Matt Brocklebank reckons the home team can wrestle back the Arc de Triomphe trophy from history-seeking Enable on Sunday - check out the Value Bet preview.
Recommended bets, Sunday October 4
1pt win Raabihah in 3.05 ParisLongchamp at 14/1
1pt win Tropbeau in 4.55 ParisLongchamp at 16/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
This year’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe may have been shorn of the most exciting three-year-old filly in Love, but perhaps RAABIHAH can fill her shoes and give the history-seeking Enable most to worry about at ParisLongchamp.
The big-race conditions provide the younger females with a massive chance to prosper and Zarkava (2008), Danedream (2011), Treve (2013) and Enable herself (2017) have all been three-year-old fillies to recently capitalise on the age and sex weight allowances.
A total of eight females have claimed top spot since that memorable win for Zarkava 12 years ago and only three go to post this time around, with the likeable Deirdre making up the trio.
She would have preferred a much sounder surface to race on and, in truth, we don’t really know exactly where we stand with Raabihah on that score.
The one remaining Classic-generation filly in the field is yet to encounter a deep racing surface but what we do know is that lots of her Arc-winning sire’s progeny – including Stradivarius, Cloth Of Stars and Crystal Ocean – all handled it well, while Raabihah appeared to drift in the betting on account of the glorious sunshine and drying conditions ahead of the Prix Vermeille.
She was a fraction disappointing in her trial. Widely expected to improve plenty for the step up to a mile and a half, she didn’t really build on her previous Deauville win in terms of the bare level of form.
But it wasn’t a bad prep, after all, and the way the race was run will be in stark contrast to an Arc.
They crawled early in the Vermeille, in typical fashion, and it was a big advantage to be forwardly placed, whereas Raabihah was settled at the back of the field and could do no more than run on late to snatch second.
She’ll have a guaranteed stronger pace to chase on Sunday and should, on paper at least, be able to pick up a workable early position from stall two down on the inside.
From what we’ve seen so far it’s an extremely strong crop of three-year-old fillies and Jean-Claude Rouget’s charge was a touch unlucky (wide trip) when narrowly coming out fourth best in a tight finish with Fancy Blue, Peaceful and Alpine Star in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly in July.
She has held that level of form since, rather than exploding to new heights, but the Arc looks to have been the target all along and, while clearly needed to get close to the two-time winner, a much-improved effort this weekend seems more than likely.
The aforementioned Fancy Blue and Alpine Star head the betting for what looks a hot renewal of the Prix de l’Opera Longines, while the big home hope is Tawkeel for the same connections as Raabihah.
Tarnawa is likely to shorten up if Raabihah plays a hand in the Arc earlier on the card but much softer ground is the issue for Dermot Weld’s filly here.
There’s a lot of guesswork involved when weighing up the championship juvenile races, while prices have crashed left, right and centre after Battaash was scratched from the Prix de l’Abbaye, but Andre Fabre has won the Qatar Prix de la Foret three times, twice with three-year-olds, and his TROPBEAU is worth a bet.
Barring a too-bad-to-be-true blip in the Prix Jean Prat, when running no sort of race and ultimately eased, her record over this seven-furlong trip is extremely strong and she looked right back to herself again when beaten just three-quarters of a length by Earthlight in the Prix du Pin last month.
Given how Fabre trains them for this meeting I’d be very surprised if she was 100% fighting fit for that comeback effort and, while Earthlight is the clear market leader this weekend, the classy Tropbeau is 16/1.
She loves really soft ground from what we’ve seen of her so far and is usually ridden a lot closer to the pace than last time so, from stall five, it’s hoped she’s able to avoid some of the potential scrimmaging which we often see towards the end of this race.
She remains potentially quite exciting and has all the tools to be a big player at this level.
Posted at 1200 BST on 03/10/20
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