Ben Linfoot seeks out the value ahead of Saturday afternoon's racing with one fancied at a big price in the Diomed Stakes at Newbury.
Recommended Bets, Saturday June 13
1pt win Oriental Mystique in 3.00 Newbury at 11/2
1pt e.w. Chatez in 3.35 Newbury at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
If King Of Comedy behaves himself on Saturday he’ll probably win the MansionBet’s Beaten By A Head Diomed Stakes at Newbury (3.35) in a canter, but such a thing is not a given with this horse and there are grounds for taking him on.
He’s been reluctant to go down to the start on a few occasions in his career and his pre-race antics seem to have had a direct bearing on his performance on his last couple of starts, so he’s certainly one to treat with caution.
If he runs to his official rating of 118 he’ll win, but given his temperament I’m happy to take a chance on him fluffing his lines – especially with the forecast thundery showers against him as well, as all his best form is on faster ground.
Taking King Of Comedy out of calculations doesn’t help narrow down the field too much, as all bar Marie’s Diamond are going into this on the back of their elongated winter breaks.
It’s a complete guess up when it comes to fitness, but that can lead to unpredictable results and what could be more difficult to foresee than the second-lowest rated horse, and arguably the worst off at the weights, winning this?
That is one way to view CHATEZ, but at 20/1 (bet365, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3) he’s worth a small each-way bet given how this could pan out.
He’ll probably need the forecast rain to get into the ground and he’ll definitely need them to go hard up front, but while the weather is in the lap of the Gods the pace is in the hands of Joe Fanning on Marie’s Diamond and he should make this a good test, along with Century Dream and Tabarrak.
If these factors fall into place then Chatez becomes a player, as while he has a bit to find on the ratings he thrives at Newbury and you can be pretty sure he’ll be as fit as Alan King can possibly get him.
His record fresh is outstanding. He’s won after 180 days off at Epsom, after 51 days off in the Spring Mile at Doncaster and after 112 days off in the Spring Cup here at Newbury.
Significantly, he was also beaten half a length in second at Haydock after 947 days off, so his 413-day absence is not a concern. On top of this, King knows he doesn’t have too many shots with him, so I’d expect him to be fit and firing for this assignment, which might not be the case with all of his rivals.
Even so, he’ll need a career-best to win this Group Three, but the Newbury factor can help on that score. He won his maiden here, was a close second to Dukhan over 10 furlongs in a handicap off 96 and then won that aforementioned Spring Cup off 99 in a field of 26 last April.
Those last two efforts were on good to soft ground, so he could have his ideal conditions, too, and at a big price he’s worth a bet under the red-hot Hollie Doyle.
Earlier on at Newbury it’s a shame Domino Darling (bad scope) doesn’t go in the Listed British Stallion Studs EBF/MansionBet Abingdon Fillies’ Stakes but it remains a good race and David Simcock’s ORIENTAL MYSTIQUE looks the bet at 11/2 (General).
Cabaletta’s Yarmouth win was given a significant boost by Frankly Darling at Newcastle the other day, but that was on heavy ground and she looked to outstay a faster horse on that occasion as befitting her stout pedigree.
She looks short enough at 2/1 with that in mind and I’d much rather back Oriental Mystique at 11/2 as she looks just as promising and her own form has been working out well.
On debut she ran a cracking race in fourth in a hot Newmarket novice in which the Lingfield Derby Trial winner English King was seventh, while her subsequent Kempton win over a mile has been boosted by the second, Declared Interest, who won at Chelmsford on Tuesday, the third, Dubai Love, who won a Listed race at Meydan and the fifth, Majestic Noor, who won at Yarmouth on Wednesday.
Out of Simcock’s Group One winner Madame Chiang, this daughter of Kingman is bred both for middle-distances and to improve at three, while she won’t mind any softening of the ground judging by her own runs and the career of her dam.
It could be a good day for Simcock as he runs Carlos Felix in a handicap over a mile at Doncaster (3.55) and he looks potentially very well treated off 78. There aren’t enough bookies that have priced this up to tip him up but I’ll be backing him at 7/1 or bigger.
As for the handicaps on ITV4 there isn’t much to have a go at with some relatively small fields considering what we’ve been used to since resumption.
Exec Chef is of some interest in the mile handicap at Sandown at 3.15, as he’s dropped to a lenient mark and has fitness on his side at a track he likes, while Jason Watson is a good jockey booking, too.
However, he’s been backed in on Friday afternoon and the general 9/2 just looks on the wrong side of acceptable for a horse that doesn’t find the winners’ enclosure too regularly.
Posted at 1700 BST on 12/06/2020
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
