Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day two of the Craven meeting at Newmarket and he's predicting a fast and furious sprint handicap in the 1.50.
Recommended Bets: Craven Meeting, day two
1pt e.w. Don Armado in 1.50 Newmarket at 18/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The bet365 Craven Stakes takes centre stage on day two of the meeting named after this race and Godolphin horses dominate the betting.
Zakouski runs for Charlie Appleby on the back of a sole win at Kempton last November, while Royal Marine brings some top-class form to the table having won the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere from Broome - a horse that franked that form in style after his eight-length Ballysax win last weekend.
On the bare form there’s only one horse you can pick, but the betting could well be informative here and it looks a race to watch and to see if we can learn anything ahead of the Guineas.
The chat surrounding the Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes will concern Brando, a horse going for his third successive win in the Group Three contest.
He’s the one they all have to beat on official ratings, with John Gosden’s Dreamfield the one he has most to worry about given how lightly-raced the Wokingham second is. He remains a horse with plenty of potential.
Again, though, it’s the opening sprint handicap on ITV4 that looks the best race for a bet and Breath Of Air is going to be popular here as he easily beat Saturday’s Greenham winner Mohaather at Newbury last September.
He ran okay in Listed company after that and a mark of 93 with Ryan Moore booked will likely ensure his status as favourite right up until the off.
I’m not mad keen to take him on, but he is lacking the experience of plenty of these and one thing that does look guaranteed is a rip-roaring gallop from the off with plenty of prominent racers in there.
Jack’s Point, Chapelli, Oberyn Martell, Yousini, Naughty Rascal, Alfie Solomons, Top Breeze and Sheila’s Showcase have all led before and there has to be a possibility they go really hard here.
With that in mind I like the chances of DON ARMADO at 18/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4) as he’s a hold-up horse that loves a really strong gallop over six.
He progressed quickly last season once switching to nurseries and his best effort came in a 14-runner handicap at Goodwood where he was well on top at the line.
That came off a mark of 85 and he’s only 7lb higher on Wednesday, while he ran a fine race in the Sky Bet Nursery Handicap at York’s Ebor Festival off 91, where he was slightly outpaced before staying on for fourth.
He’s forgiven his Mill Reef fifth on soft ground after that, while the small-field conditions races he’s been running in on the all-weather recently haven’t played to his strengths.
Oisin Murphy reported that he lost his action last time at Lingfield, so we can draw a line through that run, and before that he ran on well at Newcastle to finish a close-up third.
A proper gallop in a bigger field for his switch back to turf looks an ideal scenario and he still looks fairly handicapped on the best of his nursery form and that February run at Gosforth Park.
The market has favoured the lightly-raced potential horses and that's understandable, but, given how this could be run, the selection looks to be slightly underestimated.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +333.69pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 16/04/19.
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