Matt Brocklebank tipped 14/1 and 8/1 winners last Saturday and is back to highlight the pick of the value on offer at Ascot and York.
Recommended bets, Saturday July 25
1pt win Black Lotus 2.05 York at 7/1
1pt win Shelir in 2.25 Ascot at 16/1
1pt win Greenside in 3.15 York at 13/2
1pt win Mascat in 4.10 Ascot at 10/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Moet & Chandon International Stakes has been kind to Yorkshire trainers in recent seasons and David O’Meara is obviously keen to add his name to the roll of honour with four horses declared in the big betting race on Saturday.
The most eyecatching of the lot is SHELIR (16/1 General) who looks well capable of picking up a race of this nature for his new yard.
Unraced at two, former handler Dermot Weld considered him good enough to contest the Irish 2,000 Guineas after just two public outings last term but that failed project seemed to set him back somewhat.
He was gelded and sold for €70,000 at the Goffs Autumn horses-in-training sales and does look a very useful acquisition for a yard who have excelled with other trainers' cast-offs, including the likes of Bravery who was with none other than Aidan O’Brien in his youth.
O’Meara would appear to have taken his time with the son of Dark Angel, Shelir being sent off at 22/1 at Newmarket first time up and the same price for the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot when putting in his best effort for his current handler.
The step back up to a mile back-fired at Haydock last time, where he moved like the best horse in the race before not finding a great deal on the soft ground.
He does handle a bit of cut, though, as you’d expect from his pedigree, and that’s a key factor this weekend with stormy showers forecast throughout the day at Ascot. He won’t mind if the rain misses the track, either, so I don’t care how the weather behaves, but it’s the return to seven furlongs – the trip at which he won a Curragh Listed race on just his second start – that I really like.
The Ascot course obviously holds no fears following his staying-on fifth from stall six (first four home emerged from 26, 22, 16 and 27) at the Royal meeting and he’s now 4lb lower than for that effort after an extra 2lb ease in light of Haydock.
Another low draw (stall three) could help explain his big price again but with Vale Of Kent, Habub, Gin Palace and Jack’s Point all drawn low there should be enough pace around him to alleviate any potential bias.
Top of the shortlist at the start of the week was 25/1 chance Blackheath and he’s a similar price now having been handed stall 15 under Luke Morris. The question mark with him is that he’s going to need the ground to remain on top as he’ll most likely be taken out if there are downpours on raceday.
He’s a genuine player otherwise after returning in good heart as a five-year-old this season, winning well at Yarmouth at the end of June, and he simply got no run after repeatedly being denied a clear passage in the Bunbury Cup.
The July Festival has been a rich source for providing winners of this event in the past decade (6-10) and he’s another who should enjoy this kind of test having looked a bit unlucky not to finish closer on his only previous course outing last September. There are still races to be won with Blackheath off a mark of 90, but I’m going to have to rely on the antepost position and not double down here given the forecast.
The race bound to garner most column inches this weekend is clearly the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes, and there will be many eager to see Enable back to winning ways and claim a piece of history as the only horse to win the race on three occasions.
I’d be a fraction concerned that she may just have lost that competitive edge as a six-year-old mare and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if the Ballydoyle team were able to manufacture a scenario in which last year’s Juddmonte International winner Japan could turn the tables from Sandown.
It’s a disappointing turnout, all told, and while it’s going to be dressed up as a fascinating tactical affair in some quarters, the race makes next to no appeal from a punting point of view which can’t be a good thing.
The opposite is true of the 12-runner betfred.com Handicap in which the three-year-old MASCAT (10/1 General) stands out.
The Classic generation has shown up well in the first three editions of this, Royal Associate winning in 2017 and three-year-olds finishing second and third in the two subsequent runnings of the 12-furlong contest.
There are only a couple of youngsters declared this time – each receiving 11lb weight-for-age – and one of them, the twice-race Media Storm, heads the market.
He switched from James Tate to David Simcock between his debut win at Wolverhampton in February and recent short-head second at Kempton, and could be really well treated off 82.
