It's day three at Glorious Goodwood on Thursday and Matt Brocklebank picks out the value, featuring a 25/1 chance in the Group One feature.
Recommended bets, Thursday July 30
1pt win Celtic Art in 1.45 Goodwood at 12/1
1pt win Talbot in 2.15 Goodwood at 33/1
1pt win One Voice in 3.15 Goodwood at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Thursday looks like a big day for English King, who bids to get back on course to stardom in the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.
However you thrashed out Serpentine’s runaway Derby triumph, English King was among a bunch of horses caught out of their ground at Epsom and in the circumstances the impressive Lingfield Derby Trial winner did perfectly well to finish where he did in fifth.
After his owner confirmed Stradivarius to be in line for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe this season, English King now seems destined for a crack at the St Leger – providing he’s good enough – and he’s strong in the betting to win here en route to Doncaster.
Khalifa Sat and Mogul – second and sixth at Epsom respectively – reoppose, while the silky Bahrain Trophy winner Al Aasy must be respected despite the weight penalty.
It’s a race that should help really sort out the staying three-year-old colts but not one in which there’s much in the way of value.
There’s a bet to be had in the day’s Group One feature, however, with ONE VOICE (25/1 Ladbrokes) backed to upset the market principals in the Qatar Nassau Stakes.
She went under the radar a little bit last season, especially in relation to much-vaunted stablemates Albigna, Alpine Star, Cayenne Pepper and Millisle, but her three-length maiden win at Leopardstown last July was an exciting performance and the race has thrown up seven other subsequent winners, including a couple of black type performers.
One Voice has stepped up too, being mugged close home by another stable companion Silence Please in the Salsabil Stakes, before beating subsequent Group Three winner Snow in the Blue Wind back at Leopardstown.
Last time out she got no run whatsoever after being boxed in down on the rail at the Curragh before it was too late and it’s an effort that can be marked up appreciably, if not completely scrapped.
She’s a filly getting better with time, she has a wicked turn of foot which suggests the track and drying ground will play to her strengths, and we know she stays the 10-furlong trip well.
That’s not the case with Nazeef, who is progressing markedly and loves a battle but is a big, heavy filly and could get caught out on this course trying a new distance if it continues to dry out.
The one to beat is probably Donnacha O’Brien’s Classic-winning Fancy Blue, who got the better of the Coronation Stakes winner Alpine Star and Irish Guineas winner Peaceful when edging the verdict in the French Oaks.
The Irish three-year-old fillies look seriously strong this year, clearly headed by Love, but One Voice looks capable of doing her bit with a massive run under Tom Marquand in the Nassau.
CELTIC ART (12/1 BetVictor, BoyleSports) could be up to defying top weight in the Unibet You’re On Handicap.
He was a non-runner on his only planned outing so far this season but the fact that was in the French Derby tells you all you need to know about highly regarded he is by the Cole team.
After a quiet debut on the July Course last summer – a race featuring a whole host of future winners including Al Suhail (now rated 113), First Receiver (108), Tsar (103), Eshaasy (92) and Tammani (107) – he was a model of consistency right through the autumn.
It took him another three goes to open his account but that’s due to the fact he bumped into Persuasion in the big seven furlong maiden at this meeting, and then subsequent Jersey Stakes winner Molatham (112) in the Convivial Maiden at York.
He signed off 2019 with a highly creditable second to familiar foe Tammani in a mile Listed race at Deauville, where the winner was given a peach of a front-running ride by Pierre-Charles Boudot and Celtic Art stayed on late to pass the eventual third close home.
He wasn’t suited by the stop-start gallop set that day and should be far more at home in a big field back at a course he likes (won his maiden on second visit here on September 3).
The 10-furlong trip is something new but there must be a good chance he improves for it given his pedigree, while a mark of 101 on handicap debut clearly looks stiff at first glance but the more you delve into the form from last season, the clearer it becomes that he could have something in hand.
Whether he can give a stone to the twice-raced Magnetised is another matter, though his experience shouldn’t be overlooked in a potentially rough race of this nature, and on balance I want the top weight on my side at the prices.
I also can’t resist a small dart at TALBOT (33/1 bet365, Hills, Coral) in the Qatar Richmond Stakes, despite the fact he has 20lb to find with Yazaman and a similar amount with Qaader strictly on BHA ratings.
It’s the time of year when two-year-olds can occasionally blow their official assessment completely out of the water and it looks significant enough that Brian Meehan has chosen to run his 86-rated colt in this Group Two event, rather than one of the nurseries or a softer option elsewhere.
He was reportedly being aimed at the Brocklesby back in the early-spring so has clearly always shown plenty of dash at home and he lived up to his billing with a Lingfield debut win on June 8, after which I’m just not sure he’s had the rub of the green.
The Coventry Stakes seemed like a slightly odd move 12 days after his debut and he simply failed to fire for whatever reason, but I’m always happy to forgive a horse one bad run, especially at Ascot which some two-year-olds don’t like, while last time out in the Weatherbys Super Sprint he had a legitimate excuse as he stumbled on leaving the stalls and was playing catch-up from the outset.
He ended up running quite well for a mid-pack finish over towards the far side, away from the thick of the action, and the fact the horse he beat first time out at Lingfield – Jojo Rabbit – finished second to Happy Romance at Newbury, gives you more of an indication to the fact he was a shade unfortunate not to get involved.
Talbot has it all to prove returned to six furlongs and back in such hot company here, but the son of Gleneagles is still a really promising individual.
Meehan – who is in decent form and has pulled rabbits from the hat in the past - has opted for first-time cheekpieces, presumably to help this horse focus on the job early in the race, and it’s worth noting the trainer has quite a smart little strike-rate (4-22, 18%) when fitting that aid to juveniles at the first time of asking.
Posted at 1600 BST on 29/07/20
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