Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on trials day at Cheltenham and in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on an action-packed Saturday.
Recommended Bets: January 26
2pts win Enola Gay in 1.15 Cheltenham at 11/2
1pt win Federici in 3.15 Doncaster at 12/1
1pt e.w Monbeg River in 3.15 Doncaster at 25/1
1pt win West Approach in 3.35 Cheltenham at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Venetia Williams has tremendous history in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (1.15).
She’s won it three times, had four seconds and a couple of thirds in the last 15 years, so to say she’s adept at identifying the right sort of horse for this race would be an understatement.
This year she relies on ENOLA GAY and at 11/2 (General) he looks the best bet on a cracking day’s action at Cheltenham.
The six-year-old looks a bit unlucky not to have opened his account over fences yet, following four seconds from five starts.
However, the step back up in trip to 2m4f looked to unlock a bit more improvement in him at Wincanton last time and he pulled 16 lengths clear of the third – after being hampered two out - suggesting he’s well-handicapped over fences at this distance now he’s got plenty of experience under his belt.
Raised just 2lb for that run, he gets into this race off bottom weight and that could well help him further enhance his trainer’s fabulous record in the event.
Though the race is usually run on softer ground, Enola Gay has proven this season he has no problem with better conditions, so everything is set fair for a massive run.
He's been backed from 8/1 on Friday afternoon, but could easily go off favourite so I'll bite the bullet and still back him at 11/2.
The race has been a good pointer to the Festival handicaps in recent years, including 12 months ago when Mister Whitaker won in January and March, and there could be several shake-ups in the ante-post markets following a host of interesting trials on the card.
Of the graded races the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle appeals most from a betting point of view, as it involves a plethora of horses with something to prove, whether that be form, trip, class for this level or ability to act on the track.
Favourite Paisley Park has the latter question to answer, as he was stuffed out of sight in the Albert Bartlett on his only trip to the venue, while Midnight Shadow has to prove he stays this far and Black Op needs to bounce back after a sticky start to his chasing career.
Those three head the market and I don’t mind taking all of them on.
The one that’s overpriced against them is WEST APPROACH at 14/1 (General), as he gets weight from the aforementioned trio and looked like he might have plenty more to offer in this sphere following an excellent second in the Long Walk at Ascot last time.
He travelled really strongly that day and wasn’t beaten far by Paisley Park, who made his challenge away from him, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Colin Tizzard’s charge reversed that form on 6lb better terms.
Unlike Emma Lavelle’s horse, he’s also proven himself at this track and, indeed, in this very race, after finishing a close-up third in the 2017 renewal when he was still a novice.
He’s hardly run over hurdles since then, but he looked much happier over the smaller obstacles last time than he has over fences, and given he’s over three times the price of Paisley Park he’s worth a bet.
Finally, it’s the Sky Bet Chase up at Doncaster and Dingo Dollars heads the market there on the back of his third place in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
That form is working out well, but whether he has the pace for three miles around Doncaster is something that’s on my mind and I’m happy to take him on, even though Alan King has a fine record in the race.
O O Seven, Warriors Tale and Go Conquer have all gone up in the weights recently, so the one I’m drawn to is Donald McCain’s FEDERICI at 12/1 (General).
Fifth in the race last year in first-time blinkers when 3lb out of the weights, he traded at 5/2 in-running (having been sent off 25/1) when hitting the front deep into the race and he was only overhauled late on in a brilliant finish.
That was on soft ground, so he could conceivably improve on that run on better conditions on Saturday, as he’s perfectly at home on faster ground and this time he races from the handicap proper.
He ran a good race in the Becher on his only previous start this season, so he comes here pretty fresh and McCain reaches for the blinkers again having replaced them with cheekpieces on his last two starts.
A big run is expected from the bottom of the weights and the same sentiment applies to MONBEG RIVER who simply looks underestimated by the market at 25/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4, 25s General - different place terms).
He’s a prominent racer and usually a superb jumper, a combination that could help him go a long way in this, even if he does have his stamina to prove.
That’s partly why he’s a big price, but he has had only one go at the trip when third at Aintree and there’s plenty of hope he will get the three miles being by Indian River, a sire that often imparts stamina onto his progeny (e.g Native River, Madison Du Berlais, Red Infantry and Step Back).
His stablemate and half-sister, Pretty Miss Mahler, has won over three miles a couple of times as well, and he did hose up in a handicap on his only previous start at Doncaster, off just a 5lb lower mark, when winning by 16 lengths over 2m3f in the December of 2017.
An incident behind him at the last helped exaggerate his superiority that day, but it remains clear evidence that he likes the track and he shaped nicely at Ayr on his seasonal reappearance in November when second to Forest des Aigles.
Only out of the frame on five of his 17 starts over fences, he’ll love the ground as well and is worth a bet each-way at anything 20/1 and above.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +349.49pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 GMT on 25/01/19.
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