Matt Brocklebank has three tips ahead Friday's ITV action including the Emma Lavelle-trained Flemcara - check out the latest Value Bet preview.
Recommended bets, Friday December 4
1pt win Mister Murchan in 1.50 Sandown at 14/1
1pt win Westend Story in 2.40 Exeter at 9/1
1pt win Flemcara in 3.00 Sandown at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
A prominent ride on winter ground can be a dangerous combination around Sandown and with that in mind MISTER MURCHAN (14/1 General) rates a fascinating player at a big price in Friday’s My Oddsboost On Betfair Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.
Perhaps Nicky Henderson’s top weight Morning Vicar will set out to make all the running under Nico de Boinville, as he did so effectively at Newbury, and I’ve a lot of respect for him on the evidence of that display, for which he’s been raised 6lb. But he hasn’t always been an out-and-out front-runner and, aside from him, the rest of the field are generally ridden quite conservatively.
If de Boinville opts to take a lead on the keen-going Morning Vicar on what could end up being considerably softer ground, Mister Murchan looks the guaranteed pace-setter and he’s worth chancing despite racing from 3lb out of the handicap on this fairly sharp rise in grade.
The seven-year-old has been a bit of a slow burner but he hacked up in a point-to-point for Kevin O’Sullivan before joining current trainer Richard Rowe and, based on last month’s chasing debut at Fontwell, has evidently just been biding his time over the smaller obstacles.
He looked a completely fresh prospect faced with a fence, jumping really accurately and slickly on his merry way to a 12-length victory over race favourite Republican, who was conceding him plenty of weight but had some smart work to his name including a good sixth behind McFabulous in the EBF Final at Kempton in March.
The third home, Emma Lavelle’s Pemberley, isn’t a bad horse either and there were 20 lengths back to the rest so I’m inclined to take a positive view of the form in general, and a 9lb hike in the ratings to 113 looks thoroughly merited.
He’s obviously forced to run off 116 here with the minimum weight 10-3 but Niall Houlihan, who continues to impress and was in the saddle on Mister Murchan for the first time at Fontwell, takes off a very useful 7lb again.
If horse and rider can get into a similar rhythm as they did that day then he’ll be quickly over the railway fences from which point his proven stamina – he won over Plumpton’s extended three miles over hurdles – should come to the fore.
The weather forecast looks pretty nasty and the more rain the better for him as well.
The other Sandown race I’m drawn to is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, in which a few at the top of the market have questions to answer.
Kilconny Bridge waltzed home in a weak mares’ handicap at Chepstow and has gone up another 7lb for her troubles, while Storm Arising and Potters Hedger had a desperately hard race when first and second at Lingfield last month.
If they’re well over it then both must be feared, especially as they’re 1lb well in after the third horse, Robin Gold, came out and won at Ascot subsequently.
Espion looks hard work and Illegal Model’s Uttoxeter form is questionable, while those siding with Straight Swap or Farrants Way are more or less guessing as to quite how well treated they are now sent down the handicap route.
One horse we know can be fully effective off his current rating, and is perfectly at home in the conditions, is FLEMCARA (12/1 Hills, Ladbrokes, Coral) and he’s got to be of interest have slipped to a mark of 130 following his comeback effort at Newbury.
The horse typically takes a run or two to come to full fitness and that’s been a bit of a theme with most of the Lavelle horses this time around too. The trainer’s three winners in the past fortnight suggest she’s going to have a productive December and with Flemcara’s last two wins coming from marks of 130 and 133, he looks a great bet.
Stamina isn’t an issue for the eight-year-old and he’s got good course form too having run in the past two editions of the big stayers’ handicap here at the start of February. In 2018 he was mid-division as Topofthegame took top spot, while last year Flemcara was third to Lord Napier.
He was never put into the race really at Newbury last month and I’d expect far more from him now with Ben Jones, still able to claim 3lb, taking over from Aidan Coleman.
What is the best bet at Exeter?
Philip Hobbs is another trainer who had a relatively quiet autumn for his high standards but the more recent form has been encouraging for him too and WESTEND STORY (9/1 Paddy Power, Betfair) looks a potential player in Exeter's tote.co.uk Home Of The Placepot Handicap Chase.
Hobbs has plenty of runners at Exeter and this horse won a bumper here by 18 lengths before finishing fifth in Ballyandy's Champion Bumper at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival.
Things haven't been plain sailing for him since then and he's clearly been really hard to keep right but he's nine, rising 10, now and it's unlikely connections will have taken any chances in terms of fitness on his first public appearance for 318 days.
He only had three starts last season and failed to complete on the latter couple of occasions, but he was 11/8 favourite when unseating Richard Johnson at this track when last seen on January 21 and the assessor has given him a real chance in dropping him 2lb ahead of his return.
Four starts back - admittedly almost two years ago to the day - he was fourth behind Defi Du Seuil, Topofthegame and Black Op in one of the hottest novices' chases run around here in recent years and he'd be a bit of a good thing from a perch of 132 if resuming in that kind of form.
That's probably asking too much but at 9/1 there's enough juice in his price to roll the dice and hope that he finally puts together a clear round, which would surely be enough to see him at least go close in this sort of company.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 03/11/20
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