Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for British Champions Day at Ascot

Recommended bets, Saturday October 17

1pt win Broome in 1.20 Ascot at 16/1

1pt win Cape Byron in 1.55 Ascot at 14/1

0.5pts e.w. Royal Dornoch in 3.05 Ascot at 80/1

1pt win Njord in 4.15 Ascot at 10/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

British Champions Day was designed for horses like Palace Pier, the unbeaten son of Kingman who bids to give trainer John Gosden a fifth career win in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

Three of his previous winners were three-year-olds and the master trainer has seemingly had this date in the diary for a long time for his latest star colt. The tenacity and ability he displayed in winning the St James’s Palace on just his fourth start at the Royal meeting immediately put him at the top table, and he’s since improved a fraction on that form by beating Alpine Star in the Prix Jacques le Marois.

His efforts this season couldn’t have worked out better either – he had the subsequent Moulin winner and Arc third Persian King back in third at Deauville, for instance – and he’s obviously already proven on bad ground, as well as at this idiosyncratic track.

He can go and win at 8/11, and he probably will, but if there is any rustiness at all after his 62-day layoff then it’s clearly a race that could throw up a massive shock.

Century Dream and Circus Maximus have put in performances this year that suggest they could take advantage should the favourite fail to fire – and they bring their A-game of course, which would be more of a worry – but they help form a pretty big group of prominent racers in the line-up that could ultimately tee this up beautifully for Dettori on Palace Pier.

With Veracious, Lancaster House, Nazeef and Sir Busker four more who like to get on with things, or at least sit quite handy in their races, there is scope for one of the more overlooked, hold-up horses running through late for a piece of the action too.

Two years ago Aidan O’Brien’s I Can Fly almost pulled off a similar move when second to Gosden’s last QEII winner, Roaring Lion, and it’s not hard to envisage Colin Keane riding outsider of the pack ROYAL DORNOCH ‘cold’ at the back of the field.

Royal Dornoch has no real right to win this, but he’ll definitely get a good gallop to chase and Keane is arguably one of the best in the world at executing such waiting tactics.

The horse has two ways of running, admittedly, and he couldn’t lay a glove on the principals in the 2000 Guineas or the St James’s Palace, but returned from a break looking a completely different horse – insert your own punchlines - when getting up late in the Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown, before another solid run when a staying-on fourth on drying ground in the Boomerang Stakes over Irish Champions Weekend.

Those two efforts suggested at even better to come into the autumn, something he delivered last year when edging out Kameko to win the Royal Lodge on his final start at two.

A winner on yielding ground in the past, he flopped in atrocious conditions in France last year but as a son of Gleneagles I’ve no major concerns over Saturday’s conditions.

Progeny of his sire generally love the mud (10-46 at 21% strike-rate on soft or heavy) as the likes of Royal Dornoch’s stablemates Royal Lytham and San Pedro have helped to indicate.

There’s a spot of 33/1 kicking about in the ‘without the favourite’ market, but whichever way you wish to play it, Royal Dornoch is the glaring value in the race from tactical perspective alone and I fractionally prefer the 80/1 each-way.

Keane could already be riding on a high after he partners BROOME in the QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup.

Search For A Song got the nod in my antepost piece on the meeting but that was mainly in the view that Stradivarius might not turn up following the Arc. Not only is he back for another crack, but he’s due to race on as a seven-year-old too which is pretty remarkable and can only be applauded. He’ll have his army of backers once again but has been beaten a couple of times in this race before.

Original fancy Search For A Song is no banker to handle the soft ground and it’s no surprise to see the O’Brien trio of Sovereign, Dawn Patrol and Broome all proving popular behind her in the betting.

Not one of them could be described as a prolific winner but Broome has form to at least match the other two having slammed Sovereign on soft ground in the Ballysax Stakes last year. He followed up in the Derrinstown and was only beaten half a length in the Derby before picking up an injury in the Irish version at the Curragh.

Seen only once so far this season, the son of Australia was a running-on fourth in the Coronation Cup where he looked every inch a stayer in the making and wasn't too far behind Stradivarius who also looked a bit short of peak fitness. He’s clearly got untapped potential stepping up to this trip for the first time and is another expected to be given a cool Keane ride.

