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Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival day one tips
Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival.
Value Bet Selections: Cheltenham Day One
It has been a testing season for Willie Mullins, but the man who has dominated the Cheltenham Festival in recent years has again assembled a strong team for this year’s meeting and once again he could be the big winner on day one.
He saddles up the first and third favourites in the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, a race he has farmed in recent years, in Melon and Bunk Off Early, while his two best mares, from the ones that are fit and healthy in any case, are scheduled to bang heads in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle.
Ruby Walsh has plumped for Limini over last year’s winner Vroum Vroum Mag in that race, which is perhaps an indication over the concerns of the well-being of the latter since her less-than-impressive success at Doncaster in January.
Mullins will probably win both races and I’ve no desire to take on those particular market leaders. Perhaps I should be taking Melon on given he’s priced up on reputation rather than the substance of his form, but the vibes from connections are so strong and they have to be respected in this contest - especially in what is a weak renewal.
The Irish champion trainer also has a fabulous recent record in the Stan James Champion Hurdle having won four of the last six runnings, but the odds are against him this year.
With no Annie Power and no Faugheen, the last two winners of the race, he’s left with Footpad and Wicklow Brave who are 20/1 and 25/1 respectively. It’s difficult to make a case for either on form.
Yanworth heads the betting and he doesn’t appeal at around the 11/4 mark. His jumping has been sketchy and there has to be a worry he’ll lose ground at some stage which could well be crucial in the heat of a Champion Hurdle.
I must admit, though, there isn’t much wrong with the market. Petit Mouchoir is drifting, perhaps because he’s been winning in small fields in Ireland, perhaps because he was well beaten in last year’s Supreme. With the ground drying he could drift further yet, perhaps to a backable price come Tuesday morning.
But as things stand I’ll leave the feature alone as well, with the two handicaps appealing much more from a betting perspective.
First up is the Ultima Handicap Chase at 2.50, a race where we have the last three winners returning to lock horns in a typically competitive renewal.
The 2014 winner Holywell runs off a 3lb higher mark than when he won it, the 2015 winner The Druids Nephew runs off an identical mark of 146 and last year’s winner Un Temps Pour Tout is 7lb worse off this time around.
All have chances with The Druids Nephew the most fancied according to the market at 10/1, with Un Temps Pour Tout the least fancied to win the race again at 14s. Those prices are probably about right, but who knows what you’ll get for your money from 12/1 Holywell? He’s shown no form this season, but he always seems to come alive at the Festival…
I can see why punters would be tempted by Jonjo O’Neill’s charge, particularly as the stable has won three of the last eight runnings, but with that in mind I’m more taken by the claims of his stablemate GO CONQUER at 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 Ladbrokes, Coral).
It has been a poor season for O’Neill by his standards, but Go Conquer has done his bit to boost the stable’s prizemoney total after a consistent, if ultimately win-less, campaign.
He was just held by Present Man on his seasonal return at Ascot and he then fell at the first on his return to the same track at their Christmas meeting. A good second to Double Shuffle at Kempton on December 27 followed and that form was franked when the winner went on to finish second in the BetBright Handicap Chase on his next start.
Go Conquer went back to Ascot last month and finished second to Tenor Nivernais in soft ground. He was beaten 30 lengths, but paid the price for trying to make a race of it with the winner and he’s better than that.
I like how he travelled at Kempton when he was second to Double Shuffle, his first go over three miles. That suggests he has plenty more to offer at the trip and although I’d have a slight doubt over his stamina for this if the ground was genuinely soft, he should be fine on the drying conditions.
He should be competitive off a mark of 137 on this season’s evidence and his good handicap form from Wincanton last April has been boosted twice in recent weeks, both by Dusky Lark and Somchine who were put in their place by O’Neill’s horse that day.
At 33/1 he rates a fair each-way bet and I also want to take a chance on Venetia Williams’ VIC DE TOUZAINE at an even bigger price in the same race (40/1 generally 1,2,3,4).
This horse’s form also ties in with Dusky Lark as he was second to the Robert Walford-trained charge at Wincanton in February with subsequent BetBright winner, Pilgrims Bay, back in third.
That’s strong form and it was Vic De Touzaine’s first run in almost a year so he deserves extra credit for the part he played, while he just ran into a very well-handicapped Thomas Crapper when second to Robin Dickin’s horse at Newbury last time.
He’s probably a big price because there are a couple of unknowns with him, namely the ground and the trip. However, he shapes like he’ll appreciate the extra distance and it’s interesting Williams has waited until the Festival to step him up, while sire Dom Alco has been prolific at producing good stayers (Neptune Collonges and Silviniaco Conti spring to mind).
Looking at his half-brothers there is hope he’ll be fine on better ground, too, as several of his family went well on good ground including Johann De Vonnas who was twice a winner on such conditions for Nicky Henderson.
It’s hardly conclusive evidence he’ll go on the ground himself, but I wouldn’t rule him out on account of the conditions and at 40/1 he’s been underestimated for a handler who has an excellent record at pulling a rabbit out of a hat in Cheltenham handicaps.
Finally, I want to take a couple against the field in the closing Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap at 5.30.
The one I most want on side is Malcolm Jefferson’s DOUBLE W’S at 16/1 (general price).
Jefferson has a score to settle in this race after his Attaglance was desperately unlucky behind Present View a couple of years ago and in Double W’s he might just have the horse to do the business.
A good bumper horse (beaten by Altior and Brain Power), he was solid enough over hurdles, but his career has taken off since he went chasing.
He jumped really well when winning at Carlisle and Wetherby on his first two starts over fences, both on good ground earlier in the season, while an uncharacteristic mistake on slighter softer conditions did for him at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting.
Jefferson resisted the urge to step him up in trip after that and he ran a fine race at Doncaster at the end of January, going down fighting to Upsilon Bleu on his first go out of novice company.
That should’ve hardened him up for Tuesday’s test and plenty of improvement is expected now he tackles two-and-a-half miles over fences for the first time. His best two efforts over hurdles came at that distance and he’s bred for the trip too.
At 16s he’s a good bet but I also want a saver on Dan Skelton’s ITS'AFREEBEE at 10/1 (William Hill, Bet Victor).
This horse was a Grade Two winner over hurdles last season before he ran a fine third behind Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Neptune here at the Festival.
His novice chase career has been a bit hit and miss so far, but his best effort came on good ground at Wetherby where he beat Cole Harden and it could be he was swept aside by two very smart sorts in Waiting Patitently and Politologue at Haydock in January.
It’s a slight concern he was so poor at Southwell last time, but the Skelton yard wasn’t firing by any means at the end of January and at least the handicapper dropped him 5lb to allow him to get into this race.
With the Skelton yard now in much better form and first-time cheekpieces applied, it would be no surprise to see Its’afreebee put in a lifetime best over fences and that could well be enough to see him home.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +388.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 13/03/17.