Royal Ascot Tuesday tips: Best value bets and preview for June 15
Fresh off a weekend winner at York, Matt Brocklebank has two value selections for the opening day of Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot tips: Tuesday June 15
1pt win Palavecino in 5.35 Ascot at 28/1 (Hills, BetVictor)
1pt win Amtiyaz in 6.10 Ascot at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
With 35 races on the Royal Ascot programme these days it’s important to set a sustainable pace when it comes to punting at the meeting and only a couple of bets really appeal on day one.
AMTIYAZ is one of them in the concluding Copper Horse Handicap. He’s a well-bred, lightly-raced four-year-old representing John Gosden and Hollie Doyle so it’s surprising to see him at such a big price, especially when you dig a little deeper into his promising profile.
A son of Frankel, he was unraced at two and immediately started out over 10 furlongs on his belated racecourse debut last August so he’s clearly a late-maturing colt who has always shown an abundance of stamina.
After breaking through at the fourth time of asking in a Newcastle novice over a mile and a half, he was nicely going through the handicap ranks over the winter, winning twice more from marks of 82 and 89, before having a couple of months off and returning on All Weather Championships Finals day at Lingfield on Good Friday.
Sent off 9/2 third-favourite despite being the lowest rated in the field (had over 10lb to find with the two ahead of him in the market), it became a really messy race and it’s hard to believe he was seen in his best light given how the race developed into a dash for home from around three furlongs out.
Amtiyaz was also bumped about between Rainbow Dreamer and Australis on the final turn into the straight and he didn’t do too badly in the circumstances, since when the horse has been put away for a summer campaign.
It’s fairly well documented how comfortably some all-weather specialists can translate their form to the Ascot track so while he was a fairly disappointing fifth at Lingfield on his only previous turf start, that doesn’t concern me much at all especially given his pedigree (out of a Dalakhani mare who’s from the family of the great Goldikova). Slightly easier ground might have been preferred in an ideal scenario though I’d say that’s more than factored into his price.
Amtiyaz is entered in the Northumberland Plate later in the month and he clearly stays two miles strongly but, if anything, that looks an asset here given there are six or seven who like to lead or race prominently and I’m quite keen on his chances getting 8lb from the penalised favourite Saldier.
Who else appeals on day one?
Arthurian Fable is the other lurker in the same race having run so well in the King George V Stakes here last summer. That race, won by Hukum, has thrown up nine subsequent winners (winning 12 races between them) and Brian Meehan’s horse was a touch unfortunate in fifth as he was blocked in his run at a key time.
He shaped pretty well off this 14lb higher mark – having won at Sandown and finished second in the Melrose in the meantime - on his Newmarket comeback last month and Jim Crowley takes over from George Buckell in the saddle now.
In short, there’s a lot to like but people appeared to latch onto him quite early when the market first went live as he was 20/1 in places initially, and now no bigger than 14s. Instead, I’ll take a chance on Arthurian Fable’s stablemate PALAVECINO in the Wolferton Stakes.
He’s another with very good all-weather efforts to his credit, the neck second behind Bangkok in the Easter Classic not far off the best form on offer in this race (he’s third-highest rated of the unpenalised horses here), but the slightly more eyecatching aspect is that he’s never raced on ground faster than good.
The one run of his life on good going came at Chester last August when he won a 10-furlong handicap from very decent yardsticks Restorer, Data Protection and Sky Defender, and it could just be that he pulls out a touch more improvement on an even quicker surface this week.
That would be in keeping with his pedigree as he’s out of a Galileo mare and sired by Cacique, whose progeny include the likes of Dominant (John Moore, Hong Kong), Slumber (Chad Brown, USA) and Melting Dew (Sir Michael Stoute), who all relished quick ground.
Palavecino can have his own ideas and isn’t always the easiest of rides but a stiff mile and a quarter around Ascot promises to really suit the horse, who was far from disgraced behind Prince Of Wales’s contenders Armory (BHA mark 120) and Sangarius (114) in the Huxley Stakes last month on good to soft.
Martin Dwyer knows him very well and will presumably look to bounce out from stall 11 before trying to dictate terms, or at least sit very handily. At 28/1 the chances of the talented individual hanging tough in the straight appear to be slightly underestimated.
If there’s a bet against Willie Mullins’ Ascot Stakes hot-pot M C Muldoon then it could be fellow Irish raider Dalton Highway who has slid in under bottom weight and is one of just two rides for Colin Keane on day one of the meeting.
This is an even quirkier customer in truth and he’s just as likely to down tools when asked for an effort as he is pull out all the stops, but he’s certainly capable of mixing in top staying handicap company when on a going day, highlighted by his Curragh win over De Name Escapes Me, Lynwood Gold and Sharjah last June.
He’s not on a bad mark at all based on that effort and it’ll be interesting to see if the return to better ground, coupled with the return of a visor, perks him up. He’s not quite made it to the staking plan on this occasion given his frustrating unreliability and the early 25/1 drying up, but he wouldn’t be a shock winner with conditions to suit.
I can leave the rest of the card alone too with positive parting mentions for Highland Avenue in what looks a really competitive St James’s Palace Stakes, course specialist Sir Busker ‘without Palace Pier’ in the Queen Anne and Arecibo in the King’s Stand.
The latter has a mountain to climb with Battaash (and Oxted for that matter) on bare form but has looked better than ever as a six-year-old this time around and could get on famously with Jamie Spencer, who is made for the ride on this smooth-travelling, hold-up performer.
He'll be ridden to nick a piece of the pie late on and if you’re delving into the place markets then he must be high on the shortlist, but his win claims aren’t quite strong enough for me to take the each-way plunge at current prices (33/1 generally).
Published at 1300 BST on 14/06/21