Quite what’s in the locker when the buttons are pushed after another 134-day absence is not yet known, but at the price I’m happy to pay to find out as he’s just the sort of colt with sufficient back-class his yard likes to target at this race.

The QIPCO Champion Stakes is befitting of its title in spite of no Enable, Love or Ghaiyyath, but it’s not a wildly appealing betting heat. The top of the market looks spot on and while a few winners for Dettori earlier on the card will inevitably lead to Mishriff tightening up further still, there’s hardly much juice in his current price to be making this column.

Pyledriver has done us a favour this season and is not out of place in this field by any means. Not only did he fail to get the St Leger trip but he also still looked a bit green under pressure so that can be viewed both ways. He’ll either be too immature to mix it with Magical and the rest, or he has bundles of scope to keep improving now dropped back in distance.

On balance, the safest option is to look elsewhere as it would feel a slightly forced selection despite the general 16/1 looking perfectly fair about Willie Muir’s colt.

Joseph O’Brien and Tom Marquand took the Leger with Galileo Chrome and they team up in the Fillies & Mares with notable raider Thundering Nights, who also featured in the Antepost Angle published last month.

She was 16s then and is creeping into single-figure prices so there’s no great urge to double down.

Mehdaayih is the other one who looks potentially overpriced as while she’s a quirky so-and-so, she’s also an extremely talented filly on her best behaviour and wasn’t completely disgraced in last year’s Champion Stakes.

She handles the ground and might be a bit happier back up over a mile and a half these days, but she’s not very trustworthy and is getting towards the right price now around 10/1.

CAPE BYRON is a better bet in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes.

The subsequent year off the track tells you all you need to know about his effort in this race last year – he wasn’t anywhere near his best and it’s a throw-out in terms of valuable pieces of form.

He’d beaten the eventual winner of this event, Donjuan Triumphant, on his previous start in the Bengough Stakes which was the son of Shamardal’s fourth course win at Ascot.

They also include last year’s Wokingham when defying a mark of 107 as the seriously well-punted 7/2 favourite, so I’ve little doubt we’re dealing with a horse of Group 1 calibre.

Trainer Roger Varian would no doubt have loved to prep him in the Bengough again – he was declared to run – but the meeting was abandoned. Coming completely fresh shouldn’t necessarily put anyone off, though, as he won first time out here in September 2017 and landed the Victoria Cup on seasonal debut last spring.

He goes on any ground and the 14/1 looks good business with hot favourite Dream Of Dreams no world-beater to be running scared of.

In the Balmoral Handicap NJORD is 7lb better off with Keats for their recent meeting in a Listed race at Listowel and Jessica Harrington’s four-year-old is the one to be on following an antepost plunge on the latter.

Njord improved massively for Sheila Lavery at the back end of last season and has continued on an upward curve this term since moving to Jessica Harrington’s after making 54,000 euros at the Goffs horses-in-training autumn sale.

His sole win this year came at the Curragh over 10 furlongs but he’s been really unlucky not to add to that tally, twice narrowly missing out during Galway week, before another fine run in defeat when fifth on heavy ground in the Irish Cambridgeshire back at the Curragh.

Listowel represented a slight backward step but he found himself a little further back than ideal and the race was over when he finally hit top gear.

If he behaves at the start and gets away vaguely on terms, he should be coming home strongly for Marquand, who went close to giving the same stable a big winner on these shores when second on One Voice in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

Posted at 1630 BST on 16/10/20

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More Champions Day content...

• Value Bet: Champions Day tips
• Simon Holt's Champions Day tips
• Racing Podcast: Champions Day preview
• Ben Linfoot: Champions Day key questions
• Oisin Murphy: Champions Dream
• Catching Pigeons: Ascot fancies
• Timeform preview: Magical effort
• Queen Elizabeth Stakes II preview
• Long Distance Cup preview
• Champions Sprint preview
• Fillies & Mares preview
• Balmoral Handicap preview
• Tom Marquand: My Champions Day rides
• Alex Hammond Blog: Champion spirit

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