Matt Brocklebank has a 33/1 fancy in the big betting race at Ascot on Saturday - don't miss his advice as he looks to follow last week's 10/1 winner.
Racing betting tips: Saturday December 19
1pt win Enrichissant in 1.50 Ascot at 16/1
1pt win Sam’s Adventure in 2.40 Haydock at 18/1
1pt win Beware The Bear in 3.00 Ascot at 12/1
1pt e.w. West To The Bridge in 3.35 Ascot at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
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"I'll hopefully train a lot of good horses in my career, but I’ll never forget Willow’s Saviour."
Dan Skelton has gone on to achieve a great deal at an even higher level since that line on an unforgettable day (for him at least) at Ascot in 2013 when winning the Betfair Exchange Trophy (then-Ladbroke Hurdle) just four months into his training career, but the trainer clearly still takes a huge amount of joy from plundering big handicap hurdles.
He’s done just that with North Hill Harvey in the Greatwood, Superb Story, Mohaayed and Ch’tibello in the County, and returned to land this weekend’s pot for a second time courtesy of Mohaayed two years ago.
This season responsibility goes to WEST TO THE BRIDGE (33/1 Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6), who is a massive price based on the fact he’s a bit of a surprise selection to represent the team after running over three miles at the end of last month.
But the Skeltons don’t really deal in guesswork and you can just about bank on the fact that Harry’s feedback after Haydock centred around stamina – or lack thereof – and a significant drop in trip.
The horse clearly didn’t stay the distance, but the way he cruised through the race to the second-last flight showed he was still right at the top of his game, before succumbing to four stronger stayers headed by David Pipe’s Main Fact.
The winner goes into Grade One company with a very realistic chance of at least bustling up Thyme Hill and Paisley Park in the feature Porsche Long Walk Hurdle, and it will clearly be fascinating to see how he fares just an hour before West To The Bridge goes to post.
But even without that evidence it’s hard to escape the idea that it’s already really strong form, the fourth Ask Dillon since being beaten a head off 1lb higher at Carlisle and seventh Kalashnikov pushing Mister Fisher within a couple of lengths in the rescheduled Grade Two Peterborough Chase at Cheltenham last week.
West To The Bridge has been a hard horse to get right, that much is obvious, although there was a hint at what was to come when a gambled-on second behind Sirobbie on his Uttoxeter comeback in early-October, after which he bolted up off a mark of 133 over two and a half miles at Carlisle.
💪 @harryskelton89 that is saucy
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 1, 2020
This £20,000 contest goes to West To The Bridge under an ice-cool ride for @DSkeltonRacing at @CarlisleRaces
Results & free replays ➡ https://t.co/sBcsavHpYf pic.twitter.com/f8Xe0WSAPI
Held onto for as long as possible there, he powered through the heavy ground before winning as he liked with a smart turn of foot, and I’m convinced it wasn’t the 7lb higher mark that prevented him following up at Haydock.
Dropping right back to two miles is slightly odd, admittedly, and has clearly put punters off. But it really shouldn’t as he’s a two-time winner over similar trips in the past and, in such a hotly-contested race in which Not So Sleepy and Botox Has feature among four or five confirmed front-runners, it could just turn out to be a genius move by an in-form trainer with a bit of a romance for Ascot in December.
Top weight BEWARE THE BEAR (12/1 General) looks the bet in the Good Luck Hollie In SPOTY Silver Cup Handicap Chase.
He’s one of a small number of genuine Grand National horses in Nicky Henderson’s yard and Aintree was seemingly the plan last season, having run over hurdles at Cheltenham in January.
But I’m not much of a believer in Henderson scheming away and protecting marks for horses like Beware The Bear (he completely blew Valtor’s when winning this race by eight lengths in 2018), whose reappearance fifth in the Ladbrokes Trophy was pretty encouraging on ground far too lively for him at this stage of his career.
He can be a quirky animal and drops himself out occasionally so the testing conditions this weekend should help him stay in contention before his stamina begins to kick in – which is sometimes all too late in the day though he has won over this course and distance back in his novice days.
Still 6lb higher than for his peak-form Ultima win at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019, there are no real concerns from a handicapping perspective given he was beaten just two and a quarter lengths when fourth in last year’s Ladbrokes Trophy off a 1lb higher mark.
On that form he’s 10lb better off with The Conditional and 1lb better off with Mister Malarky and, while the former was comfortably in front of him back at Newbury last month, David Bridgewater’s horse was always going to travel far more smoothly that Beware The Bear on the good going that day.
The Conditional is also the market leader this weekend and, if backing him at short prices, I’d be slightly worried about him going right-handed for the first time in Britain. Ascot can catch horses out at the best of times and The Conditional’s progressive form has all come going the other way around.
I am drawn, however, to his stablemate ENRICHISSANT (16/1 General) at a big price with Brendan Powell back on in the “For The Love Of Racing” Handicap Chase.
Not only does he like jumping around a right-handed circuit, he’ll absolutely love the underfoot conditions having won by 18 lengths on heavy ground at Huntingdon in February.
He’s higher in the ratings now and potentially biting off a bit more than he can chew in this relatively exalted company, but he clearly bounced back from a limp Kempton run two starts ago when third – beaten just two lengths – at Doncaster last time.
All three runs so far this season have been on ground quicker than ideal and he could only plod on at the one pace when tackled by a couple of nippier rivals on Town Moor. He did stick at it well, though, and I really like a prominent racer over the intermediate trip around the chase course at Ascot if able to get into a good jumping rhythm.
This horse does attack fences with a bit of style and he might be a tricky one for his rivals to catch under such a low weight. Given his price, I’m certainly keen to see them try.
Up at Haydock, McGowan’s Pass looks the one to be on in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle but his odds look no more than fair at the time of publication so preference is to take on the top two in the betting for the Betfair Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase.
Sojourn has gone up to 140 from 129 following a wide-margin win at Carlisle, while Hill Sixteen was made to pull it out of the fire when well-in back over hurdles last month – he’s 15lb higher than that mark as he returns to fences this weekend.
It could be worth taking a punt on the Brian Ellison-trained SAM’S ADVENTURE (18/1 Hills), who has won four times on heavy ground throughout his career.
He’s only got one chase victory on the CV which came in a novices’ handicap at Uttoxeter in March but he was running well in good company early last term, with a Carlisle fourth to Two For Gold and a neck second to Lord Du Mesnil at Newcastle among the more notable performances.
Unlike the aforementioned pair in this field, he’s not quite firing on all cylinders yet this time around – he was pulled up behind Sojourn at Carlisle – but he did comparatively well to finish fifth here last time having been under the pump a long way out and then badly hampered following a faller in the back straight.
He was never in contention in truth, but all he does is stay and he could be taking a couple of outings to reach peak fitness this season.
The handicapper has dropped him another 2lb so he’s just 4lb higher than when last successful and for the first time in the horse’s career Ellison turns to Brian Hughes, who has an excellent record for the yard (25% strike-rate) and rode another winner for the trainer at Uttoxeter on Friday. The standout 18/1 looks worth a small play.
Published at 1500 GMT on 18/12/20
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