Cheltenham Festival betting tips: Friday, March 19
1pt win Petit Mouchoir in 1.55 Cheltenham at 33/1 (General)
1pt win Le Patriote in 1.55 Cheltenham at 50/1 (General)
1pt win Frodon in 3.05 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General)
1.5pts e.w. Frontal Assault in 4.50 Cheltenham at 16/1 (Hills, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
The 2021 WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup looks a fabulous race in prospect and while the betting market has essentially been fully mature for some time now, the runners aren't necessarily in the correct order if you strip away all the hype.
In fairness, there are very few reasons to oppose the treble-chasing Al Boum Photo, who has enjoyed the same, light preparation and appears to come into this year’s edition in good shape with the Willie Mullins team rattling along at a tremendous rate once again.
The only possible negative would be the prospect of genuinely good ground, something which prompted connections to pull him out at the 2019 Dublin Racing Festival, but it’s hard to envisage a scenario in which Cheltenham allow the going to become quite that lively so it’s only a very minor niggle.
An evidently drying surface does change the complexion of the race slightly, though, with conditions looking a blow for the chances of Native River, Royale Pagaille and Santini, and the two who appeal most on that basis are FRODON and Lostintranslation.
Frodon goes on just about anything around here but the prevailing ground should in theory help the 2019 Ryanair winner get home over Friday's extended trip.
It’s also worth noting the SPs of the past 10 King George winners to have contested the Gold Cup the following spring, which read: 7/1, 5/1, 4/1, 5/2, 3/1, 11/4, 7/2, 3/1, 7/2 and 8/11.
Only one of those (Long Run) went on to convert at Cheltenham the same season and holes can be picked in this year’s Kempton race, at least from a tactical perspective, but it’s hard to throw stones at Frodon having enjoyed half a dozen Cheltenham wins already, including the 2019 Cotswold Chase (soft ground) which is run over a journey just 234 yards short of the Gold Cup trip.
He's the joint-third highest-rated in the field on official figures, has achieved more than any of his rivals to this point barring the favourite and is certain to get an uncomplicated, prominent ride from Bryony Frost, who may have been eyeing Thursday's three front-running winners with some relish.
The horse's jumping is as good as you'll see at Cheltenham and the real shock with him is that he was able to win so well at Kempton on Boxing Day. At 14/1 it's very hard to argue he isn't over-priced so he makes the day-four staking plan.
Colin Tizzard’s Lostintranslation has clearly had issues but it’s also the case he’s run just three times since finishing a fine third in last year’s Gold Cup. So to judge him so harshly may be a little premature when it comes to a really talented nine-year-old who might just come back to life with the sun on his back this spring.
Personally, I thought his Newbury run last month – following another breathing operation – wasn’t completely devoid of promise, though I’m still not inclined to go double-handed in the Gold Cup by backing him as well.
Take two in fiendishly puzzling County Hurdle
There’s clearly a whole swathe of exciting novices who could be miles ahead of their marks in the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle.
The really sexy ones are Ganapathi, Fifty Ball, Third Time Lucky and Champagne Gold, but they’re not alone.
Nigel Twiston-Davies apparently came very close to running Gowel Road in the Sky Bet Supreme, while Willie Mullins’ maiden Captain Kangaroo could just about be anything having slammed Kilcruit in a Clonmel bumper this time last year.
The most eyecatching of all is Martin Brassil’s second-season novice You Raised Me Up, a long-time fancy for this race last year before he was withdrawn on account of the soft ground.
He’s two from two in considerably lesser events this season but did give weight and a beating to Petibonome – who had finished second to subsequent Grade Two Dovecote winner Cape Gentlemen on his previous start – in the Red Mills EBF Auction Novice Hurdle at Naas on February 13.
The British assessor has bumped him up another 5lb compared to his new Irish mark, but 141 could still underestimate the lightly-raced eight-year-old, who has been heavily backed ever since his intended target became clear (was also in the Coral Cup at the five-day stage).
Having said all that, there’s always scope for a relatively well-established horse to stamp their class on proceedings in the County, as demonstrated by recent victories for Arctic Fire (2017) and Ch’tibello (2019), who had both contested the previous season’s Champion Hurdle, and two stand out this year who look to follow the same path.
