Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Newbury and Newmarket on Saturday

Recommended bets, Saturday August 15

1pt win Orbaan in 2.25 Newbury at 8/1

1pt win He’s A Keeper in 2.40 Newmarket at 20/1

1pt win Sextant in 3.00 Newbury at 11/1

1pt win Ugo Gregory in 3.15 Newmarket at 10/1

1pt win Namos in 3.35 Newbury at 12/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Thundery showers is just about the worst forecast imaginable for punters but with every weather map showing a high chance of the wet stuff hitting Newmarket overnight and into Saturday, I’m going to focus on a couple of horses who will welcome some ease underfoot.

First up is the Tom Dascombe-trained HE'S A KEEPER (20/1 William Hill) in the seven furlong Betway Handicap.

It’s hard to argue with Tom Clover’s Broughtons Gold being favourite here as he’s going through the ranks nicely. He also won his novice over this trip last October so shouldn’t mind the extra furlong after winning over six at Windsor, where the softening of the ground was said to be in his favour.

Another 4lb hike does demand more of him, though, and at the prices I want to be with He’s A Keeper, who would be a much stronger stayer at this trip having done the majority of his racing over a mile.

He really powered through the soft ground at Haydock when winning there this time last year, after which he didn’t quite come up to scratch in a couple of Listed races won by Pyledriver and King Carney.

Gelded over the winter, the son of Brazen Beau came into this season rated 93 and was pitched into the red-hot Newcastle handicap won by Palace Pier, before running in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot (which has also worked out seriously well), being well beaten on both occasions.

He had his sights lowered a little on the July Course at Newmarket last month but was too keen for his own good and ended up fifth of the seven runners having looked to have a genuine shot passing the two-furlong marker.

The handicapper has really started to relax his grip now, dropping him another 4lb for Newmarket, and there must be a chance he can do some damage off 85 given that promising juvenile form.

There was certainly enough encouragement last time out to suggest he’s not a lost cause and the way he shaped suggests he’ll relish a return to this distance. Cheekpieces also go on for the first time in a bid to help get his act together and I’m willing to take the chance they have a positive effect.

Frankel colt Boss Power looks hard to oppose in the Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap in spite of racing on quick ground to date, but the Betway Grey Horse Handicap is a fair punting opportunity this year with a considerable 23lb dividing top and bottom in a field of 12.

Case Key is back for another go having won the race in 2017 and last year, as well as finishing a good third in 2016, and he’s a perfectly plausible winner having looked in good form again lately. He’s not gone up in the weights for last month’s Yarmouth second to Aristocratic Lady so yet another big run is anticipated.

But at twice the price preference is for bottom weight UGO GREGORY (10/1 General). Trainer Tim Easterby is already well on the way to having his most productive month since racing’s resumption and some heavy rain in the area would be music to his ears when it comes to this horse.

He didn’t get anything like a clear run at things when ultimately comfortably held at York last time but it’s interesting to see the blinkers tried for the first time there are enlisted once again.

He’s clearly becoming well handicapped, despite being far from disgraced on all three runs in 2020, and he struck gold off this mark of 64 on good to soft ground at Nottingham on August 13 last year. He’s another that stays further than this distance too so, when it comes to Newmarket, let’s hope the localised storms don’t bypass this part of the world.

The ground at Newbury was updated to good to soft on Friday morning after 12mm of rain over the preceding couple of days and there are expected to be showers right through to Sunday.

So the chances of it drying out again look quite slim, though can’t be completely ruled out. If they manage to avoid any extremes of going, I’m happy to stand by Monday’s antepost take that SEXTANT (11/1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor) is the one to be on in the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

He’s got old foe Morando to contend with and, admittedly, Andrew Balding’s grey is tough to crack when the mud is flying, but I’m convinced Sextant wasn’t at his best when stepped up in grade for this race last year.

It came on the back of a big effort to win an Ascot handicap and it looked like he wilted a little late on, but he bounced straight back at Chester the following month and if you judge him on that one-length defeat of Manuela De Vega then he’s a match for anything in this line-up.

Sextant did sign off last year with another soundly-beaten second to Morando back at Ascot, though his seventh start of the season was probably enough at that stage of the year so it's another defeat I can just about excuse given how good he's looked when at his peak.

Freshened up with another winter behind him and the Sir Michael Stoute team in great shape, I want to side with the massive son of Sea The Stars first time up as he seems to get on well with Louis Steward (Oisin Murphy rides stablemate Alignak).

I eventually whittled the Unibet Hungerford Stakes down to two, one of which being a 10/1 shot who merits a place on the staking plan.

You can’t really beat Group One form when it comes to Group Two races and whereas Threat, Pierre Lapin and, to a lesser extent, Glorious Journey have all looked a bit lost at the highest level, Dream Of Dreams has twice gone really well in Group One company.

Stoute’s six-year-old looked about as good as ever when beaten a head again in the Diamond Jubilee in June, while his career form figures over seven furlongs read 1522. Other than that small race he won at Lingfield, however, he has tended to look a bit vulnerable late on over this trip and given the fact he’s going to go off favourite here, I think it’s enough of a concern to take him on.

The other horse who brings reasonable Group One form to the table is NAMOS (12/1 bet365) and his July Cup effort last month can be marked up as he found himself situated away from where the action was unfolding. He also lost a left-fore shoe so William Buick looking after him for another day when his chance had gone was a sensible move.

He was well held in a couple of top-class events as a three-year-old, including the Prix Jean Prat won by Too Darn Hot, but had looked an improved typed with Group Three wins on home soil earlier this year.

Trainer Dominik Moser isn’t a regular visitor to Britain but has sent out three winners here including Waldpfad who took the Hackwood Stakes as an outsider at Newbury last season so he clearly thinks this horse is up to the task.

Perhaps he’ll take heart from the fact last year’s winner Glorious Journey arrived here following an eighth-placed finish in the July Cup too, but regardless of that there is a sense that he’s been overlooked by the majority of British punters.

There’s not as much strength in depth as you might expect in the Unibet You’re On Handicap earlier on the Newbury card and I wouldn’t be a surprised to see a late shake-up in the market which promotes ORBAAN (8/1 BoyleSports) near the top of the list.

He might well have been prepared for the Lincoln in a normal year, being an Andre Fabre cast-off shrewdly snapped up and sent to David O’Meara, but new connections have had to bide their time.

The horse has been a little in-and-out in his three starts for the yard, though the quick ground was presumably a fair excuse at Newmarket, while last time wasn’t too much of a backward step having won at 25/1 at York on July 9.

He was put up 4lb for that victory over subsequent Glorious Goodwood winner Muraad and wasn’t alone in just struggling to cope with well-treated three-year-old Hartswood late on.

Orbaan moved like the classiest horse in that race and I’d be amazed if he wasn’t able to genuinely compete at Group level before the year’s out - he just took a little while to engage top gear for some reason.

A return to softer ground will play to his strengths here and he looks well worth another chance off an unchanged mark of 104 before having his sights raised again.

Posted at 1500 BST on 14/08/20

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