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Free Newbury betting tips: Value Bet preview for Sunday February 21
Racing betting tips: Value Bet, Sunday February 21
1pt win Dhowin in 1.50 Newbury at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Magic Saint in 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Galice Macalo in 3.35 Newbury at 28/1 (General)
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There are any number of horses seemingly plotted up for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but few make quite as much appeal, at the prices, as GALICE MACALO (28/1 General), who was scratched quite early on (January 19) from the initial incarnation but features among the declarations for Sunday’s rescheduled contest.
I won’t pretend to know precisely why the mare has been given the go-ahead second time around, but she’s had another eight days’ preparation time and the absence of Metier – who beat her out of sight in the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown when last seen – may also have contributed to the rethink.
On reflection, the Tolworth could hardly have played out less favourably for Galice Macalo, who very much ran her race ‘inside out’, pulling fiercely for her head behind long-time leader Shakem Up’Arry and ultimately weakening out of things to be fifth having emptied on turning into the straight.
Getting 7lb from the geldings, she was considered Metier’s main market rival there – sent off just 3/1 – and it would be unwise to read the form strictly and write her off prematurely given she’d been on a sharp upward curve prior to that.
Going back to last term, Galice Macalo failed to win during a three-race juvenile campaign, but immediately started making up for lost time in the spring with back-to-back novice wins at Warwick and Stratford during October, after which she went for a Listed handicap at Sandown on December 5.
She seemed to love the super-strong gallop set by Totterdown there, jumping and travelling sweetly, before showing a bright turn of foot to pick it up between the final two flights and appear to have the race in safe keeping.
She was cruelly run down close home by a fast-finishing Benson (Mister Coffey seven and a half lengths adrift in third), but there was no disgrace in that – another improved effort without question - and the winner has since finished four and a half lengths behind runner-up Buzz, in receipt of 11lb, at Ascot.
Galice Macalo gets 18lb from Nicky Henderson’s grey who is top weight this weekend – the pair partnered by very capable 5lb claiming riders – and she might just be able to settle into a much better rhythm behind the pace-setters, of which there are several including For Pleasure, Shakem Up’Arry, Annual Invictus and Guard Your Dreams.
Trainer Jane Williams has only had one winner all year which isn’t particularly inspiring, admittedly, but it does appear to be factored into the horse’s price and it’s worth noting Williams clearly helped oversee the 2016 Betfair Hurdle victory of Agrapart, who was well beaten in the Tolworth en route to bolting up by 11 lengths at Newbury off a similar mark to Galice Macalo’s under daughter Lizzie Kelly, claiming 5lb.
On top of that, 2018 Betfair hero Kalashnikov had been beaten four lengths by subsequent Supreme winner Summerville Boy in the same Sandown Grade One, while the 2015 Tolworth runner-up Jolly’s Cracked It went on to be fifth at Newbury before winning the Ladbroke at Ascot in the autumn of that year, and plenty of others who just came up short at Sandown have gone on to achieve a great deal, including 2019 second Grand Sancy, who beat his elders in the Kingwell Hurdle on his very next start.
Most of those, including Agrapart, loved the typically testing conditions around this time of year and, despite what happened on heavy last time, there must be a fair chance Galice Macalo will show her best in soft (more rain forecast), given her sire Saddler Maker can number the likes of Bristol De Mai, Alpha Des Obeaux and Cepage among his progeny.
Perhaps she’ll need more of a stamina test further down the line, but the natural speed she showed at Stratford, and again when shooting to the front at Sandown, sticks in the mind and I really like her overall profile including the perfect 2-2 record on left-handed tracks so far this season.
Elsewhere on a superb card, last year’s second Secret Investor could be up to frightening one or two of the bigger names, including stablemate Clan Des Obeaux, getting 6lb in the Betfair Denman Chase, but the weather doesn’t look too kind for him as he really likes good ground.
It’s a no-bet race but I can’t resist a small play in the Betfair Game Spirit Chase and it’s Paul Nicholls again who holds the aces up against two-mile curveball Champ. The latter looks well worth taking on as he has his Gold Cup prep at this vastly-reduced distance, and Nicholls’ Greaneteen appears plenty short enough in the betting saddled with a penalty for winning a slightly unsatisfactory renewal of the Haldon Gold Cup earlier in the season.
He took another step forward when second to Politologue in the Tingle Creek to be fair to the horse, but does look worth opposing with stablemate MAGIC SAINT (12/1 bet365, Hills), who doesn’t have too much to find at all on these terms.
He’s still only a seven-year-old himself and won his only previous Newbury outing, edging out Bun Doran in a course and distance handicap in November 2019, and he was back in the winner’s enclosure earlier this season when pretty impressively accounting for the reopposing Fanion D’Estruval under a big weight.
Magic Saint has been fairly well held in two starts since, including in a first-time tongue-tie (which is retained) at Cheltenham last time, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him resume in peak form back here freshened up by a 71-day layoff, as he’s won after a break in the past.
Bet of the day comes earlier on in the Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Weekly Handicap Hurdle where DHOWIN (16/1 General) is not to be missed on his first go at three miles.
He was snapped up for £40,000 in the autumn following the Trevor Hemmings dispersal and, having shown a bit of promise for Jonjo O’Neill, the well-bred seven-year-old has stepped up a level in the care of Warren Greatrex this time around, finishing a respectable fifth despite an early mistake which put him on the back foot in the Lanzarote Hurdle last time.
He’d really caught the eye prior to that, running on strongly at the finish over two miles, five and a half furlongs at Ascot, and he’s basically been crying out for a true examination of stamina all year.
Gavin Sheehan, who rides Newbury particularly well, is back in the saddle for the first time since the horse’s seasonal debut sixth in a fair race at Wincanton and he make loads of appeal off the same mark as at Kempton with the yard in decent form.
Published at 1500 GMT on 20/02/21
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