David Massey has three bets to go to war with on Saturday after consulting with co-writer Rory Delargy. Check out the preview and tips now.
Racing betting tips: Saturday, January 16
1pt win Mac Tottie in 12.20 Market Rasen at 7/2 (minimum 5/2)
1pt win Le Breuil in 3.00 Warwick at 6/1 (minimum 5/1)
1pt win The Captains Inn in 3.35 Warwick at 33/1 (minimum 28/1)
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12.20 Market Rasen - Mac Tottie
Mac Tottie was useful over hurdles and judged on his latest win around here, now appears to be finding his feet over fences too.
I was in attendance that day at Market Rasen, and he looked very well in the paddock beforehand, so it was pleasing to see him return to form to back up that visual impression. Always travelling well, he put the race to bed two out and stayed on strongly all the way to the line.
An 8lb rise still leaves him on a fair mark based on his hurdles form, and the step up in trip can be viewed as a positive, having won at 3m over hurdles.
Duhallow Lad will like the ground too, but a step up to 3m asks a new question of him, and he isn’t certain to stay. Sizing Cusimano has the ability but it’s over two years since he won one, whilst Ask Paddy looks a few pounds too high in the handicap at present, and has run poorly in his two starts at the track too.
3.00 Warwick - Le Breuil
Some agreement from us (Rory Delargy and myself) concerning the races from Warwick this week. Which was nice.
However, there’s no disguising the fact this is a moderate affair this year, and if it wasn’t for Catterick getting called off in the week, we’d have just the ten runners. As it is, Le Breuil, Late Romantic and Red Infantry all take their chance here instead.
The point about Le Breuil is that he needs to win a race of this stature to cement his place in the Grand National itself come April, as his current mark of 140, likely as not, won’t get him in.
Opportunities between then and now to do so may be thin on the ground, and the reason for him going to Catterick was surely to find a weakish race to win without taking too much out of himself. This is clearly tougher, but it’s winnable.
He looks very well handicapped at present, having finished third in the Becher Chase on his latest start, and has undergone wind surgery since then. If that repeats itself, then that would obviously be a negative, but he stays well and was fifth in this last year, the standing start not helping his cause as he constantly found himself short of room when trying to improve his position throughout.
3.35 Warwick - The Captains Inn
A good renewal of this Pertemps Qualifier, which often throws up a clue as to the final come March, with the likes of Holywell and Sire Du Berlais beaten in this before going on to success in the big one.
Both Imperial Alcazar, who boasts strong novice form, and David Pipe’s unexposed Keppage, a good fourth to Stimulating Song in what looked a strong handicap at Cheltenham when last seen, can both be given chances, but both already have a mark that would see them into the final, whilst The Captains Inn would need to be winning this if he’s to raise himself to a rating that would be high enough.
The Captains Inn didn’t run well when last seen but at the time, many of Ben Pauling’s runners were under a cloud. However, that’s not the case now, with the yard in better form.
He looked a class act, both in the paddock and the race, when beating Chef D’Equipe at Leicester on his hurdles debut back in 2019 and was thought good enough to take his chance in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree later in the year.
Sadly, he went wrong when travelling well there and was having his first run since then when well beaten at Chepstow in December. He’s likely to improve plenty on that, and there’s still time for this lightly-raced individual to show how good he looked as a novice.
3.15 Market Rasen - Merry Mistress
Pam Sly’s Eileendover, impressive on the eye in two bumpers so far, and the Willie Mullins raider Grandee take up a fair chunk of the market between them here, and that makes Merry Mistress look a fair price to beat the pair of them.
As much as Eileendover has looked good, the form of her two wins isn’t that hard to pick apart - there’s not been a winner from either race, and Splashing, third home at Wetherby last time, was last of five in a bumper back there in earlier this week. She faces a different test here, up another half a mile in more testing ground, and quotes of 6-4 look short enough.
Grangee has to be respected, with Willie Mullins looking to follow up last year’s win in the race, but Merry Mistress did it well on her debut at Hereford, coming right away from the favourite in the closing stages, and in a good time. Her pedigree says she’ll want further in the future, but with more snow and rain forecast, this might turn into more of a stamina test than a speed test, and that will suit her. Her trainer continues to have a superb season, and Merry Mistress looks a useful prospect.
Rory and I disagree on this one, to a point - we want to take the favourite on, but I like Merry Mistress, whereas he’s with Grangee. If there had been the eight runners rather than seven, then Merry Mistress would look the proverbial each-way bet to nothing, but as it stands, we’ll have to agree to disagree, and have an uneasy silence on the phone...
Published at 1800 GMT on 15/01/21
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