It will be his first public appearance on grass, though, and he also lacks handicap experience which can count for a lot, especially around Ascot.
Not only has Mascat gained course experience, having not been disgraced behind Russian Emperor in the Hampton Court, but he’s shaped quite well off this mark in a competitive three-year-old-only handicap at the July Festival since.
Not many horses were making up ground from off the pace throughout that meeting and he could only box on for fourth after being a fraction keen at the back of the field early on.
His form from last year reads really well, 10 subsequent winners including Group One scorer Palace Pier emerging from his Sandown debut and three winner from the Newmarket maiden he landed in September, while the Ralph Beckett yard looks to have just struck a rich vein of form (five winners in the last fortnight).
This appears a good piece of placement from the trainer.
Three-year-olds have won seven of the past 10 runnings of the SkyBet Britain’s Most Popular Online Bookmaker EBF Stallions Fillies’ Handicap at York and William Haggas’ Award Scheme is likely to top the market bidding to defy an 8lb hike for winning by a neck at Salisbury.
She could well be up to the mark but I’m sweet on Chris Wall’s five-year-old BLACK LOTUS (7/1 General) who might be able to see off the young pretenders.
She looks a typical late-maturing type Wall does so well with and really caught the eye with how she ran at Newmarket last month, sticking on from the back to be fifth behind the really progressive Montatham, who’s since won the Coral Challenge off a mark of 100.
Runner-up Ambassadorial gave the form another boost too when just denied by Gin Palace in a stronger race back at HQ, while the sixth home Jalad won here at York last weekend.
Black Lotus has claimed all four career wins over this 10-furlong trip so will relish the step back up from a mile and she won’t mind a spot of rain either to take the sting out of the ground.
She’s priced up as if the assessor has her measure now (6lb higher than for last win) but I see her potentially picking up some black type at some stage later this year and she clearly gets on well with returning jockey David Allan, who rode her to victory at Doncaster last May and has a very tidy record for the Wall yard in general (6-21 at 29%, +£49.50 level stakes profit).
The feature race on the Knavesmire is the Sky Bet York Stakes and the temptation is to row in again with Regal Reality, but I was slightly underwhelmed with him in the Coral-Eclipse.
He probably stepped up a couple of pounds from his promising Royal Ascot comeback but he’s no longer screaming five-year-old Stoute Group One winner to me, and if you’re keen to take on the top two in the betting then Aspetar might be the forgotten horse.
He’s very much in the mix on ratings – joint-second highest behind Elarqam – and dropping to a mile and a quarter seemed to trigger something at Sandown last time. The only horse from that Listed race to run again since is Global Giant, who won quite stylishly at Newbury, but Aspetar is only 8/1 in a place and generally 6s so we’ll pass on this occasion.
It's hard to form a strong opinion on the Sky Bet Most Extra Place Races Handicap given that only one of the 14 runners is priced above 14/1 at the time of writing.
The market could look decidedly different come the off and it’s not hard to envisage moves for Paddy Power or Swissterious, but I don’t want to take a flier on the off-chance.
The market for the Sky Bet Club Handicap looks a bit livelier and again we have a relatively lightly-raced three-year-old favourite in Richard Fahey’s Hartswood.
He’s respected trying a mile for the first time but there might be value not far behind him in the betting with veteran GREENSIDE the one to back at 13/2 (General).
Henry Candy has done a fantastic job with the fragile and hugely talented Limato over the years and this nine-year-old arguably put in a career-best performance when winning at Haydock earlier in the month.
That came on the back of a fine seventh in the red-hot Buckingham Palace at Ascot so he’s evidently thriving and it’s quite conceivable the return to a mile at York will help him overcome a 3lb rise.
Prior to last time, he’d only ever won over a mile (five victories at the trip in total) and his stamina really came to the fore on soft ground at Haydock. He doesn’t need rain – far from it – but he’d handle it if it came and he looks at least a couple of points too big in a race lacking depth (three of them are out of the weights).
Posted at 1500 BST on 24/07/20
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