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Value Bet: Ben Linfoot racing preview and free tips for Beverley and Sandown
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot tipped the Sky Bet Ebor winner at 16/1 last weekend - don't miss his Value Bet selections for Beverley and Sandown on Saturday.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, August 31
1pt win Heartwarming in 1.50 Sandown at 16/1
1pt win Intense Romance in 3.15 Beverley at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It could be a good day for Clive Cox on Saturday as he has the favourite for the two feature races, with Tis Marvellous heading the Beverley Bullet betting while his Positive is the market leader for the Solario Stakes at Sandown.
We’ll tackle Beverley later on, but Positive certainly looks a worthy favourite for the Solario considering his good second to Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out.
He finished over eight lengths ahead of Visinari that day and Mark Johnston’s horse is third in the betting for the Solario, with Pinatubo’s stablemate Al Suhail looking the main threat to Positive even if he does have plenty to find on form.
By then Cox could be going for a Sandown double, as he runs HEARTWARMING (16/1 General) in the opening Play 4 To Score At Betway Handicap on the five-furlong track.
The Showcasing filly has to bounce back from being pulled up very early on at Ayr on her latest start, when she looked to have lost her action, but that was 10 weeks ago and Cox, a master trainer of sprinters, has given her plenty of time to recover.
Previous to that she showed she had trained on at Bath when she was a good third in a Listed race won by Queen Of Desire, despite being slowly away and then being keen on the outside of the field.
I like the way she rallied towards the end of the race to regain third after being headed and if Adam Kirby can channel her raw speed in this race on her handicap debut she could well outrun her odds.
Her owners Hot To Trot Racing have had a few winners at Sandown thanks to Kurious and this filly, who was second to the Henry Candy-trained horse on debut before winning her maiden at the same track next time out.
It looks a good call by Cox to bring her here for her retrieval mission, then, and off a mark of 92 she could well be nicely handicapped judging by the standard of fillies she finished ahead of at Bath earlier in the season.
Over at Beverley, as previously mentioned, Cox has the favourite for the Bullet, as well, with Tis Marvellous heading the market thanks to his form at Ascot on his last couple of starts.
The Wokingham runner-up went one better dropped to five furlongs at the same track last time out and was so impressive that he went up 8lb to a rating of 111.
That means he's 5lb clear on official ratings and that explains his odds of 11/4, but the one concern is the potential for more rain that wouldn’t suit him at all.
On Tuesday 25 millimetres fell on the track after an already-wet August, and though the ground has dried to good to soft, good in places at the time of writing there does look to be more rain forecast early in the afternoon on Saturday.
It wouldn’t take much to ease conditions, you feel, and that is against Tis Marvellous who is very much at his best on good to firm ground.
With that in mind, I’m going to take a punt on the weather and go with INTENSE ROMANCE to deliver at 14/1 (General).
Michael Dods has a great record with sprinters, as recently showcased by Dakota Gold, and this mare is very useful on her day as she showed at the back-end of last season when she rattled in an autumn hat-trick.
Two of those wins came in Listed company and she’ll certainly appreciate any easing of the conditions with all three of those 2018 victories coming on soft or heavy ground.
She’ll have to improve on her first two starts this campaign, but she’s been significantly better in the second half of the season every year she’s been in training and this time last year she ran a good second to Global Applause in the aforementioned sprint handicap at Sandown.
Getting weight from plenty of her Beverley rivals, she doesn’t have an awful lot to find on her best form and her running style could well be suited to this track, as she likes to be close up and grind away.
At 14/1 she's a fair bet on slightly easier than good ground, but she's a great bet if it turns nastier than that.
Posted at 1700 BST on 30/08/19.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +371.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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