Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day two of the Ebor Festival at York

Recommended bets, Thursday August 20

1pt e.w. Out The Hat in 2.15 York at 20/1

1pt win Walhaan in 2.45 York at 20/1

1pt win Albaflora in 3.45 York at 8/1

1pt win Rhoscolyn in 4.20 York at 9/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

OUT THE HAT (20/1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) could be up to giving Middleham trainer Jedd O’Keeffe a day to remember with a massive run in the Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes at York.

The likes of Wootton Bassett, Tasleet and Mums Tipple last year have won this for favourite-backers in the last decade and it looks like we’re set for another short-priced proposition in Devious Company this time around.

There is clearly a huge amount to recommend him; he’s acquitted himself well in Group Two races at Newmarket and Goodwood since winning his first couple of outings at Haydock and he drops down in class without a penalty having not yet scored in class two company or above.

Richard Hannon's filly Happy Romance won’t be too far off him at the head of the betting despite carrying a 5lb penalty for her runaway success in the Weatherbys Super Sprint, and her trainer is already talking about her in glowing terms with a possible Classic campaign in mind next term.

They aren’t easily opposed but do make the market for just about everything else in the line-up and two juveniles that have featured in this column before came close to getting another chance.

Tinochio was the Super Sprint selection on the back of some strong northern form in June and he ran a fine race in fourth from what turned out to be a near-impossible draw in stall one at Newbury.

He’s been quite well found here too, though, whereas Talbot is quite tempting having blown the start when put up for the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. That came on the back of another fairly luckless run in the Super Sprint but he’s just steadily starting to run out of excuses and preference is for the totally unexposed Out The Hat.

He has a mountain to climb on the official figures but a big-priced, left-field winner isn’t totally unheard of here (2018 scorer Red Balloons was 33/1) and Out The Hat simply hasn’t yet had the exposure to earn anything like a rating of 107 to match that of Devious Company.

What he has done, however, is show a huge amount of potential and I loved just how much improvement he made between his first and second public appearances. He was close to clueless first time out, soon all but detached after completely blowing the start at Hamilton on July 16 before winning well at the same venue stepped up to six furlongs a little over a fortnight later.

The form is a world away from Group level but the runner-up, the 13/8 favourite Ocean Star, gives us some context as she ran well behind The Lir Jet and Time Scale earlier in the year and has since bolted up by 11 lengths in a small auction maiden at Chepstow.

Out The Hat powered away from her on bad ground in Scotland and, although he had the stands’ side rail to help, was good value for his two and a half-length win.

The big factor stepping up in class here is that the sizeable son of Helmet looks to have his conditions, whereas the big two in the betting have never raced on anything worse than good.

Out The Hat is drawn right amongst them in stall six (Devious Company three, Happy Romance two and Tinochio five) so shouldn’t have any excuses on that score either and it’s easy to see him performing well above what is clearly being expected.

An each-way bet at anything 16/1 or bigger makes plenty of appeal and obviously more so if you’re able to get five places.

The Clipper Logistics Handicap is a fantastic betting heat and has been won by horses with SPs of 20/1 or bigger four times in the last decade.

Complete outsider Chatez is getting long in the tooth but could be quite dangerous having started his campaign in the Group Three Diomed Stakes at Newbury and been dropped 9lb for just three runs this term, but WALHAAN (20/1 BoyleSports, Coral) looks more capable of bustling up the likes of Sir Busker, Prompting and Top Rank, the latter having been really popular ever since betting opened on the race.

Ian Williams picked up Walhaan from France for a mere £35,000 in January from Jean-Claude Rouget’s yard and it looks a shrewd move based on his latest effort.

He arrived with a British rating of 97 after running quite well in a couple of Listed events last season, including when 6/4 favourite on one occasion, and suddenly showed sparks of what may be to come in Britain when second at 100/1 at Ascot last month.

The stewards enquired into that running and were eventually satisfied after interviewing both Williams and rider Martin Harley, but there’s no escaping it was a massively eyecatching effort.

The Newbury winner, River Nymph, has since won by two and a half lengths off 6lb higher at Newbury so a subsequent 2lb rise for Walhaan looks negligible and the return to a longer trip here (debut for the yard was in the Royal Hunt Cup), coupled with the ease in the ground, are both definitely positives.

Ben Curtis comes in her for the ride too and he has a good strike-rate for the stable (11-56 at 20%) so everything points to a big run.

Loyal Frankly Darling fans are at least getting a much bigger price in her rematch with Love in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks and John Gosden’s filly should be more comfortable on the flatter track here. That’s also likely to be the case with Love, though, and I was half-hoping the Gosden team may look to take on her with Star Catcher instead.

Sadly, that’s not the case but there’s a good bet to be had in the British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes, a race completely dominated by three-year-olds in recent seasons.

It’s 10 years since an older horse took this above-average Listed contest so there should be value on offer with four-year-olds Sea Of Faith and Vivionn to the fore in the market.

Gold Wand looks bound to be popular and in theory Roger Varian’s filly will love a return to this mile and a half trip despite finding the Investec Oaks too much, too soon in July.

But I’m desperate to oppose her - a subsequent runner-up at York since - given she still looks to be racing too keenly in the early stages, and two stand out in opposition.

Lady G must be one of the best middle-distance maiden fillies around and was only really clicking into top gear when getting collared close home by Cabaletta at Newbury, the winner having since boosted the form with a perfectly respectable second to Enbihaar in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood.

She’s one of three for William Haggas who also has recent course winner Award Scheme along with the aforementioned Sea Of Faith, and the trainer was successful in this race in 2013 and 2014.

Ralph Beckett has never won it which is a little surprising given his modus operandi but it’s his ALBAFLORA (General) who looks the one to be on at the prices this year.

She’s from an excellent family being a half-sister to several Pattern-race winners including Alyssa and Aloe Vera, both of whom were trained by Beckett, and she’s wasted little time in showing what she’s about this season.

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Rossa Ryan – back in the saddle here – got a fine tune out of her when winning well from a prominent position in a Haydock maiden on debut and she stepped up massively when second to Rose Of Kildare in the Group Three Musidora.

There was absolutely no disgrace in failing to cope with the vastly experienced, front-running winner that day and she was absolutely motoring home after initially hitting a bit of a flat spot.

She’ll love the move up to this distance on that evidence and the overnight rain will have come as welcome news for connections as her pedigree suggests she’ll cope extremely well.

Beckett could be on the mark again in the last with Dancing Vega a big player in the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap but the one I’m backing after the ITV cameras have cleared off is RHOSCOLYN (bet365) in the Sky Bet EBF Stallions Nursery.

He didn’t shape badly at all in his first two starts in warm events at Doncaster and Newbury through July but really put it all together to lay down an impressive breakthrough win at Haydock earlier this month.

The going was officially good to firm there but the winning time was slow by over three and a half seconds and the way Rhoscolyn hits the ground hard suggests he’ll be right at home on an easier surface.

His pedigree backs that up and a revised mark of 85 (went into Haydock rated 73) still looks to underestimate his talent based on how he slammed his rivals from the font having been housed in the widest stall (10).

He looks a colt with a future and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off favourite with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle on Thursday.

Posted at 1600 BST on 19/08/20

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