Matt Brocklebank tipped a 14/1 winner on Sunday and returns to preview the opening day of the Welcome to Yorkshire Ebor Festival at York.
Recommended bets, Wednesday August 19
1pt win Came From the Dark in 1.45 York at 20/1
1pt win Pyledriver in 2.45 York at 11/1
1pt win Blue Laureate in 3.45 York at 28/1
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The Ebor Festival won’t be the same without its usual heaving crowd but York’s principal meeting begins in typical fashion with the hugely competitive Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap over the extended five furlongs.
A low stall may prove beneficial if there’s lots of rain around but it can be costly to put too much emphasis on the draw at York, especially when there’s a fair spread of pace which looks to be the case here.
Justanotherbottle is in box one and Jabbarockie towards the stands side in 20, while Leodis Dream (six), Acclaim The Nation (nine) and Copper Knight (15) all, in theory, offer guaranteed speed right across the track.
So I’m not willing to narrow the field down at all based on the draw, but there are three that stand out with a bit of potential to improve past their current ratings.
Richard Fahey’s well-regarded three-year-old Istanbul is the obvious starting point – receiving 2lb weight-for-age from the older horses – and he looks to be coming to the boil quite nicely this year after a pleasing run over the stiff five furlongs at Hamilton last time.
Another 1lb ease in the ratings may prove lenient but he does lack experience in races of this nature which must stand against him.
Marcus Tregoning is enjoying a real renaissance year and his Mubaalegh could be able to win a nice race or two for the trainer having switched from John Hammond in France.
He went to Germany for a Listed race this time last year and performed with credit in second, while his recent stable debut at Ascot smacked of a horse likely to improve for the run. The son of Dark Angel was fractionally short of running room at a key point, though wasn’t unlucky to end up well held in the end.
He’s one to monitor closely going forward but might need more of a test of stamina than this raw test of speed and preference is for the Ed Walker-trained CAME FROM THE DARK at 20/1 (General).
Drawn in four under Ryan Moore (3-11 for the yard overall), he hasn’t raced for 319 days but that really shouldn’t put anyone off these days. I’d be amazed if fitness was an issue given the Walker horses have been in good form since resumption, including wins for progressive sprint handicapper Mountain Peak.
The grey Came From The Dark had a really busy time of things at three, winning twice at Haydock on heavy and soft ground, while he finished strongly to be beaten a neck by Pendleton at Ascot on his most recent start in October.
He returns off 3lb higher now but should be open to more improvement over the minimum trip having only really found his niche towards the end of 2019 after running over longer distances (six and seven furlongs) for much of the summer.
First time out was a good time to catch him last season and the booking of Moore should be considered a statement of intent. Providing the proven pace-setters drawn low get away on terms, they should give the selection a lovely tow into things and it’s not hard to see him staying on better than anything.
PYLEDRIVER looks the one to be on the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur at 11/1 (William Hill).
He’d probably be half the price had he not gone to the Derby and it could pay to throw that effort out in terms of reliable form when this horse is concerned.
William Muir’s charge has loads of size and scope about him and no doubt struggled to cope with the tricky test presented by the course at Epsom. He was a bit keen and got barged around early on which lit him up even more, from which point it was effectively game over.
Taking a strict reading of his Royal Ascot victory, when Mogul finished the best part of five lengths back in fourth, is clearly a mistake as Aidan O’Brien’s horse has improved a fair amount since, but there’s no reason Pyledriver can’t quickly get back on an upward curve and he’ll definitely be better suited by the track at York.
He’s got a 3lb penalty for his King Edward VII romp but has clearly achieved a lot more than Darain and Roberto Escobarr, who are both shorter in the market. He represents great value all things considered.
The Tattersalls Acomb Stakes doesn’t really float the boat from a punting point of view and nor, sadly, does the day’s Group One feature – the Juddmonte International Stakes.
There will come a day this season when Ghaiyyath doesn’t get his way out in front and either has to go a fraction quicker than he wants, or has to sit and suffer behind horses, but I’m not convinced either scenario is going to play out here.
It’s a no bet race, but the two-mile Sky Bet Handicap certainly isn’t, with Paul Hanagan fancied to enjoy a dream return to the Knavesmire.
The former champion jockey recently stated his fitness has never been so sharp ahead of a comeback from the injury he picked up at Newcastle in February, and that will need to be the case if he’s to haul BLUE LAUREATE (28/1 bet365, Hills) home in front.
Ian Williams’ five-year-old can be a quirky customer at the best of times and tends to need a lot of stoking up, but has shown he’s capable of strong staying form at this kind of level, including when beating Nuits St Georges (won twice since) at Ffos Las last September.
He’s obviously being overlooked here due to the fact that he’s not added to that win in five subsequent starts and remains 7lb higher in the weights, but a head second to Moon King (Rochester House and Just Hubert behind) at Haydock first time out this year shows he’s still competitively treated when on song.
Two of his last three starts have been over two and a half miles which possibly isn’t ideal but he put in another solid effort when fourth, beaten under two lengths, in the Marsh Cup at Newbury in between those runs.
He was right behind True Destiny and Rajinsky there (again of Just Hubert again) and looks a wild price based on that effort, especially with a change of headgear another potentially positive angle.
Williams switches from a visor to first-time blinkers, something which immediately worked the oracle when the trainer initially turned to cheekpieces at Ffos Las.
The horse clearly just needs something to keep him interested so the change in the saddle probably isn’t a bad thing either, and at the prices he’s definitely one to be interested in.
Posted at 1430 BST on 18/08/20
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