Ben Linfoot slips back into the old Value Bet routine while Matt Brocklebank is on holiday and he has three selections at Ascot on Saturday.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, October 31
1pt win Falco Blitz in 1.20 Ascot at 5/1
1pt win Hang In There in 3.05 Ascot at 9/1
1pt win Valtor in 3.40 Ascot at 17/2
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It’s a belting renewal of the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby with the highest-rated chaser in training, Cyrname, taking on last year’s winner Ballyoptic, the improving Vinndication and six more rivals.
He’s officially rated 15lb better than the second best horse in the race on BHA ratings, but his uneasy price of 9/4 tells you that this is likely to be a far from straightforward task for Paul Nicholls’ eight-year-old.
This race will likely answer a few questions still hanging over Cyrname – namely does he stay three miles and is he anywhere near as good going left-handed as he was at right-handed Ascot last year?
Those are two reasons why punters will be willing to take him on and this is a race that has rarely played out well for favourites in recent years, which would be another negative for him if you could be sure he that he’ll start market leader.
Vinndication looks the one most likely to take advantage if Cyrname is below his best, while La Bague Au Roi would be interesting getting all the allowances if the ground was better.
She was sent off at 5/2 for this race last year, wasn’t far off her best at Perth last time when a last-fence mistake thwarted her and she’s had wind surgery since – an eyebrow-raising move given her trainer Warren Greatrex has a good record following such procedures.
At 20s she’s tempting, but the softening ground is going against her and that’s one of many factors that makes the Wetherby feature a very tricky race to weigh up.
We’ll leave it alone and head to Ascot for Saturday’s bets starting with headline tip HANG IN THERE in the Sodexo Handicap Hurdle at 9/1 (General).
Emma Lavelle has had a quiet start to the season, but November time is when she traditionally hits her straps and given we’re approaching that month expect plenty more winners from her Marlbrough yard in the next few weeks.
Crucially Hang In There has had a run, just the type of horse Lavelle wins with at this time of year, and he ran like he needed it in a first-time hood at Fontwell on October 3.
Interestingly Lavelle has quickly dispensed with that aid and she’s been successful using the hood-off tactic before, as her Javert, Lets Hope So, Highly Prized and Jubilympics all won on their first starts without that particular headgear.
I’d expect Hang In There to race prominently back down in trip with the hood off and two miles and soft ground brought out the very best in him when he won the Sky Bet Supreme Trial at Cheltenham almost a year ago.
He won by three and 14 lengths that day from two rivals rated in the low 140s, so he could be well handicapped off 139 and he handled a right-handed and testing track well when dotting up at Exeter in his maiden hurdle.
Kid Commando is the one to beat, but he looks like he needs a step up in trip to me and I do wonder if something with genuine two-mile pace will have too many guns for him on Saturday.
Hang In There can be that horse and if Kid Commando can tow him into things even better. It could happen, as the duo look by far the most obvious pace angles in the race.
At the time of writing the going is Good to Soft at Ascot with rain forecast on Saturday, but I’m working on the basis it will be Soft by the time the Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase is off at 3.40 and with that in mind VALTOR is the one to be on at 17/2 (General).
There was money for him on Friday afternoon and I thought about pulling the plug, but he still looks a fair price and could even go off favourite so we’ll get him in the book.
The case for him is an obvious one. Nicky Henderson always has his team ready for the early Ascot meetings and he has a superb record, as you would expect, at this track, particularly in the early months of the season.
Indeed, Valtor has won first-time out at Ascot the last two campaigns, a staggering eight-length win in a handicap chase over Saturday’s course and distance in 2018, off a mark of 148, and a novice hurdle he was entitled to win just under a year ago.
Coming into Ascot fresh, on soft ground, is exactly what this horse wants, and off 150 he’s only 2lb higher than that aforementioned British debut.
While many of his rivals will have long-term targets in mind, this looks to be Valtor’s Gold Cup and he’s well worth backing now as the plunge continues.
Finally, the 5/1 (General) about his stablemate FALCO BLITZ looks perfectly fair in the Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at 1.20.
The Axom owners often target Ascot – think Far West, Irving and Fidux – and Henderson has a brilliant record in novice handicap chases at this track, winning seven from 16 at 43.75%.
They included Wenyerreadyfreddie, who hacked up by 18 lengths in this race two years ago, and while he had the benefit of a chasing run under his belt both Big Hands Harry and Beware The Bear won here for Henderson on their fencing bows.
There’s an obvious risk backing a novice chaser that has never seen a fence in public before, but Falco Blitz has always been considered a future steeplechaser by connections and it looks significant he’s pitched into handicap company at this track first time up.
He won first-time out last season, while his only other victory last campaign came at this track where he accounted for Blackfinch in a novice hurdle on soft ground.
Dr Sanderson is a threat but might’ve shown his hand after going up 7lb for winning last time and I’d much rather back Falco Blitz at similar prices. Again, Henderson’s horse could well go off favourite on what could be another excellent day at Ascot for the master of Seven Barrows.
Preview posted 1600 GMT on 30/10/2020
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