, it’s not like Young Wolf arrives after bombing out in lesser company, and his progress while the ground remained good at the back end of the summer was admirable.
After almost a year off – having won a handicap from a mark of 132 on his final hurdles start in September 2019 – he took to fences really well in July, showing his best form when presented with a test of stamina.
He looks a typical, late-developing chaser, the type of which O’Neill does so well with come the spring (holds entries in the Kim Muir and the Ultima at the Festival), and he’s still totally unexposed after six career starts over fences.
Moving back up to three miles on Saturday will help Young Wolf and while he’ll need a significant career-best to make an impact in this classy line-up, he looks an interesting each-way option with five places on offer, for the trainer/jockey team that won last weekend's major handicap pot at Newbury.
Tritonic a potential star on show at Kempton
Paul Nicholls’ Atholl Street looked well above average when defying a penalty at Taunton in December and should be hard to beat as he looks to tee himself up for a Grade One assignment at Cheltenham or Aintree in the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.
The slight snag when it comes to getting stuck into him at a relatively short price, however, is the presence of Emmet Mullins’ Cape Gentleman, whose latest Leopardstown effort looked too bad to be true.
Connections are seemingly keen to travel and test the water ahead of the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him prove that Dublin Racing Festival run behind Gaillard Du Mesnil all wrong.
I’ll be watching him with interest, likewise Tritonic in the Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle as he looks to back up his hurdling debut success at Ascot. I thought he shaped like a genuine, top-class juvenile there and might be able to rubber-stamp his Triumph Hurdle claims this weekend given he’s got high-class good ground form from the Flat.
In fact, he was beaten just a length and three-quarters by Subjectivist in the Glasgow Stakes last July on a decent surface at Hamilton and that horse ended up winning a Group One in France, so it’ll be disappointing if Tritonic is turned over here.
Perhaps fellow Triumph entry John Locke will put up most resistance. He was rated 85 on the level for Ralph Beckett and has winning form on good ground over 10 furlongs at Goodwood.
It’s unlikely he’ll be tapped for toe, while the Dan Skelton yard continues in pretty relentless form, operating close to the 30% mark in terms of win strike-rate for the month of February.
Eyeing up a bet at Newcastle
The Vertem Eider Handicap Chase is the big one at Newcastle and there doesn’t appear to be many horses likely to take on The Dutchman when it comes to front-running duties.
That could hand Tristan Davidson’s horse with a reasonable tactical advantage and he’s got a fairly obvious chance off the same mark as when falling while seemingly still in with every chance at Wetherby.
The rank outsider Haul Us In could act as a bit of a spoiler but there’s still a slight concern over whether the likes of last year’s winner Crosspark, Sams Adventure and Big River will get a race run to suit.
Crossley Tender is another hold-up performer who would be high on the list if there was a bit more pace signed on, but the best bet looks to be CYCLOP (10/1 bet365, BoyleSports) who is rarely too far off the lead and should be able to slot in right behind the front-runners under champion jockey Brian Hughes.
He takes over in the saddle from Lilly Pinchin who has done an amazing job on this horse all season, winning two handicap chases and a handicap hurdle at Chepstow in between for good measure.
The pair came unstuck when well-fancied (13/8 favourite) on Cyclop’s debut for new trainer Matt Sheppard last month, but the 10-year-old seemed to find Wincanton a shade too sharp, even on heavy ground, and he was also running back quickly to avoid a penalty for winning a veterans’ race for conditional riders at Plumpton in mid-January.
His revised rating has kicked in now so he’s 7lb higher than for that success but the Wincanton run was no disgrace at all and showed he was still in pretty good heart. Moving right up to a marathon trip around Newcastle should be far more suitable anyway and his neat jumping – something which has blighted one or two of his rivals lately – is a real asset.
Hertfordshire-based Sheppard has never had a runner at Newcastle before but it’s worth noting he’s got his string in good form with a couple of winners in the last fortnight (including one at 50/1) and the booking of Hughes, who rides Gosforth Park so well (11-48 this season at 23%), this weekend is clearly a very significant one.
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Published at 1600 GMT on 26/02/21
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