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Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free betting tips for York Ebor Festival Day Four
Ben Linfoot struck with the Gimcrack winner at an advised 12/1 on day three - don't miss his day four selections on the Saturday of the Ebor Festival at York.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Ebor Festival, Day Four
1pt win Nakeeta in 3.40 York at 12/1
1pt win Platitude in 3.40 York at 33/1
1pt win Berkshire Blue in 2.25 York at 12/1
1pt win Midnight Wilde in 2.25 York at 33/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s 95 years since Flint Jack won back-to-back renewals of the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap and no horse has repeated that feat since as we head into the final day of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival.
The race has evolved over the years and has been the richest handicap in Europe for some time now, something that has been cemented by the surge in prizemoney to £500,000 this year and a whopping £1,000,000 in 12 months’ time.
It’s a different beast these days and though 11 three-year-olds won it between 1981 and 2001 they aren’t even eligible to race in it now after a decade and more of struggling to even get into the contest.
That makes it hard for an unexposed and improving stayer to sneak in towards the bottom of the weights, but we’ve got one this year in the shape of long-time ante-post favourite Stratum who hosed up for Willie Mullins at Newbury last time out.
The 8lb rise for that win was fully deserved and you also can’t quibble with his position in the market, but at 7/2 he’s just short enough considering he’s a thorough stayer that has to prove he has the speed for this test dropping back to 1m6f off his new mark.
Teodoro is 9lb well-in and is a huge player if he stays, but the one I keep coming back to towards the top of the betting is last year’s winner NAKEETA and at 12/1 (Ladbrokes) he’s worth backing to do a Flint Jack for trainer Iain Jardine.
Watching last year’s race back it’s noticeable just how cosily he won after travelling supremely well before weaving his way through under Callum Rodriguez.
After travelling to Australia and running a fine fifth in the Melbourne Cup he started his season a bit later than usual at the Chester Cup in May and he was drawn out of contention in stall 13 there.
He didn’t fire on the Newcastle Tapeta in the Northumberland Plate, either, and not for the first time, but the spark returned last time at Newbury where he ran a fine fifth behind Stratum, shaping like he was returning to peak form.
A 7lb pull at the weights with the Ebor favourite for less than a four-length beating could be crucial now they line up back on the Knavesmire and we know how much Nakeeta loves it at York.
Just 4lb higher than last year, odds of 12/1 are perfectly fair on him notching a repeat win under Callum Rodriguez who is inching towards losing his 3lb claim (needs just seven more winners now).
Sea The Lion and Mountain Bell were on the shortlist as well but at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) I thought Amanda Perrett’s PLATITUDE was a touch underestimated and he’s worth siding with too.
Perrett won the Ebor back in 2000 with Give The Slip and her father Guy Harwood won it a couple of times, as well, with Crazy and Primary in the 1980s.
Big-race successes have eluded the yard in recent years but Platitude is the sort of horse that could win a big pot and he’s won over the Ebor distance of 1m6f a couple of times at Goodwood.
One of those successes was his stable debut in May after a wind operation where he won very nicely from Top Tug off a mark of 102, just 2lb lower than the mark he runs off on Saturday.
After that he went to Sandown and ran a cracker behind Nearly Caught in the Coral Marathon, before he went back to Goodwood for the handicap won by Sir Chauvelin last time.
Anchored in last rounding the turn for home, Adam Kirby made a drastic move from the back of the field to just about lead at which point he traded at just over 2/1 on Betfair as he looked likely to kick on and take over.
However, the petrol quickly ran out and he weakened into eighth, but the way he moved through the field suggested he’s a horse that remains in good form.
He can be forgiven that finishing effort and, with good handicap form over two miles in the bag at this meeting last year, at a big price he’s worth taking a chance on.
Finally, I’ll also take two against the field in the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap starting with Andrew Balding’s BERKSHIRE BLUE at 12/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power).
Balding’s yard are in good form and he’s gone close to winning the Melrose on a few occasions, but this horse looks primed for a really bold bid following his win at the Shergar Cup.
That race, the Classic, has produced two winners of the Melrose in the last seven years including Parlour Games who won both races in 2011.
Berkshire Blue could well follow in his hoofprints as he ran about a bit when he hit the front at Ascot and there’s plenty of room for improvement with him.
A 5lb hike seems fair enough and his sire, Champs Elysees, is a strong stamina influence as we’ve seen with plenty of his progeny including the likes of Trip To Paris and Withhold.
The excellent Jason Watson takes another 3lb off and a bold bid is expected.
Not all of these are certain to stay by any means which makes the 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) on offer about John Ryan’s MIDNIGHT WILDE a big price as his stamina looks assured.
His dam won over 1m6f and she’s related to stayers as well, while Midnight Wilde proved he had inherited that staying power at Chester last time when reeling in King Lud cosily in the style of a really strong stayer.
Highly tried as a juvenile, including in Roaring Lion’s Royal Lodge, Midnight Wilde has unsurprisingly begun to improve now handicapping over a trip and he did well to only go up 2lb for that Chester success.
Last season he ran really well at York on his only previous visit to the track in a good novice race (Encrypted and Sands Of Mali behind) and the galloping nature of the course looks sure to suit.
This is a competitive race as always which helps explain his big price, but he looks underestimated partially because he’s from a smaller yard and his proven stamina and good recent form makes him a good bet at his Friday night odds.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +345.18pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 24/08/18.