Check out the latest Value Bet preview as Matt Brocklebank highlights the best bets at Newmarket and York.
Recommended bets, Saturday October 10
1pt win Wise Counsel in 3.10 York at 22/1
1pt win Coeur De Lion in 3.35 Newmarket at 28/1
1pt win Dalton Highway in 3.35 Newmarket at 22/1
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There won’t be any hiding place in Saturday’s Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap with the ground officially riding soft at Newmarket.
That’s not unusual for this two mile, two furlong contest at the end of the season but there looks to be a fair amount of pace in the race this year – or there’s a distinct lack of genuine hold-up performers, anyway – and that should produce a particularly severe test of stamina.
Considering COEUR DE LION won one of the most taxing staying handicaps of the year – the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June – and is only 3lb higher in the weights after a perfectly respectable run on quick-ish ground at Goodwood in the interim, he’s got to be of interest.
It’s worth mentioning at this point the horse he beat at Ascot – Nicky Henderson’s mare Verdana Blue – was one of the antepost favourites for this, and yet Coeur De Lion is being overlooked at 28/1 (bet365, 25/1 generally).
It will be the horse’s fourth go at the Cesarewitch, remarkably, and to be fair it has gone rather downhill in terms of his performances in the race since rounding out a one-two for the Alan King yard behind Who Dares Wins in 2017.
But I’m willing to forgive last year’s effort when clearly not showing anything like his true form (jockey Shane Foley reported the horse ‘stopped quickly’ post-race), while he found the relative sprint for home totally against him on good to firm conditions in 2018.
It’s not too often he’s had his favoured 2m-plus on soft ground but when he has he’s largely performed to a very decent level and while there are far sexier profiles in this year’s line-up including three-year-old Coltrane and the well-in duo of Not So Sleepy and Mondain, the one thing you should be looking for is a horse who can really get down to business in a lung-busting, slug-fest.
Coeur De Lion is just that and looks to have been laid out for it since the Glorious meeting at the end of July – his career record in both codes after 50 days or more off reads 31215201.
A second string to the Cesarewitch bow is always comforting and with such a strong (numerically at least) Irish contingent, headed by likely market leader Great White Shark, I’m inclined to look to one of the raiders for another bet in the race.
Willie Mullins’ sole representative was always going to prove popular given he’s won the last two editions and there’s nothing wrong with her profile given she’s won over three miles over hurdles as well as two miles, one furlong on the level.
But I’m not entirely convinced she should be half the price of DALTON HIGHWAY (22/1 Hills), who the mare beat by a length and three-quarters at Galway last summer.
Dermot Weld’s runner was getting a couple of pounds on that occasion and now has to concede 8lb to the mare so it looks a tall order from a basic handicapping perspective, although Great White Shark’s three Flat runs since haven’t been much of an improvement in terms of form, whereas Dalton Highway still looks to be progressing.
His victory at the Curragh this June represented a big step up from the seven-year-old and he’s had excuses in two starts since – they didn’t go quickly enough for him at Galway in a race won by last weekend’s Group One winner Princess Zoe, while he again didn’t get the required stamina test when dropped to a mile and three-quarters at Killarney.
He is another horse who goes well when fresh so the 52-day break looks about perfect, as does the trip having been successful over two and a half miles in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown (soft) last Christmas.
Master trainer Weld – who hasn’t had a Cesarewitch runner since 2012 but won it courtesy of the great Vintage Crop in 1992 and sent out the second in 2002, fourth in 2003 and fifth in 2011 - is basically only just getting to the bottom of this stout stayer, and a return of the visor he’s worn in the past, which replaces the cheekpieces he had on last time, might just help spark another career-best effort.
Irish eyes could be smiling a little earlier with big home hope Chindit facing five fascinating rivals from Ireland in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes.
It’s not a race to be taking a particularly strong view in as the unexposed two-year-olds can obviously improve enormously between runs but it’s no surprise there was money for Cadillac through Friday afternoon.
Unlike the O’Briens, there are no reports of Jessica Harrington having to switch feeds following the issues over Gain products and Cadillac looked out of the top drawer when justifying strong support in a Group 2 at Leopardstown over Irish Champions Weekend.
He's now got to go and do it at the top table but has all the attributes you’d look for in a fully-furnished juvenile and he’s possibly the one to be on if drifting back out to a double-figure price on the day.
The allure of big-field sprints at York remains strong for many and the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap is about as hot a contest as you’re likely to get on the Knavesmire.
One that is surely over-priced is Clive Cox’s WISE COUNSEL, who was unlucky not to finish closer in the Ayr Gold Cup last month.
They’ve obviously thought long and hard about trip for this horse as he was a seven-furlong winner last autumn and got given an entry into the Balmoral Handicap over a mile on Champions Day, but I like the fact Cox is willing to roll the dice again over this distance.
Soft ground is clearly the key to the son of Invincible Spirit and the massive field here should really help bring his proven stamina into play at the death.
He was just starting to click into top gear when his momentum was checked slightly last time but he ran on to be beaten under three lengths by what is clearly a Group horse in the making.
The cheekpieces – worn for the first time there – are retained and it’s certainly not hard to see him reversing the form with Mr Lupton, Kynren and Lahore off a 1lb lower mark. He’s a very fair bet at 22/1 (bet365).
Posted at 1600 BST on 09/10/20
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