Racing betting tips: Saturday May 8
1pt win Poet’s Lady in 1.55 Ascot at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Laafy in 2.30 Ascot at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Any News in 3.10 Haydock at 20/1 (Hills, bet365)
1pt e.w. Jumaira Bay in 3.40 Ascot at 14/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Assessing proven course form to try and help identify the winner of Saturday’s tote+ Victoria Cup makes an awful lot of sense on the face of it but, at the same time, if it’s your principal driving force behind decision-making when betting at Ascot, you can rest assured that you will not be alone.
That’s no doubt one of the reasons course scorers Chiefofchiefs, Escobar, River Nymph, Motakhayyel and Raising Sand have all proved relatively popular in the betting market at certain points throughout the week.
Walhaan, the mother of all eyecatchers behind River Nymph here last July, and Sir Mark Prescott’s Sunset Breeze, chinned by classy filly Double Or Bubble (runs again on Saturday - Lingfield 3.25) over course and distance in September, can be added to a fairly lengthy shortlist of horses who we already know act well on this idiosyncratic straight track.
Yet the very nature of this column – and the joy of it – is that one is encouraged to explore alternative, less well-trodden paths, the ultimate reward being a juicy-priced winner that catches the crowd cold.
Well, you can’t have everything and JUMAIRA BAY isn’t a wild price by any means but his chances do appear to have been underestimated slightly, given the potential for improvement he could make this year.
Circling back to the initial point, here is a horse having his first taste of action at Ascot and one I expect will positively relish the whole experience. For starters, he’s a son of Siyouni, who has sired the winner of the Jersey Stakes (Le Brivido) and Coronation Stakes (Ervedya), plus a Diamond Jubilee runner-up (City Light – anyone else still think he won that memorable photo-finish with Merchant Navy?).
Siyouni’s progeny overall boast ‘just’ a 3-34 strike-rate when it comes to racing at Ascot, but if you focus on the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) – the metric based on a horse's finishing position in relation to field size - it reads a very healthy 63.73%.
Secondly, Jumaira Bay is a really strong traveller who has shown some of his best form in big fields, and he also stays further than the bare seven furlongs which can be particularly important here when there's ease underfoot.
There are two more significant points to make when it comes to the four-year-old’s prospects of taking his 2020 form to new heights – the first of which is the winter gelding operation. It clearly doesn’t always spark significant amounts of improvement but his trainer Roger Varian has a very tidy 37-174 hit-rate with his horses having their first run after being gelded (65.47% PRB), and if you boil that down to Ascot form only, you get three winners – namely King Bolete, Appeared and Mountain Angel – from just the five qualifiers.
Finally, Varian has removed the headgear, Jumaira Bay having been tried in cheekpieces at Doncaster on September 10 and then blinkers for his final two starts of last season at Kempton and Newbury. The trainer’s record when running horses without headgear having worn blinkers on their previous start is a rather encouraging 6-25 (24%).
As for the horse’s form chance from his current mark of 89, there’s a not-unreasonable case for him looking one of the best handicapped runners in the entire field, based on his one-length second to Nugget (now rated 101) at Doncaster in June, and short-head second to Brunch (also now up to 101) at York in July.
Jumaira Bay was getting just 2lb and 1lb respectively from each of those highly progressive rivals at the time, and the booking of star (3lb) claiming jockey Ray Dawson – who has steered home six winners in the past fortnight – seals the deal for me, with the strong chance of further rain of no great concern for this soft-ground Chepstow maiden winner.
Stall 11 could be the one major stumbling block, especially if Luke Morris attempts to dart up the stands’ rail on Sunset Breeze as expected from gate 29, but there’s pace right across the track and often you’ve simply got to swallow your medicine in races of this nature. Overall, there’s far too much going for Jumaira Bay to let the draw put anyone off.
With the wet weather firmly in mind, I’m far from convinced many of them will really enjoy the conditions in the tote+ Exclusively At tote.co.uk British EBF Fillies’ Handicap that kicks off the ITV4 action.
William Haggas’ Conservatoire is an obvious exception having done her winning on heavy at Goodwood and Doncaster last October, but at a bigger price POET’S LADY appeals as the type with more to offer when the mud is flying, having made her breakthrough on Haydock heavy last summer.
She’s been dropped 2lb in the weights for her two starts so far this spring but has had excuses – racing too keenly when sent off favourite on the opening day of the season at Doncaster and appearing not to handle the quick ground when fifth behind the reopposing Lights On at Nottingham.
She’s 9lb better off with Sir Michael Stoute’s filly this weekend and I also like the switch to Ascot for her too, with her sire Farhh’s progeny 3-12 at the track to date.
The final Ascot selection is Sir Michael Stoute’s LAAFY in the Listed tote+ Pays More At tote.co.uk Buckhounds Stakes.
It’s very hard to argue Deja and the unexposed Without A Fight shouldn’t be topping the betting but this race might just turn into a proper survival of the fittest in the conditions, with a decent pace forecast as well.
The giant Laafy is built for such a gruelling examination and he’s very effective when on song, typified by his course and distance handicap success when lumping 10st to victory in September.
His form tailed off slightly in the autumn and he looked badly in need of the run in last month’s Further Flight at Nottingham, but I suspect that was a fairly hot renewal of the race (won by Sir Ron Priestley) and he was unhappy on the good to firm going regardless.
With that outing behind him, Stoute going great guns and Richard Kingscote (9-26 for the yard so far this year) keeping the ride, I wouldn’t be a layer at 7s so will happily back him at the general 10/1.
The closest I came to a bet at Lingfield was all-weather course winner Ocean Road, who might pay a nice compliment to her October Nottingham conqueror Noon Star in the Oaks Trial.
Adayar looks something bordering a winner without a penalty in the Derby Trial following his unlucky Sandown second, so it’s onto Haydock where I can’t resist a bet in the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle.
The early 10/1 about Irish challenger Shanroe was mopped up pretty swiftly, unsurprisingly, but he’s not the only one with an interesting profile and proven ability to handle what will be really testing conditions in the north west too.
It generally pays to take note when horses switch from Grade One level to make their handicap debut and it’s surprising to see ANY NEWS as big as 20/1, despite the fact he’s failed to finish on his two outings since the turn of the year.
They’ve come in the Grade Two novice event at Kelso won by one of Britain’s brightest jumps prospects, My Drogo – where he unseated when held - and the Grade One at Aintree won by Belfast Banter – in which he was pulled-up before three out.
The official handicapper has left Neil Mulholland’s horse on a mark of 143 despite the pair of no-shows and I’d be inclined to agree that he shouldn’t be judged too harshly (or at all) on the bare form, especially as he’d been shaping up so well in the autumn.
Lowering the horse’s sights for the Swinton looks a great move by connections, who should get a much clearer view of his potential with next year in mind.
His dam is from the family of Trabolgan so fences and a more thorough test of stamina might suit him ideally further down the line, but he showed he had gears at Cheltenham, won his maiden easily on soft ground at Bangor in November, and is totally unexposed at this sort of level.
He looks an all-or-nothing sort of horse here so I'll resist the extra places on offer and risk a small win-only bet.
Published at 1600 BST on 07/05/21
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