Royal Ascot Wednesday tips: Best value bets and preview for June 16
Royal Ascot tips: Wednesday June 16
1pt win Eve Lodge in 2.30 Ascot at 28/1 (BetVictor) - NON-RUNNER
1pt win Kyprios in 3.05 Ascot at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt win Bounce The Blues in 3.40 Ascot at 25/1 (General) - NON-RUNNER
1pt win Layfayette in 5.00 Ascot at 22/1 (BetVictor)
Is Love worth opposing on comeback?
Wednesday’s Group One Prince of Wales’s Stakes is a fascinating contest and the opportunity to see Love try and rubber-stamp her superb three-year-old season is not to be missed.
That doesn’t necessarily make it the best betting race, though, and the only angle I could consider is a close look at the other female in the race, Audarya.
Beating Chad Brown's Rushing Fall in her own back yard at Keeneland should not be underestimated and it’s not like that Breeders' Cup performance hadn’t been coming after James Fanshawe’s mare had won the Prix Jean Romanet and finished third behind Tarnawa and Alpine Star in the Prix de l’Opera during the autumn.
Seeing how she fares against Love should provide a very useful snapshot into how things might play out in the Arc de Triomphe this term, but siding with Audarya first time out doesn’t look the right move, even taking into account the slightly inflated price.
Back Blues and Murphy to cruise home
I’d much rather take a shot at Lockinge runner-up Lady Bowthorpe in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes. It’s not that she doesn’t deserve to be favourite on the back of her Newbury second behind Palace Pier, but she and Queen Power have 3lb penalties which is never simple to overcome (one penalised winner in last decade).
Johnny Murtagh’s Group One Matron Stakes heroine Champers Elysees has the full 5lb extra for her troubles and while I feel she’s almost drifted out to a perfectly backable price now, preference is for Andrew Balding’s lightly-raced BOUNCE THE BLUES.
Quite how she’s not yet won a race for her current yard since switching from John Feane last year remains something of a mystery but safe to say she’s been a touch unfortunate on a couple of occasions, not least when second to German filly Axana in a Group Three over seven furlongs at Lingfield early last month.
That form reads quite well in the context of this event, with fourth Parent’s Prayer emerging to win the Princess Elizabeth at Epsom, and I’m convinced there’s still loads of improvement in the daughter of Excelebration (sire is 2-16 at the Royal meeting here) after just three career runs over a mile.
There’s little doubt she stays this trip on the evidence of her close second to Cloak Of Spirits in the Rosemary Stakes at Newmarket in September, while I don’t mind the high draw (13) as Oisin Murphy can stay clear of trouble out on the wing.
He could even opt to try and make it as there doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of early pace in the race and Bounce The Blues could be hard to catch if injecting her natural speed from halfway.
What's the answer to the Royal Hunt Cup riddle?
Noel Meade recently gained a breakthrough Group One victory on the Flat and can land one of the summer’s most coveted handicaps courtesy of LAYFAYETTE in the Royal Hunt Cup.
The son of French Navy – incidentally also the sire of another well-fancied runner in the race, Irish Admiral – has looked a big improver since dropping back in trip and fitted with cheekpieces this season.
He’s only run twice, winning the Irish Lincolnshire on his Curragh comeback on March 21 and shaping very well when fourth off a 9lb higher mark in another premier handicap at the same venue after a 63-day break last month.
That had all the hallmarks of a perfect Hunt Cup prep and the bare form can definitely be marked up as he was drawn widest of all in stall 16 and consequently had to cover far more ground than the front three, who broke from stalls six, seven and eight. Layfayette was also short of racing room late on so there’s a reasonable case for him being second-best on the day.
The winner, Joseph O’Brien’s three-year-old Visualisation, was getting 13lb from Layfayette and now has a revised mark of 100, so it looks really classy form and the Meade representative surprisingly gets in here off his Irish rating of 96.
The high draw (22) looks a potential boost this time as he’s in between confirmed pace horses Teston (17) and Maydanny (24), while other big form players Haqeeqy (21), Brunch (25) and Magical Morning (26) and the well-backed Astro King (27) will also be doing battle on the same part of the track.
Take nothing away from Chris Hayes but champion jockey Colin Keane coming in for the ride (34-197 for the yard, +71.03 level stakes profit) is a great move too as he won on the horse as a two-year-old at Navan, where the ground was riding good to firm.
He ticks a lot of boxes including the ability to stay further in what is always a fiercely-run race.
Will Aidan O'Brien lift another Vase?
Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last eight editions of the Queen’s Vase, one of which was 33/1 shot Sword Fighter, and KYPRIOS looks the one to be on at the odds this year.
The son of Galileo has a very in-and-out profile and it’s obviously a small concern than his two complete blowouts have come when travelling over to Britain but there’s reason to believe he could fare much better on this occasion.
Firstly, his wins have come from the two appearances he’s made going right-handed around a bend, initially on debut when looking potentially well above average at Galway in September, and then when defying greenness in a winners’ race at Cork first time out this spring.
Victory there prompted connections to have a tilt at the Lingfield Derby Trial which suggests he was very much in the reckoning for Epsom prior to an ultimately limp effort in the mud.
He found very little for Ryan Moore despite cheekpieces going on for the first time at Lingfield but some of the form that day appeared a bit suspect at the time and subsequent Epsom hero Adayar being beaten in the feature supports that notion with the benefit of hindsight.
It’s far too soon to be writing off this colt, who has Ascot in his veins being closely related to 2015 Prince of Wales’s winner Free Eagle, while his full sister Search For A Song was second here on Champions Day last year.
Up in trip on proper summer ground for the first time could spark him back to life after another short break, while it’s also worth noting O’Brien has a decent strike-rate (9-30) when removing cheekpieces, something he did successfully on the only occasions he tried it in 2020 courtesy of Magic Wand and Passion.
Earlier on, I can’t resist a dart at EVE LODGE at big prices in the Queen Mary Stakes.
There’s an element of David and Goliath here in that the Charlie Fellowes-trained filly, who cost just 12,500 guineas in September, takes on the potentially exceptional Wes Ward challenger Twilight Gleaming, who is bound to take some pegging back under John Velazquez.
However, Jamie Spencer should be able to at least keep the American speedball in his sights given they’re drawn next to one another in stalls 19 and 20 respectively. Spencer gave the daughter of Ardad a lovely introductory outing over this course and distance on May 7 and the filly came from the back of the eight-runner field that day to finish third behind Get Ahead and El Hadeeyah, who were to the fore throughout.
She duly built on it with an odds-on success on the turf at Lingfield last time, never coming off the bridle to win by a length and a half with six lengths back to the rest.
It’s impossible to know just how much she had in the tank there but it’ll have done her confidence the world of good and the prospect of encountering fast ground for the first time is interesting as her half-sister won a Pontefract maiden on good to firm.
She might not be in the same league as the favourite but she’s almost twice the price of Get Ahead which doesn’t look quite right on the debut running and if the first taste of fast ground brings her on massively then she could be the surprise package.
Published at 1600 BST on 15/06/21