David Massey picks out the best bets at Southwell on New Year's Day as out Punting Pointers team bid to get 2021 off to a flying start.
Bond Is Back - 12.05 Southwell - Bond Angel
A very Happy New Year to all our readers!
Thrill Seeker was a ready winner at Wolverhampton last time and will be a short price to follow up, but there are plenty of reasons for wanting to take him on - his head carriage there left plenty to be desired, he steps up in trip, is 7lb higher and arguably most importantly, faces a completely different surface today.
For those inclined, he looks short enough to simply lay, as there is credible opposition, but for those wanting a bet, the all-or-nothing 20-1 and bigger about Bond Angel looks on the big side.
Bear in mind again that temperatures are due to go well below freezing overnight, and again the track will be harrowed deep and ride on the slow side. Her record here on standard to slow reads 123, the win an easy 8l one (albeit from a much lower mark) so she’ll not care how many times the tractor goes around before the first.
This will only be her second start for Scott Dixon and it may be she needs a bit more time to acclimatise (and maybe an easier race), but all the same, the price simply looks worth taking the chance on.
Duke Can Lord It - 2.25 Southwell - Duke Of Firenze
Seven runners and you can make some sort of case for all of them, but it may pay to forgive Duke Of Firenze’s latest effort here, and give him another chance.
He looked right back to form when scoring in a competitive handicap here two starts ago, travelling well just off the pace and finding plenty once switched to the far side to make his effort. In fact, he was nicely on top at the finish and is only 2lb higher here, so you can’t complain from a handicapping point of view.
Slowly away again last time, his rider made the decision to bring him under the stands side rail, which in 5f sprints here lately is definitely not the place to be. Winner Mulzim came from stall 10, but ended up on the far side all the same.
The smaller field here should help in that regard, as he won’t get pushed towards the near rail, and although there’s only the seven, there should still be some pace on, with Ustath, Samovar and, if he’s on a going day, Red Stripes all capable of going forward.
Essentially if that last run hadn’t happened, he’d be a lot shorter than the price he is tonight, so if you’re willing to put a line through it and go again, you’re probably getting a better price than would otherwise would be the case.
Published at 1750 GMT on 31/12/20
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