The glaringly obvious one is PETIT MOUCHOIR, who changed hands for £70,000 in September when bought by Noel and Valerie Moran from Gigginstown. Following the sale, the horse switched from Henry De Bromhead to Gordon Elliott who, given his MO, may well have been aiming at this prize all along with the now 10-year-old, and he’s had just about the perfect prep having run well – but not too well – in very good company through the winter.
The one blip was a rare no-show in the Irish Champion Hurdle on February 6, especially given how well he’d run when third behind Sharjah first time out for the yard over Christmas, but he’s since got back on track with a creditable second behind Jason The Militant in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle.
All three runs have come on bad ground which the son of Namix handles perfectly well, though five of his six career wins have featured good or yielding in the official going description so he’ll be right at home here.
The local assessor has only nudged him up 2lb compared to his rating back home too, and although lumbered with top weight, he does look well in based on loads of his old form, not least his fifth to Epatante in last year’s Champion and third to Buveur D’Air in the 2017 renewal.
Jockey Jordan Gainford, who opened his Cheltenham account on Thursday aboard The Shunter after hitting the bar on The Bosses Oscar in the Pertemps Final, has also ridden two winners for the yard and takes off a very handy 7lb in the saddle.
He’s a very fair bet at 25/1 and bigger, while last year’s Champion Hurdle also-ran LE PATRIOTE also makes some appeal at the odds.
He’s not jumped a hurdle in public since trailing home on the testing ground last March but has had a mixed time of things since belatedly being sent over fences this year, winning two of his five outings.
They weren’t gimmes either – he beat the 146-rated Elixir De Nutz giving him 2lb at Hereford in December having opened the campaign with a four-length defeat of 151-rated Betfair Hurdle winner Pic D’Orhy at Market Rasen.
It was good ground there and all his best form has come on a sound surface so it’s not hard to see him relishing a return to timber this week, while the handicapper looks to have let him in fairly lightly on 145, some 9lb lower than when starting out last season having won the Swinton Hurdle off top weight (148) in May 2019.
I like his profile under another capable 7lb claiming rider in Cillin Leonard, who has a very tidy 2-4 Cheltenham record so far and a 21% overall strike-rate (10-48) for Le Patriote’s uber-shrewd trainer Dr Richard Newland.
What is the best bet on Gold Cup day?
I’ve liked Adrimel with the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in mind all season but the way it’s panned out so far this week it appears the Irish novices, and hurdlers in particular, are miles clear of their British rivals.
The relatively experienced Fakiera ran well in first-time cheekpieces at Leopardstown in February and he’s the one I’d be with but it’s not a particularly strong view, while the betting for the JCB Triumph Hurdle has become quite cramped.
Quilixios each-way might be the best way to play the race if he drifts a touch, but I’ll have to settle for the decent Antepost Angle position on Tritonic and hope that somehow he can stop the Irish completely dominating this division too.
The other big betting race on day four is the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle and Petit Mouchoir’s jockey Jordan Gainford could be in business here again having picked up the ride on FRONTAL ASSAULT for Denise Foster.
He’s a proper three-miler chaser in the making but has gained lots of experience in maiden and novice hurdles this season, never better than winning the Grade Three Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle at Navan late last month.
That took his record in cheekpieces to 2-2 and he seemed to resent the blinkers when tried in them in a Leopardstown handicap between the brace of victories at the Dublin Racing Festival in early-February.
The Mercedes-Benz, usually run at Clonmel but rescheduled for Navan following waterlogging at the former course, is always a seriously good pointer to the future having been won by Irish National winner Folsom Blue in 2012, Monalee in 2017, Chris’s Dream in 2018 and Allaho in 2019.
In 2014 Don Poli took top spot for Willie Mullins before coming to Cheltenham to win the Martin Pipe from a handicap mark of 143 and there’s a pretty strong chance Frontal Assault has been very fairly treated with a BHA rating of just 136.
There was support for him throughout Thursday but I’d be keen at any rate down to 12/1 so he should be backed accordingly each-way.
Published at 1600 GMT on 17/03/21
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