David Massey provides the New Year's Day selections and he's got three recommended bets to consider.
Racing Betting Tips: Wednesday January 1
1pt win Felton Bellevue in 12.28 Southwell at 7/2 (General) - min 3/1
1pt win Sweet Fantasy in 1.45 Musselburgh at 3/1 (General) - take no lower
0.5pts e.w. Now Then Wendy in 3.24 Southwell at 22/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4) - take no lower
12.28 Southwell
There's been plenty of rain around these parts overnight (with a bit more to come this morning) and it's going to ride pretty testing at Southwell.
That's going to be against a fair few of the competitors for this handicap chase, but not FELTON BELLEVUE, who relishes it, and he comes here in good form after a good effort at Market Rasen last time, his best run for a while.
He likes Southwell too, with a win and a second from his two starts here, and basically he ticks just about every box when looking for the winner of this. The general 7/2 looks a very fair price.
1.45 Musselburgh
Liari is an interesting runner for Paul Nicholls and has been installed as favourite, but thre are two concerns with him – the first is his stamina for further than 2m which must be a doubt with his best form coming at a sharp 2m to date, while Nicholls is at the time of year when his horses can fall out of form, and while he’s getting winners at present, it’s worth noting that nine of his last 20 runners have either pulled up or finished last.
Benson has won this race for the past two years but is priced up as if on track for a hat-trick, whereas it’s easy to argue that the wheels have fallen off completely since his win 12 months ago.
I don’t mind backing out-of-form horses with ideal conditions, but the important factor is getting a price that offers value, and I don’t think 4/1 or 9/2 about Benson is all that attractive given he’s beaten precisely four horses across his last six starts, even allowing for all but one of those races representing stiffer tasks than this.
Preference here is for the lightly raced SWEET FANTASY, who won her first two starts over hurdles before racing too freely in the Listed hurdle won by Take No Chances at Wetherby on her return.
She was fitted with a hood for her latest start at Cheltenham and caught the eye making late headway against a pace bias in the race won by Woodhoh. She was last turning for home in a race which turned into a sprint there and passed half the field to be beaten just 6½ lengths in sixth place.
Sweet Fantasy is unlikely to give the leaders so much rope here and Alex Chadwick can claim 5lb, making her 7lb lower in effect than last time. This sharp 2½m should suit and she should go close.
2.05 Cheltenham
If you thought the handicapper might have given Springwell Bay a few more pounds for his second to Jango Baie here last time out, as he was giving the winner 8lb and had Caldwell Potter well behind in third, you’d be right, and wrong. Let me explain.
Springwell Bay already had a handicap mark of 145 prior to that contest, but as a Class 2 novice chase, the handicapper is not allowed to raise the marks of beaten horses as part of the criteria to increase field sizes in such races. For the record, BHA handicapper Chris Nash gave Springwell Bay a performance rating of 147, so he is effectively 2lb well-in here.
Springwell Bay won here in heavy ground over hurdles so won’t care if the rain comes, and his claims are crystal clear, with the realistic chance of further improvement providing he retains his composure in the preliminaries.
Soft to heavy ground isn’t really what Gemirande wants, and the handicapper has been harsh enough based on his December Gold Cup win, so the one to take advantage if the selection fails to fire is probably Colonel Harry, who patently failed to stay in the Coral Gold Cup last time, but travelled into the race like a horse in form and will relish every drop of rain now dropping back to his ideal trip.
2.20 Musselburgh
Although he’s out of the handicap, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an improved performance from Indian Louis here. The gelding has a patchy profile over fences but is essentially a bold jumper when allowed to stride on, while he tends to make mistakes under restraint, and connections seem to have found the key to him in recent starts.
When allowed to lead over fences, his record reads 1512 and he ran a cracker when a half-length second of 15 to The Flier Begley at Carlisle last time, jumping on again at the last before losing out in a driving finish in a well-contested race in which the first three home were all coming off a win.
The Flier Begley ran really well from a 3lb higher mark at Haydock on Monday and Indian Louis is definitely capable of better over fences, with his jumping looking an asset in the closing stages (banked the final ditch, which was his only mistake).
I’d have preferred to see him race off his correct mark, but with Alan Doyle taking 5lb off, he's tempting enough to back at 16/1 and bigger.
3.24 Southwell
At a huge price I was quite taken with Steph Cameron’s NOW THEN WENDY here, a good-looking mare with some scope about her and I did like the way she went through the race.
Two out I was sure she was coming through for third but her early keenness stopped her from getting home, and she faded after the last.
The key to her is going to be getting her to settle better - if she does that, she's not without hope in a weak race, and Sky Bet's four places in a race that's already cut up looks worth chancing.
Preview posted 0942 GMT on 01/01/25
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