Cheltenham betting tips: Wednesday, March 17
1pt win Sporting John in 1.55 Cheltenham at 12/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Shakem Up’Arry in 2.30 Cheltenham at 40/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pts e.w. Nelson River in 2.30 Cheltenham at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt win Nube Negra in 3.05 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Glen Forsa in 4.15 Cheltenham at 28/1 (General)
It could be a day to remember for Willie Mullins as he looks to secure a career grand slam of the Cheltenham Festival championship races courtesy of Chacun Pour Soi in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Min and Un De Sceaux have filled the runner-up spot for the trainer in recent years but Chacun Pour Soi’s credentials are arguably even more solid coming into the race.
The only real negative you can level at the nine-year-old is that he lacks Cheltenham experience and perhaps any chinks in the armour will be exposed by one of the four course and distance winners in opposition – namely Rouge Vif, Sceau Royal, Politologue and Put The Kettle On.
In reality, however, the biggest danger is Dan Skelton’s unexposed, strong-travelling NUBE NEGRA, who has never won here but ran well when third in the 2018 Fred Winter and wasn’t disgraced in the Greatwood when still a four-year-old at the start of the following season.
The enforced time off he had after running at Warwick last February looked to have done him the world of good when thrashing Altior in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on December 27, and while taking a strict reading of that form could be dangerous, he travelled and jumped especially well to ultimately win eased down.
The Old Course at Cheltenham is a world away from Kempton but still poses a real test of speed and Nube Negra should get the race run to suit with First Flow and reigning champ Politologue two of the more likely pace-setters.
There’s a small temptation to dip into the side markets where he’s 4/1 (Sky Bet) without the favourite and 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) to fill one of the first two places, but he’s a genuine runner with a big chance for me and any drying of the ground into Wednesday will boost his claims. He’s a win-only bet at 10s or bigger.
Does anything appeal against Monkfish?
The Mullins-trained Monkfish looks like he could be out of the ordinary but, nevertheless, I’d always be slightly wary of what appears a wildly impressive performance on soft ground just a month before the Festival, and with that in mind SPORTING JOHN is the bet at a double-figure price in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
Trainer Philip Hobbs has had a rollercoaster sort of season but his horses were really out of sorts when Sporting John made his chasing debut at Exeter in November, and he left that well behind when winning the Grade One Scilly Isles over two and a half miles from Shan Blue at Sandown.
That gives him a very fair chance of beating The Big Breakaway, who had been comfortably held by Shan Blue after jumping mistakes at Kempton over Christmas, and there looks to be so much more to come now granted a proper test at three miles
He won his point at this trip on soft ground so conditions aren't an issue and last season’s disappointing Festival run (sent off 5/1) behind Envoi Allen in the Ballymore doesn’t worry me too much either as the stable was in the doldrums a bit then too (3-32 at 9% last March).
Hobbs has had seven winners in February and already has four on the board for this month so looks to be in much better shape overall going into this year's meeting and six-year-old stable star Sporting John still has bags of potential over fences.
Take two at long odds in Coral Cup puzzle
If there’s going to be another massive-priced winner at Cheltenham this week then the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is one of the most likely sources and I’m prepared to chance a couple each-way to small stakes.
The first is rank outsider NELSON RIVER, one of six course winners in the line-up having landed the JCB Triumph Trial at the International meeting in 2018 en route to finishing fourth in the big one for juveniles at the Festival the following spring.
He hadn’t won a race of any description since then before taking advantage of a lowly Flat opportunity at Wolverhampton this January, but he’s come down the ratings as a result and can be given a realistic chance of hitting the frame here based on a couple of pieces of form in big handicap hurdles in the intervening period.
The first of which was a perfectly decent, staying-on ninth in last year’s Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 142, while he produced an even more eyecatching effort when fourth behind Buzz at Ascot this winter from 138, where he again looked to be crying out for a step up in distance.
The six-year-old’s subsequent run back at Cheltenham in December was admittedly far less inspiring, but the ground was awful and won’t be as bad this week, while it’s pretty clear he’s just been ticking over since that latest hurdles run with two low-key Flat spins on the all-weather at Kempton and Wolves.
He’ll really enjoy a return to jumping and has been cut some more slack (3lb) by the assessor since last seen in this sphere, allowing him to compete off a career-low National Hunt mark of 133.Combine the reduced rating with slightly better ground, and the first go at two miles, five furlongs, and he’s worth a small interest at huge odds with the firms offering extra places.
Another one I like stepping (back) up in distance is Ben Pauling’s SHAKEM UP’ARRY, who was down the field in last year’s Ballymore won by Envoi Allen.
That race has thrown up a dozen subsequent winners and counting and was one of the hottest races at the 2020 Festival so there was no disgrace in finishing out of the picture after making the running early on.
The horse looked to have put the experience to good use when winning a small race at Ffos Las on his seasonal return, since when he’s run three decent races in defeat, the pick of which a Grade One second behind Metier in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown.
He was no match for Harry Fry’s star – who failed to figure in Tuesday’s Sky Bet Supreme – on that occasion but did shape encouragingly enough from well off the pace after attracting pretty strong support (11/1) in the Betfair Hurdle last month.
The ground had dried right up on the day and Shakem Up’arry was palpably outpaced before only plugging on, but he’s been eased a pound in the weights and is marginally better off with Guard Your Dreams who finished just a place in front of him at Newbury but is half the price here.
Shakem Up’arry is seen as a long-term prospect but still looks well capable of bagging a big handicap in this arena before going novice chasing next season.
Breathing operation to work the oracle for Glen Forsa
I can’t quite bring myself to recommend the Nicky Martin-trained Bear Ghylls or Joseph O’Brien’s Keskonrisk against the three market leaders in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, while I’m happy to duck the Glenfarclas Chase and Weatherbys Champion Bumper too.
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase looks a cracking race and Duc Des Genievres could be interesting under top weight, especially if Nube Negra or Put The Kettle on go some way to franking his early-season form in the Champion Chase.
Skelton’s duo Amoola Gold and Not That Fuisse are interesting too along with bottom weight Or Jaune De Somoza at a big price for Denis Foster, but GLEN FORSA looks worth a dart having become quite well treated.
His trainer Mick Channon has only had a couple of jumps winners sine last July (2-20) but has been ticking over with his Flat team and sent out a winner at Wolverhampton on Monday evening so stable form isn’t too concerning.
Glen Forsa, who unseated rider early on in the 2019 Arkle when just 9/2 on the back of a 19-length victory over Kalashnikov in the rearranged Kingmaker at Sandown, has been lightly raced since then but showed he was capable of high-class handicap form when third first time out last season behind Oldgrangewood at Newbury.
He had another 340 days off subsequently before resuming in the Haldon Gold Cup earlier this term, but looked in need of it beforehand and took a tired fall two-out. A couple more runs later and he’s dropped from a mark of 154 to 147 this season and he did show a fraction more of his old self when fourth at Wincanton on January 9.
Dropping back down in trip doesn’t look a bad move in a big-field race of this nature, one bound to be run at a strong gallop, and he resumes after a breathing operation which looks another positive pointer based on stable companion Hold The Note’s near miss at Newbury last month following the same procedure.
Published at 1700 GMT on 16/03/21
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