Ben Linfoot highlights a "potential lurker" in the Greatwood Hurdle as our man looks to back up Saturday's profitable preview at Cheltenham.
Recommended bets: Sunday November 18
With the ground riding ‘Good’ or thereabouts at Cheltenham it will surely be only a matter of time until Nicky Henderson comes to the November Meeting party.
It’s hard to believe he drew a blank on the first two days but nearly all his horses ran well in defeat and he could well land the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle for the first time on Sunday.
That fact surprised me as well considering all the good hurdlers he’s had pass through his hands over the years but he could well get his grip on the trophy this year with Verdana Blue heading his team.
She loves this sort of surface and is clearly thriving following her win in the Elite Hurdle last weekend where she accounted for If The Cap Fits and We Have A Dream.
Under a 5lb penalty she’s actually running off her correct mark, but there’s no doubt she could well improve again.
It is a quick turnaround, though, and she is zero from two at Cheltenham as well, so there are reasons to take her on at 4/1 and I’d rather back her stablemate CHARLI PARCS at 12/1 (General).
It’s not long since he was touted as the next big thing following an eight-length romp at Kempton on his British debut, but his Triumph Hurdle campaign faltered after he fell on his next start and it took him a while to recover from that.
Last season was frustrating for him, especially when the ground turned soft later in the campaign, but he showed the fire still burned within with a promising fourth at Ayr in April and he can kick on from that now he’s five turning six.
Crucially, the ground hasn’t turned yet and conditions should be ideal, while he’s a horse that could be worth catching first time up.
His best performance in his first season here was that Kempton win first time out, while his second in the Gerry Feilden on his reappearance last year was also a season’s best.
With another summer at Martinstown under his belt he could well improve this time around and I want him on side while he’s fresh and conditions are in his favour.
At the other end of the weights the one potential lurker looks to be Alan King’s DEYRANN DE CARJAC and at 12/1 (General) he’s worth backing as well.
Off a mark of 128 carrying just 10st 2lb I can’t resist him as he gave Pym a really good race at Chepstow last time where he looked a massive danger jumping the last.
Pym was too strong in the end, but he is a horse with greater reserves of stamina as he showed when second in a 2m5f Grade Two here on Friday and the selection did give him 6lb.
After just four hurdle starts Deyrann De Carjac might not be ready for the hustle and bustle of a big handicap, but that looks factored into his odds to me and with plenty of potential stamped all over his profile he could well be up to winning another Greatwood for last year’s winning trainer.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +343.49pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 GMT on 17/11/18.
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