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Value Bet: Ben Linfoot racing preview and free tips for day five at Glorious Goodwood
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot tipped Golden Mile winner Beat Le Bon at 12/1 on Friday - don't miss his Saturday Value Bet selections including in the Stewards' Cup.
Recommended Bets: Glorious Goodwood, Day Five
1pt e.w. Blue De Vega in 1.50 Goodwood at 25/1
1pt win Charles Kingsley in 2.25 Goodwood at 8/1
1pt win Air Raid in 3.40 Goodwood at 25/1
1pt win Lake Volta in 3.40 Goodwood at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Mark Johnston has won most things at Glorious Goodwood, but he’s yet to win the Unibet Stewards’ Cup. However, that could all change on Saturday with his LAKE VOLTA (20/1 bet365, Coral, 18/1 General) fancied to win for the record-breaking Middleham handler.
Midsummer achievements are plentiful for Johnston, especially in this neck of the woods, but he’s surpassed even himself this week by netting an incredible 50 winners in a calendar month before becoming the most successful trainer in Glorious Goodwood’s history.
A win in one of the most prestigious sprint handicaps of the season at his favourite gaff would put the cherry on top and in Lake Volta he’s got a horse with a good chance of delivering just that.
The four-year-old has been busy this season and has held his form really well, winning twice, finishing second twice and running very well in big-field handicaps from Epsom to Hamilton and back to Ascot.
It’s remarkable, really, that he gets to race off just a 3lb higher mark than when he started the season and various pieces of evidence point to six furlongs on faster ground being his optimum conditions.
Exhibit one is his victory here on May 24. He made all that day, off just a 2lb lower mark, and won by two-and-a-quarter lengths with good horses like Tis Marvellous (Wokingham second, won at Ascot since) in behind.
Joe Fanning rode him that day and he did so again next time out, again over six furlongs, again on good to firm ground. It was at another downhill track, as well, Epsom, and he ran a cracker in defeat behind Watchable.
Fanning hasn’t ridden him since but he’s back on board on Saturday and Lake Volta has acquitted himself well without him, particularly over seven furlongs in the Bunbury Cup and then back over six in soft ground, which didn’t suit, at Hamilton.
Last week he led for a long way in the International Stakes over seven furlongs at Ascot before his stamina gave way, but it was a good effort with the Stewards’ Cup in mind.
He's clearly in really good nick and, just 2lb higher than his win here earlier in the season, he's fairly treated as well. His draw in stall one on the far side means he should have plenty of room to race within and at 20s he's the main bet in the race for me.
The other one I like at the prices is Lake Volta’s Hamilton foe AIR RAID who is also worth a second look at 25/1 (General).
Lake Volta gets a 6lb pull at the weights for a-length-and-a-quarter defeat, but the speed Air Raid showed in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup that day was impressive and it wasn’t his first win at the track.
It was his third victory in three consecutive starts at the venue and while that track would have a much stiffer finish than Goodwood, the downhill section at the start is very similar.
Air Raid has been scooting down that in style, showing bags of speed, and that will stand him in good stead on Saturday from a nice middle-to-far-side draw in 12.
If you take out his Newcastle run (he's never acted on the Tapeta track) he’s a horse coming into this on the back of a hat-trick on turf and for that reason alone it’s surprising he’s 25/1.
Orion's Bow almost completed the Scottish Stewards’ Cup-Stewards’ Cup double three years ago and he was a horse that perhaps enjoyed softer ground.
You might say the same thing about Air Raid, but that presumption is fully factored into his price and without any evidence, as he’s yet to race on a surface faster than good.
By Raven's Pass, just like Lake Volta, I'm happy to chance him and if he does take to it well he’s a big price to bag a landmark pot for the Jedd O'Keefe team.
🏇🥇 Value Bet tip Beat Le Bon (recommended at 12/1) wins the Unibet Golden Mile!
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) August 2, 2019
🙏A brave, brave ride from Pat Dobbs pays off for the Richard Hannon team.#GloriousGoodwood #QGF @Goodwood_Races pic.twitter.com/DugM4JPldh
In the consolation race I like Puds and last year’s winner Tommy G, but both have been well found in the market unlike BLUE DE VEGA (25/1 William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5, 20/1 Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7).
Robert Cowell’s horse is an infrequent winner, so he has to be an each-way bet, but I do think this quick, downhill, six furlongs will suit him absolutely perfectly.
He loves downhill tracks and he has a good record at Epsom, including a half-length running-on third in this year’s Investec Dash, while he was beaten a length by Puds in fourth here at Goodwood back on May 4.
Again, he stayed on well that day, he gets a 5lb pull at the weights with Puds on that form and that’s before the excellent Cieren Fallon takes off another 5lb.
Fallon rode him at Windsor last time, where he travelled well over six, and while his effort flattened out he wasn’t beaten far despite being quite exposed on the outside of the pack.
The hope is the nature of this track and race will see him travel into things nicely. From a good middle draw, he’s taken to get cover, track the pace and pounce late.
Finally, CHARLES KINGSLEY looks a bet at 8/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes) in the Qatar Summer Handicap at 2.25.
Mark Johnston has the favourite here in King’s Advice, but stablemate Charles Kingsley should arguably be sharing that mantle such is his progressive status at this trip.
Outpaced at Ripon two starts ago over 1m4f, he thrived over last Saturday’s trip of 1m6f at Newmarket when proving his stamina in some style, taking a lead from African Jazz before pouncing over a furlong from home.
With wins at Hamilton and Brighton on his dance card he should love this track and, looking at the potential tactics of the race, he might well slot in behind the front-running Proschema and get the perfect tow into the contest.
King's Advice has been on an incredible run, winning seven of his eight starts for the Johnston yard, but, up 7lb for his latest win, he’s got a tough task now off a mark of 108.
Off 100 there's still mileage in Charles Kingsley's rating, especially now he's racing over this trip, and he's well worth getting on side at around 8/1.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +373.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 02/08/19.