Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from Ascot and Haydock on Saturday and he sees enough reason to back a 40/1 chance in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at the former track.
Recommended bets: Saturday December 22
1pt win Daklondike in 2.40 Haydock at 9/1
1pt win The Last Samuri in 3.00 Ascot at 18/1
1pt e.w Lord Napier in 3.35 Ascot at 40/1
1pt win Grand Sancy in 3.35 Ascot at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s a big Saturday card at Ascot so that means it’s a big day for Harry Fry, a trainer that’s in good form and one that has a terrific record at the Berkshire track.
He loves Ascot and has had 17 career winners there at a 28 per cent strike-rate; very healthy numbers for such a competitive venue.
Fry is represented in four races at the course on Saturday where he runs five horses, including Long Walk Hurdle second-favourite Unowhatimeanharry and Betfair Exchange Trophy favourite Jolly’s Cracked It.
That pair could well land him a memorable double, but it’s his biggest-price horse of the day that interests me as THE LAST SAMURI looks a tad underestimated at 18/1 (bet365, Sky Bet) in the Garrard Silver Cup at 3.00.
This is his stable debut having arrived at Fry’s from Kim Bailey’s, but his new trainer says he is happy with his new recruit following a racecourse gallop that should’ve put him spot on for this.
We know he goes well fresh as he has done many times in the past, but the key attributes he possesses with Saturday’s race in mind are his stamina and ability to go well in testing ground.
He’s perfectly at home in soft and heavy conditions and this race could turn into a real test at three miles which might not suit some of the market leaders.
The Last Samuri has a tough task off top weight but he’s carried big weights and run really well in similar races before and he’s been second in a heavy ground Becher Chase off a 2lb higher mark.
It’s tempting to look for something better handicapped than him, but guts and resolution are going to count for plenty in this race and we know this horse has such qualities.
A wind operation is another potential source of improvement and if that does help him produce his best form, then 16/1 is a very fair price indeed.
Fry’s Jolly’s Cracked It heads the weights and the betting for the Betfair Exchange Trophy at 3.35 and if he’s come out of his latest course win in good fettle he’s the one they all have to beat.
He loves Ascot having won here four times, including a dead-heat with Sternrubin in this race three years ago, but the nagging doubt is that he might well bounce on his second start after a 700-day break.
At the prices he’s worth taking on and the one that the market looks to have completely underestimated is Peter Bowen’s LORD NAPIER at 40/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, betway, 33/1 General, shop around for best each-way terms, Sky Bet are 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6).
This horse ran poorly on his only go in heavy ground but he has plenty of form on soft and he’s an improving, lightly-raced hurdler that stays further.
I like that attribute in this contest, so it looks a positive he’s won over 2m4f, and he hasn’t been suited by two relative speed tests at Haydock and Wincanton over two miles in two subsequent runs.
He improved for his seasonal reappearance last season and he’s expected to again after an eye-catching fourth at Wincanton last time, where he just simply looked to be done for speed over two miles on good ground.
The horse that finished half a length in front of him at Wincanton, Darling Maltaix, absolutely bolted up at Ascot on Friday, so the form is looking good and he’s going to appreciate a good gallop over this trip at this track.
Prices of 40/1 seriously underestimate his chance and he’s worth an each-way bet.
The other one I couldn’t knock off the shortlist was Paul Nicholls’ GRAND SANCY and at 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Boylesports, 18/1 General) I’m backing him as well.
It’s quite difficult to weigh up the merits of his novice hurdling form relative to these hardy handicappers, but there’s little doubt he’s improved massively since wind surgery and I want to back him while he’s on a roll.
I don’t think the testing ground will be any issue for him but I’m looking forward to seeing how he copes in a big-field handicap scenario as it could bring out the very best in him.
In his novice hurdles he’s raced freely on several occasions, including last time when he got away with it at Haydock, so he should really thrive if getting cover off what will likely be a sound gallop in this large field.
Lorcan Williams, who won on the aforementioned Darling Maltaix at Ascot on Friday, takes another 5lb off, and if he gets him settled in the early stages a career-best could well be forthcoming.
Finally, DAKLONDIKE looks the one to be on at 9/1 (General) in the Smarkets Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock (2.40).
It’s soft, heavy in places up at Haydock with more rain in the air on Saturday and this horse loves a dour test.
With that in mind, much quicker ground at Cheltenham last time was far from ideal, so he’s easily forgiven that, and off 139 he’s fairly handicapped on the pick of his form.
A winner in first-time cheekpieces at Wetherby last year, it looks significant that David Pipe switches that headgear for a first-time visor on Saturday, and it would be no surprise to see him regain the winning thread now conditions are much more to his liking.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +329.49pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 GMT on 21/12/18.
