Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the highly competitive Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on Saturday and fancies Philip Hobbs to land the prize for a second time.
Racing betting tips: Saturday, January 30
1pt e.w. Guitar Pete in 3.15 Doncaster at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
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When it comes to favourites for big, Saturday handicaps Cap Du Nord looks somewhere close to rock solid.
He’s a young, improving chaser on a serious upward trajectory and is already 3lb ahead of the handicapper having split subsequent winners Royale Pagaille and Double Shuffle when second at Kempton on December 27.
Double Shuffle, 19 lengths adrift in third on that occasion, has since won off 2lb lower back over the same course and distance during January, while Royale Pagaille has gone on to win the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock pulling the proverbial cart, and now commands an official rating of 166.
So how do you go about making a rational case for something to beat the thriving market leader, other than simply suggesting his general 11/4 price just doesn’t really float your boat?
Most sensible punters will fight fire with fire and attempt to unearth the equally unexposed runners who could yet have more in hand if making the anticipated improvement.
The two who appeal most on that basis are One For The Team and Musical Slave, seven and eight-year-olds respectively and arguably the only horses in the line-up who might progress at a rate even greater than the well-backed jolly.
One For The Team – you may recall – featured in this column ahead of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase where he looked a big price (18/1 SP) on account of his previous Newbury second to Next Destination with the prospect of more to come.
He was taken out of his comfort zone by Shan Blue over Christmas and ultimately finished a well-held fifth (last to finish) but there was no disgrace in that and he could, in time, prove to be a well-treated chaser off a mark of 141, having won easily in a handicap hurdle at Newbury off 130 last February.
He's been really popular in the betting throughout Friday (5/1), as has the Philip Hobbs-trained Musical Slave (6/1) and you can see why given Richard Johnson makes the switch from Cheltenham, plus the fact he has far more substance to his form when it comes to handicaps. In addition, returning to three miles should spark further progress based on his one previous outing at the trip.
That came at Uttoxeter in a novices’ handicap last March (he was balloted out of the Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival having featured among the initial entries), where he was niggled along from a fair way out but ended up pushing Sam’s Adventure all the way to the line and going down just a length and a quarter.
The pair were 10 lengths clear of the rest and Sam’s Adventure, who was receiving 4lb on the day, has since gone up a total of 10lb after winning again on his second start this season, after which he was sent off 11/4 second-favourite against Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh (unseated rider).
Nudged up 4lb himself following the Uttoxeter effort, Musical Slave returned to action at Newbury on November 27 in a traditionally hot contest over two and a half miles, where Sully D’Oc AA appeared the JP McManus first-string on jockey bookings, as well as market confidence.
To be fair to him, Musical Slave dived at the very first fence, where he was also slightly hampered as Whatswrongwithyou unshipped Nico de Boinville, and was on the back foot straight away. He did stay on quite encouragingly in the closing stages, though, and understandably wasn’t knocked about after really making a mess of the final fence.
He gets in under bottom weight here but his tendency to miss the odd fence has to be a big worry in a race of this nature and I’m not sure trying to come from a long way back will be all that effective around this course on really soft ground.
Equally, there’s enough pace on with Yorkhill, Aye Right and Rockys Treasure to just about put me off that particular trio, and the value may now lie with Give Me A Copper and Nicky Richards’ GUITAR PETE (40/1 Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).
I’m convinced Give Me A Copper can win races off this sort of mark despite creeping up another 3lb for his course second behind Rockys Treasure on his first outing since a breathing operation last month, but on a testing surface, and at huge odds, I prefer the claims of Guitar Pete.
He handles all types of ground and should be well placed when the race unfolds as while he’s versatile tactically, he’s likely to sit mid-division early on and let the pace-setters do their thing.
The 11-year-old was just starting to make a meaningful-looking move before taking a crunching fall in the Kempton race won by Double Shuffle earlier this month, and must be none the worse or he wouldn’t be reappearing so soon.
That came after an eyecatching comeback fourth at Wetherby, where he has a really good record (form of 212104), and with that in mind it’s surprising he’s never been to Doncaster, where Richards’ late father, Gordon, won this race three times in its former guise.
The betting suggests Guitar Pete – who beat Clan Des Obeaux to win the 2017 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham – is completely over the hill now but those two outings so far this season suggest the opposite is true, and from a handicapping point of view he’s only 3lb higher than when readily seeing off Happy Diva in a Listed handicap at the start of last season.
He’s certainly no forlorn hope to roll back the years and can be supported each-way at 40s with a bunch of firms offering extra places.
Published at 1700 GMT on 29/01/21
