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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for Doncaster and Newbury
Ben Linfoot nailed a 20/1 winner last weekend and he has four Value Bet selections for this Saturday's racing at Doncaster and Newbury.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, March 2
1pt e.w. Whatthebutlersaw in 1.50 Doncaster at 20/1
1pt win Carole’s Destrier in 2.05 Newbury at 7/1
1pt win Valdez in 2.40 Newbury at 12/1
1pt win Dustin Des Mottes in 2.40 Newbury at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sam Twiston-Davies has managed to land the feature handicap on consecutive Saturdays the last two weeks, thanks to Al Dancer and Walt, and he might just bag the hat-trick at Newbury when he gets the leg up on DUSTIN DES MOTTES (14/1 General) in the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup (2.40) this weekend.
The in-form jockey has a tremendous record for this horse’s trainer, Dr Richard Newland, having ridden 111 winners for him at 27 per cent throughout his career, and he went close to winning on this horse, the last time he rode him, at Ascot in December.
Only a neck separated Dustin Des Mottes and the winner, Azzerti, that day, the Newland-trained horse not doing himself any favours by jumping to his left throughout. He did very well to get so close in the circumstances and the form looks good as the third, Gortroe Joe, has won subsequently at Ludlow.
Dustin Des Mottes races off a mark just 1lb higher on Saturday.
His form earlier in the season, at Newbury, stands up well, too. There was certainly no shame in failing to give weight to Arkle contender Knocknanuss, while he finished well ahead of Clondaw Castle who has won twice since and is now rated 144.
He’s easily forgiven his last run at Cheltenham, where he finished sixth of seven behind Aso, as he was taken out of his rhythm following an early mistake at the second fence under 5lb claimer Charlie Hammond.
With Twiston-Davies back on board, back at a flat track, he’s taken to resume his progress, especially with Thursday’s rain just edging conditions to the soft side of good. More rain would be even better and there are a few showers forecast on Saturday.
He’s worth backing at 16s and so is VALDEZ at 12/1 (General) in the same race.
Alan King’s 12-year-old is lightly-raced for his age following just 20 career starts and the lack of miles on the clock can help him be competitive in good handicaps in the twilight of his career.
Rated 153 at his best, he’s well-handicapped off 142 when everything drops right and the signs last time behind Hell’s Kitchen at Ascot were good in that regard.
Held-up in a race where very little got into things from off the pace, he was never in a position to challenge but ran on well in the straight to take fourth among a bunch of horses that have come out and franked the form subsequently.
The second, Janika, came out and was a close second at Cheltenham, the third, Movie Legend, has subsequently won at Wetherby and the fifth, Magic Saint, also bolstered the form when winning easily at Wincanton.
That’s encouraging and so is his Newbury form, a 24-length win in novice company arguably a career-best run and he didn’t shape badly behind Altior on his return from a three-and-a-half year absence in the 2018 Game Spirit, either.
That long time away from the track has seen him take a while to get to grips with the game again, but that last run was really encouraging and now looks the time to back him.
Earlier on at Newbury there’s a good race for the old boys as 12 go to post in the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase over 3m2f at 2.05.
The Last Samuri and Abolitionist head the weights and the betting in this, with both having solid claims, but if they can give 8lb and upwards to CAROLE’S DESTRIER on his favourite patch they will have run very well and Neil Mulholland’s charge is worth backing at 7/1 (General).
A staying-on runner-up in Native River’s Hennessy at this track in 2016 off a mark of 148, he dropped to a mark in the mid-130s at the start of this season and finally got his head back in front on his return to Newbury in December.
Rated 135 that day, he traded at 500/1 in-running on Betfair when he looked beat four from home, but he rallied gamely to get back up inside the final furlong as he showed his love for the Newbury run-in once again.
He’s been in good form since, too, running well in the Classic Chase at Warwick when fourth, finishing just behind subsequent Eider Chase winner Crosspark, while you can put a line through his latest effort at Haydock as he was badly hampered by the fall of Two Amigos.
Running off a mark just 2lb higher than when he won here in December, he’s of obvious interest and looks a bet to beat the two fancied horses receiving plenty of weight.
Finally, it’s Grimthorpe Chase day up at Doncaster and, while I didn’t want to take on the favourite, Rocky’s Treasure, in the feature, I do think there’s an each-way bet on the undercard in the shape of WHATTHEBUTLERSAW (20/1 General, 1/5 1,2,3) in the 888Sport Handicap Hurdle (1.50).
Dominic Ffrench Davis’ horse is very consistent, finishing in the first three on 10 of his 15 starts over hurdles, and he’s particularly reliable after a two to three month break.
He's won races after 72, 74 and 93 days off before, so his 66-day absence looks ideal, especially after his three quick runs from the end of October to December were probably a reason why he ran flat last time.
It was an uncharacteristic below-par run on Boxing Day, but he lost a shoe as well and it’s worth forgiving him that as he has a good chance on the pick of his other efforts, including his one-length second off 129 at Wincanton two starts ago.
That’s the mark he runs off on Saturday and I think his two-and-half-mile speed will be a potent weapon against some of these stayers, while he has untapped potential stepped up in trip to three miles for the first time.
His half-brother Phar Away Island won over three miles, while his dam is related to stayers as well, so this track and trip could suit him well on (good) conditions we know he likes.
He doesn’t deserve his outsider-of-the-field status and could outrun his odds in a big way.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +357.49pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 GMT on 01/03/19.
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